"2015 China Shopping Center Development Report" Officially Released

In June 16th, the 2015 China was co compiled by China Chain Store Association and World Bank Richard C.

The development report was officially released.

The highlight of this report is the first "2015 China urban shopping center development index".

The index combines the average rent, vacancy rate, rent volatility and total retail sales of social consumer goods, disposable income per capita and all kinds of income.

The number of stores, respectively, reflects the indicators of supply and demand side, and will retail the 17 representative cities in mainland China.

The development level is divided into three stages, namely mature growth potential market, and this index will become an important data index for future industry continuity comparison.

The potential market is growing rapidly, and some growth markets are short supply and demand.

Mature markets: Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Guangzhou

Growth markets: Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Shenyang, Tianjin, Ningbo

Potential market: Suzhou, Dalian, Qingdao, Wuxi, Changsha

Figure 1: main city shopping center development index score

On the whole, the market level of the mature market is generally high. Although the stock of shopping centers is large, the overall supply and demand performance of the future market is still relatively stable, thanks to the solid fundamentals of the market.

The potential market, though the average vacancy rate of retail property is 10.8%, is 3 percentage points higher than the average vacancy rate of mature and growing markets.

However, the development of these markets is often more rapid and the average growth rate of income is higher than that of other markets. Therefore, in addition to individual cities, the overall supply and demand of the market is still balanced as the volume of development projects in the next three years is relatively limited compared with the existing stock.

It is worth noting that Wuhan, Chongqing, Shenyang, Tianjin and other regional gateway cities are growing at the market level. Because businesses can radiate the surrounding cities, and commercial land supply is abundant and the prices of the cities are lower than those of mature markets, they are considered to have great potential for growth, thus attracting quite a number of experienced developers of retail property development.

But over the past four or five years, the development of shopping centres has exceeded the carrying capacity of some retail markets. The vacancy rate of retail markets in individual cities has reached two digits.

Developers and brands are more interested in the mature market. The penetration rate of Chengdu's famous shopping center developers ranks second in the country.

In the three tier market, which is divided by index, mature market is also facing the diversion pressure caused by the cumulative future supply and the multi centralization of retail business circle. But thanks to the huge consumption groups and strong consumption power, especially the consumers' acceptance of new brands, shopping centers are more mature in the cities of the market, and the property forms are more abundant.

Among them, China's two super cities, Shanghai because of its stable rent growth has become the preferred choice of developers, while Beijing is due to high-end consumption power, the number of new brands in the first place.

It is worth noting that Chengdu has become a key city for expanding retail brands and developers with more advanced consumption concepts.

Among the 25 well-known domestic and foreign shopping center developers selected in this report, the number of developers stationed in Chengdu, Chongqing and Shenyang are among the highest in the country (see chart below).

Figure 2: number of famous shopping center developers (2015)

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China's shopping center has the highest volume and stock ratio in the world.

As of 2015, 17 large and medium cities monitored in this report have completed the total retail stock of 61 million 200 thousand square metres.

At present, there are 323 construction projects in China, with a total construction area of nearly 32 million square meters.

According to the world's most active Shopping Center Development Center released by CB Richard Ellis in April 2016, nine of the top ten shopping centers in the world are in China.

Figure 3: comparison of retail property stock and construction area in China, the US and Europe

Note: the statistics include 17 large and medium-sized cities in China, 16 large and medium-sized cities in the United States and 83 major European cities, including 20 thousand square meters of retail property.