When Does The Strange Scene Of "Thousands Of Horizontal Bands" Turn Over?

The recent market liquidity has been seriously diverted by the real estate market, resulting in insufficient liquidity in the stock market.

IPO rhythm.

If A share issue continues or accelerates, there will be a downward adjustment in the short term, because the liquidity itself is not enough, plus the issue of new shares, the market will be too long to maintain at 3000 points.

Since the beginning of this year, housing prices in the first tier cities have soared and attracted many investors to turn to real estate investment.

Over the past few years, A shares seem to have lost their dynamism in the past few weeks. The daily fluctuation of daily index is very limited, and the volume is shrinking.

The deal was slack and there were many long hours of no record of pactions.

What is the mystery behind it? What are the possible changes in the future?

In recent two or three cities, housing prices have also started to rise significantly. Due to the poor earnings expectations of the stock market, the signs of market liquidity turning to the real estate market are very obvious.

Because money is profit driven, the trend of hot money flowing to real estate is very easy to understand. Especially in the context of the shortage of domestic investment market, the real estate market's ability to absorb gold is huge.

In the short term, the liquidity of A shares will still be in the trend of being taken away.

The A share market is densely issued and listed.

This year,

The rhythm of issuance is basically unchanged. A rough estimate is that more than 20 new shares are issued and listed on a monthly basis. Such a rhythm has little impact in the early stage, but as time goes on and the volume of issuance increases, the supply of stocks continues to increase and the role of the withdrawal of funds after the IPO is constantly enlarged, the market's endurance to new shares is beginning to be tested.

"Thousands of strands" will inevitably lead to change.

In the history of A shares, there is a rule that a long market will fall. That is to say, after long term trading, the market will probably seek a new balance.

Judging from the current market situation, it is certain that after long term crossing, the direction of breakthrough will be chosen. If the direction is downward or upward, we should assess the following aspects.

Policy changes in the real estate market.

As the main reason for this round of capital pfer is the rise in real estate prices, it is important to pay attention to the trend of the real estate market.

We should pay close attention to whether the country will introduce policy control measures to the hot prices, and whether the measures taken are destructive. If the country tries to suppress the real estate prices, market funds will soon return to the stock market, forming a wave of obvious upward breakthroughs.

Global

Trend judgement.

At present, the biggest power to support A shares or the adequacy of liquidity, especially the externally imported liquidity, is an important factor. Judging from the valuation basis, it is not yet for A stocks to go out of the big bull market. So it is particularly important to judge the liquidity trend of the whole global financial market, such as the change of the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve.

The liquidity bubble in European and American financial markets will affect the A shares in the medium term, but in the short term, the pmission power has not yet arrived. Once the liquidity of the Euramerican market is pmitted to A shares, the probability of a surge in the market will be greater.