Cotton Market Gap Effect Will Show The Expectation Of Long-Term Rise.

According to the prediction of China Cotton Association, the total output of cotton in China in 2016 was about 4 million 607 thousand tons, down 4.4% from the same period last year.

Among them, the output of Xinjiang was about 3 million 608 thousand tons, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. The output of the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin was about 463 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 16.8% and 24.8% respectively over the same period last year.

In 2016, cotton consumption in China was about 7 million 230 thousand tons, and the annual production demand gap was 2 million 620 thousand tons, excluding the import of 894 thousand tons. The remaining 1 million 730 thousand tons needed to be filled by cotton reserves.

In accordance with the past storage strategy, the reserve cotton market will be the first to be around March next year. In the current period to March next year, especially when the market has lost the season of new flower concentrated listing, the market gap effect will appear, and the cotton is expected to rise over the long term.

U.S.A

The harvest rate was 39%, compared with 30% in the previous week, 39% in the same period last year, and 37% in five years.

In the week, the excellent and good rate of cotton growth in the United States was 48%, a slight improvement from 47% in the previous week, but 47% in the same period last year.

In the week, the boll rate of cotton in the United States was 93%, 89% in the previous week, 95% in the same period last year, and 92% in the five year.

Spot side: cotton index 3128B price is 15366 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day rose 7 yuan / ton.

Import: according to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in September 2016, 60 thousand and 600 tons of cotton imported from China decreased by 8 thousand and 600 tons, a decrease of 12.44%, an increase of 9 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 19.03% compared with the same period last year. In 2016, China's total import of cotton 654 thousand and 900 tons, down 504 thousand and 500 tons, decreasing by 43.51%.

In late October, the cotton picking rate in China was over half.

Mass listing and acquisition

Falling down, the price of lint sale has also declined, but the purchasing intention of textile enterprises is still low, and the turnover is scarce, and the domestic cotton spot market is in a stalemate.

At present, the Xinjiang class 3129 hand picked cotton price is 7.4-7.7 yuan / kg, machine picked cotton 6.3-6.8 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan / kg compared with the previous week, the price of cottonseed is between 2.5-2.8 yuan / kg, and the sale price of lint is 15500-15800 yuan / ton, which is 300-400 yuan / ton lower than the previous period.

The cost of seed cotton before high price was over 16000 yuan / ton after processing. Now it has been upside down with the spot sale price, and there has been a loss. Some processing enterprises have stopped collecting because of excessive risk or capital turnover.

Market dynamics, according to feedback from some southern ginning mills, the current purchase price of seed cotton in the territory has declined by 0.4-0.5 yuan /kg, resulting in subtle changes in the mentality of buyers and sellers.

The cotton market has entered a stalemate, the purchase price of seed cotton has dropped, the selling price of lint has dropped sharply, and the hand picked cotton has dropped to 15800 yuan / ton from the previous 16200-16500 yuan / ton.

But the purchasing intention of textile enterprises is low, and turnover is scarce.

It is still a drag on the market.

It is reported that the initial sales price of the machine picked cotton is 14800 yuan / ton, and the market price is 14900-15000 yuan / ton at present. There is still pressure on the short term market.