Demographic Dividend Disappears And Textile Clothing Exports Will Shrink To Normal.

Because of the poor international economic environment and the downward pressure on China's domestic economy and the high labor cost, China's foreign trade situation is relatively poor. Similarly, as one of the main products of China's exports, textile and clothing exports also face greater pressure.

In the 1-6 month of 2016, China exported 125 billion 30 million US dollars of textile and clothing, a decrease of 2.63% compared with the same period last year, of which 52 billion 443 million US dollars in export textiles, a decrease of 0.91% compared with the same period last year, and export garments 72 billion 588 million US dollars, down 3.83% from the same period last year.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, China exported about 24 billion 14 million US dollars in textile and apparel products in June, a decrease of 5.27% over the same period last year, of which exports of textiles, yarns, fabrics and articles were US $9 billion 118 million, a decrease of 3.70% compared to the same period last year. The export garments and accessories were US $14 billion 896 million, a decrease of 6.21% over the same period last year.

With regard to the import of cotton yarn, the price of cotton has also risen sharply as cotton prices have risen sharply in India. The price of cotton yarn in India, Pakistan and Vietnam has also risen.

The price of C32 cotton yarn is about 24000, and the turnover is very low. Vietnamese cotton yarn, which is relatively cheap, is shipped to the end of August.

With the large number of industries in China and the relatively complete industrial chain, it is difficult for individual countries to replace China's position in the textile and apparel industry in the short term.

However, as China's demographic dividend has disappeared, the textile and garment industry, which is highly concentrated in labor force, has been greatly affected.

With the rapid development of textile and garment industry in other Southeast Asian countries, China's orders will gradually shift to these countries, and the reduction of textile and garment exports will become the norm in the future.

As domestic cotton prices rose sharply, the price of domestic cotton yarn began to raise the price after the cotton rose. The price rose from the previous exploratory increase to the present sharp rise. Especially from late June to now, the price of cotton yarn has increased to 3000 yuan / ton.

However, the price of cotton yarn has risen, though the price of cotton has increased even more.

Profits are still bad, and even enterprises with bad raw material control will lose money.

However, from the current overall situation, the rally is gradually being pferred from the current cotton yarn to the downstream cotton grey fabric, and the price of cotton fabric has also started to rise.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China's cotton yarn in June

About 159 thousand and 300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.67%, a decrease of 6.8%.

In 1-6 months, 962 thousand and 900 tons of imported cotton yarn were imported, representing a decrease of 18.68% over the same period last year.

2015/16 (2015.9-2016.6) accumulated 1 million 700 thousand and 800 tons of imported cotton yarn, a decrease of 10.54% over the same period last year.

With the rising international cotton prices, we expect the advantage of imported cotton yarn will gradually decrease, so we speculate that the import of cotton yarn will be between 150-190 tons in 2016.