No Obvious Improvement In Terminal Textile Industry

In the first half of this year,

The market is showing a trend of upward trend.

As of June 23rd, the textile index of the business community was 744 points, up 3.04% from 722 at the beginning of the year, up 4.06% from the 715 lowest point in February 17th.

Compared with the unilateral decline trend of textile index in the second half of 2015, the overall market of textile market has improved significantly after entering 2016.

Chemical fiber plate

Ups and downs are obvious.

The industrial chain of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) came out in the first half of this year, becoming a bright color of the chemical fiber board.

The price of related products in the industry chain, which ushered in the lowest point in nearly 10 years in early January, slowly entered a continuous rebound channel, of which PTA price rose 6.83%, polyester filament price rose at 5%~12%, PET staple price increased by 4.96%.

The first reason is that the central bank has dropped the benchmark, the macroeconomic policy has been warmer and the two sessions have become the catalyst for the hot market. The price of PTA has obviously increased in March.

Second, the core of international crude oil prices continue to move upward, and the price of PX is stronger, laying the foundation for the cost side.

Again, PTA traders arbitrage point price follow up, the downstream polyester industry to take this speculation with the rise.

In recent years, the viscose industry has slowed down its capacity expansion, and it has bottomed up in 2015. The current boom is still rising. Viscose staple prices rose 5.54% in the first half and 0.08% in the downstream.

At present, the chemical fiber industry has entered a period of deep adjustment under the background of excess capacity. The price of nylon and spandex has been in a "down and down" trend, and prices have reached a new low of nearly 3 years.

Among them, spandex industry from 2014 to 2015 experienced a new round of capacity expansion, the new production capacity intensive.

Up to now, spandex industry capacity has been expanded to 643 thousand tons, the capacity growth rate is 13%.

But downstream demand growth is slow. In 2015, the demand for spandex was 392 thousand tons, and the demand growth rate was only 5.9%.

In the context of supply exceeding demand, spandex prices continued to decline.

Cotton price showed a "V" trend.

In the first half of the year, cotton prices overall showed a "V" trend.

High inventory, low demand, and Spring Festival holidays and other factors have led to a decline in cotton prices in the first quarter.

As of the end of March, cotton (3128B) prices fell to 11694 yuan / ton, a low of nearly 5 years.

In April, the cotton market "bottomed out" and continued to rise, as of June 24th, the price was 12727 yuan / ton, in just 3 months time rose more than 8%.

The main reason for the rise in cotton prices was the tight supply of cotton market in April. As of the end of March, domestic cotton business inventories were 1 million 660 thousand tons.

Compared with the same period in previous years, domestic cotton business stocks are relatively low, and new cotton will only be listed in 9 and October. At the same time, cotton throwing and storage time is also postponed to May 3rd, causing domestic cotton futures prices to rise sharply in the short run, and just 20 days (April 1st ~21 days) jumped 30%, thus driving spot prices up.

Entering the May, the State Cotton Storage led the domestic cotton market, and the turnover was far more than the market expectations, which added confidence to the market.

As of June 24th, the accumulative total of 979 thousand and 700 tons of cotton reserves was planned for 2015/2016, and 953 thousand and 300 tons of accumulated warehouses were sold, with a turnover rate of 97.31%.

At the same time, the downstream production of gauze is relatively stable, prompting cotton prices to rise.

As of June 8th, the yarn production and sales rate of the enterprises surveyed was 99.96%, down 0.1% compared to the same period, and the inventory was 14.1 days, which was 5.4 days lower than the same period last year.

The production and sale rate of cloth was 100.45%, an increase of 10.2% over the same period last year, and the inventory was 34.6 days, which decreased 20.8 days compared with the same period last year.

The price of cocoon silk rose to a "dark horse" in the later stage.

As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the domestic dry cocoon market price stabilized at 83250 yuan / ton, or 1.65%, down 14.09% over the same period, and the market is still hovering at the bottom.

But the market has rebounded sharply since April. At present, the price of dry cocoon is 91100 yuan / ton, and the raw silk price of downstream is 324250 yuan / ton, both of which rose more than 10% in the two quarter, becoming the "dark horse" of the textile industry list in the first half of this year.

The main reason for this round of price increases was first boosted by the news of Guangxi's Bombyx mori reduction.

In the past two years, due to the long-term downturn of cocoon silk market, the number of local silkworm farmers in Guangxi, a main producing area of silkworm, has been decreasing this year. Local sericulture farmers or abandoned silkworms have chosen to do other work.

According to the relevant statistics in Guangxi area, as of May 15th, 2 million species of silkworm species were released in Guangxi, which decreased by more than 20% over the same period.

Followed by weather, during the spring silkworm season, there were more rain in several main producing areas, such as Guangxi, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. India, the largest importer of silk, suffered from drought. Bad weather conditions seriously affected the growth and development of mulberry trees and the quality of spring silkworms.

No obvious improvement in terminal textile industry

In the first half of this year, the terminal textile industry was stagnant.

In 2015, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 283 billion 849 million US dollars, down 4.9% from the same period last year, and the overall export decline over the whole year is far higher than the 1.4% decline of the national export.

In 1~5 months this year, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 101 billion 16 million US dollars, down 1.97% from the same period last year.

Among them, the total export volume of textiles was 43 billion 325 million US dollars, down 0.03% compared with the same period last year, and the total export volume of garments was 57 billion 692 million US dollars, down 3.19% compared with the same period last year.

It can be seen that the overall export of textile and clothing is still decreasing and no obvious improvement has been seen.

Textile and garment retail continued to slump.

Since May, apparel retail sales have slowed down compared with the same period last year, and downstream consumption has been sluggish.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in May this year, the total retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 5.9% over the same period last year, down 6.6% from the same period last year. Online sales of "wear" goods increased by 16.2%, down 14.1% from the same period last year.