The Internet Promotes The Experience Consumption Trend To Hit The Textile And Garment Industry.

The Internet is deeply rooted in the bone marrow.

Be a trend which cannot be halted:

Deep into the bone marrow, consumption upgrade experience is paramount.

After several years of development, the Internet has had a profound impact on the clothing industry in many dimensions. It is reflected in the following 1. aspects: the scale of online shopping is very important; in 2015, the proportion of apparel online shopping has reached 36%; 2., the growth of new markets (three or four line market rapid expansion / rural electricity providers), new resources (cross border business integration of global resources), new features (SOCIAL electronic business centralization), and new mode (customization / pre-sale); 3. cloud computing, such as /SaaS technology, and so on, which promote the efficiency improvement of all aspects of the industrial chain.

After 2012-2015 years of experience in O2O (Marketing Channel), the apparel industry began to move towards the Internet pformation stage of the whole industry chain and realize the reconstruction of enterprise value chain.

At the same time, the upgrading of consumption goes up to the next level. On the one hand, the acceleration of clothing consumption is catching up with the new trend, users are willing to pay for the consumption experience; on the other hand, the survival type consumption (commodities) is pformed into experiential consumption (service).

Two, service consumption has shown its edge.

The brand is changing all the time, and the flexible supply chain is the general trend.

In less than ten years, the brand clothing industry has experienced the prosperity, adjustment and resurgence of traditional brands, and the breeding, rising and differentiation of Amoy brands. Now the net red brand has just come to the fore, and is expected to become the next wave maker.

Through the quality of traditional brands and Amoy brands, it is easy to see that the success of clothing brands is different from that of brand management, such as brand operation (design, marketing, etc.), channel management (online / offline, user management, etc.) and supply chain management (production, logistics, etc.).

Traditional brands have the popularity / offline channel / industrial resource advantages, and need to actively promote the Internet pformation of the whole industry chain; Amoy brands are good at marketing, accumulate certain popularity and industrial resources, and strengthen the supply chain capability; the most important thing is the supply chain docking.

The core links of flexible supply chain include information flow and algorithm, speed up matching between supply and demand, adequate supply of materials, foundation of quick response, maximization of process modularization, intelligent equipment and Internet.

There are two ways to cut in: 1, reconstruct the production system with information flow and algorithm as the breakthrough point, such as Sinbad; 2, integrate upstream raw material resources, go through the industry, and solve the pain points, such as search for special.

From clothing consumption to pan fashion, service consumption has shown its edge.

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Look, there are two directions for the pformation of living consumption to experiential consumption.

1, consumers shift from purely buying clothing products to consumer related segments. Under this background, clothing brands / manufacturers actively pform their strategies, such as the extension of sports shoes and clothing brands to sports industry, outdoor goods / channels to outdoor services, extension of maternal and child products to pregnant and infant services, and creation of animation derivatives to IP.

2, upgrade from fashion oriented consumption to pan fashion consumption.

Women's economic domination increased, and her "economic" ecological circle came into being. Consumption demand extended from clothing to medical beauty / underwear / mother and infant, and male consumers' fashion perception improved significantly.

Under this background, brand clothing enterprises extend their strategy based on the main industry to create a pan fashion industry group.

Three, investment strategy

Brand clothing plate, terminal sales insipid, sub industry differentiation continued, of which the baby / sports sector maintained high prosperity, casual wear boom.

Processing and manufacturing sector, with the continuous development of dumping and storage, it is estimated that the price of cotton in 2016 years will be stable and slightly rebounded. The effect of the depreciation of RMB will be narrowed, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices will be narrowed to boost demand for cotton.

At present, the brand clothing / processing plate 2016 PE is 25/26 times.

Maintain brand apparel "stronger than big city" rating, processing and manufacturing "neutral" rating.

Based on the judgement of the short-term operation of the industry, it is recommended to grasp two main lines of investment: 1, the main business is well managed, the performance is highly determinate and the target of safety margin is available: recommend Semir clothing, search for special, Xinye textile, and song's.

2, based on the industry integration of the main industry extending to the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, we recommend the Maison culture (anime Culture) and Wordsworth (Social Business) to pay attention to the blonde Rabbi, Sanfo outdoor, Saturday and Rhine sports.

The core of Hong Kong stock is Anta sports (domestic sports shoes) and good boy International (baby products).

Risk factors.

1., the growth of the macro economy is slowing down; the endogenous growth of the 2. brand apparel enterprises is lower than expected by the endogenous growth of the channel adjustment; 3., the overseas economic downturn has increased the operating pressure of the manufacturing enterprises.

Four, stock analysis

Xinye textile (002087)

Release of capacity boosted business performance

At present, the inventory of cotton and cotton stocks has reached about 12 million tons. With the continuous development of dumping and storage, the cotton price in 2016 is expected to stabilize slightly.

The effect of RMB depreciation is superimposed. The price of foreign cotton converted to RMB is higher than the price of domestic cotton in May 6th, which is about 300 yuan / ton.

Under this background, domestic textile enterprises will have more competitive advantages, and the company will also benefit from this.

Looking ahead, the company's capacity will continue to release (Xinjiang production capacity in 2016 hope to contribute 6-7 billion yuan output value, fixed increase project 2017 put into operation).

In addition, the company's product mix will pform to high-end, and high value-added products will raise gross margin. At the same time, interest rate changes will also reduce interest expense, and the overall cost rate is expected to decrease.

A comprehensive estimate of the company's pre tax operating profit is expected to increase significantly. We expect its pre tax operating profit in 2016 to be about 9200 yuan, an increase of 155% over the same period last year.

Search for special (002503)

Through industry, explosive growth

Brand operation is pforming into industry.

Companies are engaged in the "tidal front".

Brand operation, R & D and production

Product sales, now to the "supply chain management, brand management, industrial financial factoring" and other businesses to extend the formation of integrated service providers and brand operators across the industry.

Performance explosion will follow.

In the second half of 2015, 10 tide cards were launched, involving men's wear / Fashion Ladies / Volkswagen / cowboy. The brand business has been revival and growth in the whole year, and the income / net profit has been divided into 19.83/1.94 billion yuan and 52%/58% increase.

In the future, the company will continue to consolidate its brand competitiveness in the three or four line casual wear market. With the help of ten tide cards, it will maintain steady business development. It is expected that the company's casual wear business will achieve a net profit growth of 20%+ in 2016.