Britain'S Share With A Is Hard To Get Rid Of Strategic Stalemate.

British referendum on Friday afternoon

It triggered a global financial shock.

In my submission.

This is a double bind for the United Kingdom and the European Union.

For the European Union, the process of European integration is interrupted, and the reputation and vitality of the European Union is damaged. It may trigger the "Optima free" in other countries (such as France, Hungary, Sweden, Holland, Denmark, Greece, etc.) and follow the lead of the referendum. The status of the European Union and the euro in the international economic arena will be significantly reduced, and the influence in the international political arena will also be adversely affected by the loss of the permanent members and nuclear powers of the UK.

Therefore, although Japan's stock market fell 7.9% on Friday, Australia shares fell 3.09%, Hong Kong stocks fell 2.92%, but the Shanghai and Shenzhen motherboards fell only 1.3% and 1.05%, and the gem fell by only 0.47%.

Moreover, Yi Gang, vice president of the Central Bank of China, has clearly stated in the Sino US strategic economic dialogue that "the central bank and China's financial regulatory authorities have made preparations for the referendum in the UK and are fully capable of maintaining the stability of China's financial market".

If necessary, the central bank will still intervene in the RMB exchange rate, and does not rule out the possibility of a reduction.

For Britain, its international rating will be lowered or its international status will decline, and its influence on European affairs and international affairs will also be greatly reduced. Foreign investors who originally invested in the United Kingdom may find another way out; the pound will depreciate significantly, and its position in the International Reserve monetary system will decline; London's status as the first financial centre in Europe and the world will be in New York and Paris, Frankfurt and Zurich; London house prices will plummet; the possibility of independence of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Welsh will greatly increase; and the growth prospects of the UK economy will become uncertain.

Although in the short term, Britain has had a sudden impact on China and China's stock market, and because of the loss of London as the second largest offshore RMB settlement center after Hongkong, RMB internationalization will face a new external environment. The strategic cost of promotion in Europe has greatly increased, and the pressure of RMB devaluation has increased.

However, in the long run, there are many positive factors.

For example, the position of RMB in the international monetary system will rise from the third to the second; China's voice of the United Kingdom, Germany and Europe will further increase; the UK and EU countries will be more dependent on China's investment and bilateral trade; the single European countries are more likely to abandon the EU's arms embargo restrictions on China and export sophisticated weapons and technologies; Britain and European countries may compete to break the barriers of trade protection and high-tech blockade, and realize the docking of high-tech industries with China's industrial upgrading; some EU countries and the central European and Eastern European countries that originally wanted to join the EU, such as Poland and Serbia recently, have established strategic partnership with China and actively participate in China's "one belt and one road" strategy.

In the early days of the war of resistance against Japan, Mao Zedong published the famous "protracted war", and predicted that the war of resistance against Japan would experience three stages of "strategic retreat", "strategic stalemate" and "strategic counterattack", which was finally proved by time.

This is a classic case of dialectical thinking and dialectical analysis of objective contradictions.

In this way, the Chinese stock market after the stock market crash is also applicable.

From 5178 to 2638, it is the stage of strategic retreat.

After that, the shock of the 2850 points and the one hundred points is the stage of "strategic stalemate".

Although market participants have repeatedly predicted and urged to enter the stage of "strategic counterattack" next month, they have been aborted again and again.

The near future,

The trend of diffusion is, I think, mainly around three main lines.

First, the high-tech sector represented by China's leading quantum communication in the world.

The two is the reform of state-owned assets, such as the Shanghai shareholders' meeting on Monday passed the backdoor scheme, Tuesday's eastern venture trading, Wednesday's stock price limit, Thursday Pudong Jinqiao trading, and the Chinese enterprises were suspended.

The three is the restructuring of private enterprises assets.

It mainly refers to asset reorganization without backdoor listing.

In my view, the relevant stocks of the three sectors that are dispersed in investment are related to the current "

"Phase".

Just as in the "strategic stalemate" stage of the war of resistance against Japan, people generally feel that they are the most severe and the most easily lose confidence.

But even in extremely difficult times, we must build up confidence, shrink the front line, clear the target, dare to fight and fight hard, and win the victory of partial "fighting".

This shows that this year, the situation in terms of fundamentals and policies is very complicated.

For example, the registration system, the fusing mechanism, the new board of war, the Federal Reserve, the depreciation of the RMB, the A shares into the MSIC fall, the strictest lending standards in the history of pushing, the combating restructure, the British deeurope, and so on, a series of sharp shocks to the stock market, which makes the A share out of the "strategic holding" stage and become extremely difficult.

Now it seems that the stalemate period will also lengthen.

Looking down, the 2800 point is 14 times price earnings ratio, the lowest valuation of the global stock market, and the vital interests of the national team with trillions of chips. It also involves the interests of hundreds of millions of investors and social stability.

Therefore, even if the United Kingdom is off Europe, the national team and insurance funds will buy 50ETF at a minimum of 2807 points on Friday afternoon.

That resulted in a turnover of nearly 650 billion on Friday.

However, looking upward, once the market hits or breaks through 2900 points, it often hesitates and fails to return.

How long will this "strategic stalemate" last? It needs substantial support from the economic, policy and capital sides.

In this regard, people should continue to do well in preparing for a protracted war, and not easily imagine the big market coming at the stage of "strategic counter offensive".

Fighting a protracted war does not mean doing nothing.

In the local hot spots, plates and stocks, people can still seek to break through in turn.

For example, the mainstream hot spot lithium-ion battery plate was outstanding, which lasted for a long time and yielded a lot of revenue.