Inventory For Half A Year: Inventory Steadily Declining Cotton Prices Rose Sharply

At the end of December 2015, at the central economic work conference held in 2016, it was put forward that efforts should be made to strengthen the structural reform of supply side.

"Is one of the main economic tasks of our country, about 11000000 tons.

Also facing the problem of inventory.

In April 15, 2016, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on the arrangements for the rotation of the national cotton reserves. The national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance decided to gradually and orderly digest the state reserve cotton inventory from 2016. In principle, every year from March to August, the national statutory working day will be arranged for the sale of cotton reserves, and the sale will be sold to a reasonable level.

In order to give the market

There is room for sale to achieve a smooth and orderly pition to the new mechanism. Reserve cotton in 2015/2016 starts from May, and the specific rotation time is the national statutory working day of 31 months in May 3, 2016, -8.

Half a year later, what's the effect of going to stock?

According to statistics, as of July 13th, the accumulative total of 1 million 273 thousand and 900 tons of cotton stored in the 2015/2016 warehouse was about 25 thousand tons per day. According to this schedule, it was estimated that there would be a turnover of about 900 thousand tons in August 31st, with a total volume of about 2 million 150 thousand tons (higher than the total 2 million tons produced at the beginning).

According to the national cotton monitoring system data, as of July 1, 2016, the national cotton sales rate was 98.3%, an increase of 17.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

According to domestic cotton output estimated 5 million 216 thousand tons, as of July 1st, the national total sales of 5 million 34 thousand tons of lint.

At present, domestic commercial cotton is nearly sold out, and reserve cotton has become the main resource supplier.

Due to the fact that the raw material inventory of textile enterprises is below normal level and the demand for cotton is very strong, the high turnover rate has been maintained since the reserve cotton rotation. The average turnover rate is 97.96%, especially in the late June 28th when no imported cotton was introduced, and 13 days from July to July.

However, although the current auction volume is at 1 million 273 thousand and 900 tons, the proportion of non textile enterprises participating in the auction of national cotton stores has reached about 47%, so that nearly 50% of the reserve cotton has fallen into the hands of traders, plus the time needed for the storage of cotton reserves. According to the consumption of 600 thousand tons of domestic textile consumption in the month, the textile enterprises are still nervous, and some small and medium-sized textile enterprises have already faced the dilemma of "no rice pot".

Meanwhile, as the CF1701 contract of zhengmian main unit climbed to a high level of 16030 yuan / ton again, the average price of the national cotton and cotton trading broke through 14000 yuan / ton, and the actual paction price of the 3128B class Xinjiang hand picked cotton was 14200-14400 yuan / ton (fixed), which rose 1000-1500 yuan / ton compared with January 2016. Even though the purchasing volume of textile enterprises is relatively large, the space for traders to give up profits is not large.

Textile enterprises are unable to digest such a high cotton price. They can only hope for cotton reserves. Recently, the voice of hope that the state can increase the output of cotton reserves is increasing. If the later stage of the state has introduced policies to increase the volume of output, reserve cotton will be stockpile faster.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, China's cotton production and sales forecast for 2015/16 is as follows: at the end of June 2016, the inventory at the end of 2015/16 was 1275.8 million tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was 176.32%, while the forecast value in January 2016 was 13 million 104 thousand tons and 182.75% respectively. In the past six months, China's cotton terminal inventory dropped by 350 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio dropped by 6.43 percentage points.

It is worth noting that the end inventory consumption has dropped for two consecutive years after reaching the extreme value in 2014/15.

According to the prediction of China's cotton market (June forecast), according to the national cotton market monitoring system released in early June, the national cotton sowing area survey in early June, if the growth period is normal, the cotton production in 2016/17 is expected to be 4 million 781 thousand tons.

The pricing mechanism of the reserve cotton warehouse will continue to play an active role in reducing the cotton price difference in the internal and external markets. Domestic cotton demand is expected to continue to rise compared with the current year, with a preliminary forecast that the domestic production demand gap will reach 2 million 580 thousand tons in the year, an increase of 588 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, and the process of stockpile storage will further accelerate.