The Trend Of Seasonal Fluctuations In China'S Foreign Trade Is Still Relatively Large.

At present, the world economic and trade environment is more serious and complex, and the trend of economic downturn will not end in the short term. International financial turmoil, geopolitics, terrorism and other uncertainties, unstable factors and emergencies can happen at any time.

Faced with the signs that China's foreign trade is stabilizing and stabilizing, we must not be too optimistic. The task of achieving the goal of foreign trade for the whole year is still arduous and great efforts are needed.

In September this year, China's textile yarns and fabrics, garments and clothing accessories and

The value decreased by 16.7%, 8.5% and 13.4% respectively, and the decline was much larger than the overall decline in China's export value 5.6%.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's foreign trade imports and exports have stabilized in the first quarter. The import and export value, export value and import value of the first half of this year have decreased by 3.6%, 2.7% and 4.7% respectively. In the third quarter, they achieved double growth. Import and export value, export value and import value increased by 1.1%, 0.4% and 2.1% respectively, especially in August.

However, in September, the export value decreased by 5.6%, which was in sharp contrast with the increase of 5.8% in August. The import value increased by 2.2%, although it continued the growth trend in August, it still dwarfed the growth rate of 10.7%.

This turning point shows that the seasonal fluctuation of China's foreign trade is still relatively large, and the trend of continuous recovery is not yet stable.

Textile yarns and fabrics, garments and garments of China in 2015

The export value of labor-intensive products, such as shoes, has declined in different ranges, with a decrease of 1.3%, 5.5% and 3.9% respectively. In the first three quarters of this year, the export value of clothing and accessories and shoes continued to decline 1.5% and 7.2%.

Although the export value of China's textile yarns and fabrics has increased to 2.5% in the first three quarters, it seems gratifying, but we must be alert to the fact that the garment industry in the southeast coast of China is shifting to Southeast Asian countries quietly. The export growth of textile yarns and fabrics and the export of garments and accessories are decreasing. It may mean that the costumes which have the highest reliance on labor cost in China's apparel industry chain with competitive advantages have been pferred, and the share of China's related products in the international market is being eaten up by some Southeast Asian countries.

Once these Southeast Asian countries

With the completion of construction and operation, China's textile industry will face a great threat.

At the same time, data show that in the first 7 months of this year, the share of labor intensive products in the United States dropped by 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and the share in Japan dropped by 1.7 percentage points. In the same period, the share of similar products of Southeast Asian countries in the United States and Japan increased by 0.7 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points respectively.

CounterpointResearch, a market consultancy, showed that in the two quarter of this year, the number of mobile phone brands made in India increased from 10 to 35, accounting for 70% of the total output of mobile phones in the two quarter.

Despite the impact of new brand phones such as apple in September this year, China's mobile phone exports increased by 0.7%, while its export value increased by 9.2%, achieving double positive growth. However, in the first three quarters, the value of mobile phone exports continued to decline, exports dropped by 1.5%, and export value dropped by 3.1%.

At the same time, with the popularity of smart phones and tablet computers, the use of laptops has gradually decreased worldwide, and the volume of notebook computers has also been reduced.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's notebook computers exported 93 million 640 thousand units, down 4.7%, and export value dropped 9.8% simultaneously.

On the one hand, from the global perspective, from October 2015 to May 2016, only G20 group economies implemented 145 new trade restrictive measures, with an average of more than 20 new monthly measures.

On the other hand, as far as our country is concerned, the Ministry of commerce data show that in the first 8 months of this year, China experienced 20 trade relief surveys launched by 20 countries or regions, an increase of 49% over the previous year, and the amount involved was more than 10 billion dollars, up 94% over the same period last year.

The implementation of these surveys has dragged down the export of steel and other products in China.

In the first three quarters, the volume of China's steel exports increased by only 2.4%, which fell sharply compared with the 19.9% growth rate last year, and the export value dropped by 9.4%. In September, the export volume decreased by 21.8% and the export value dropped 11.9%.