Foreign Trade: The Fourth Quarter Should Continue To Stabilize The Good Trend In The First Three Quarters.

In October, imports and exports narrowed to varying degrees last month.

The main reason for narrowing domestic demand is narrowing domestic demand.

On the export side, Global trade atrophy is still continuing. Industrial pfer has also led to a sharp decline in China's processing and processing trade.

But the four quarter is the peak season for foreign trade. Christmas and new year's day will all be shipped out. The fourth quarter exports are expected to remain stable for the better.

The overall price of major imports has increased, which has certain support for imports.

However, the import growth of the fourth quarter will continue to run at a low level, due to the continued decline in processing trade and other factors.

"Our order is already full, and it is overloaded before the Spring Festival."

In November 8th, Fang Guobao, general manager of Zhejiang leading industry Co., Ltd., who was engaged in the import and export of textiles, told the business reporter in twenty-first Century.

He said that in the seven or eight months, enterprises also felt that the situation was uncertain, but at the end of September, orders began to improve.

Not only that, Fang Guo Bao's numerous peers, orders are also good.

Since the beginning of this year, the foreign trade situation has shown a zigzag trajectory and can not rise in a continuous period of time.

On the one hand, the world economic situation is still grim and complicated. Even if there is a recovery, the spillover effect in the short term is not obvious.

Under such circumstances, trade frictions are also increasing.

The General Administration of customs and the spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce have also recently expressed publicly that the situation of foreign trade has stabilized and signs of stabilization have not changed.

From the data of import and export in October, released by the General Administration of Customs in November 8th, imports and exports in October decreased by 1.9% compared with the previous three months. The decline was unchanged from the first three quarters, and exports and imports declined by 2% and 1.8% respectively.

In October, the value of imports and exports decreased by 0.6% in a single month.

Exports declined by 3.2%, while imports increased by 3.2%. Since August, exports have been growing for three consecutive months and the trade surplus has narrowed by 16.8%.

"The situation of import and export in October is basically in line with the current internal and external environment of China's foreign trade. It should be said that the complexity of foreign trade still exists, and the challenges will be more."

Bai Ming, an expert in business research, told reporters.

According to the RMB valuation, imports in single month in the first half of October were positive growth in third months since August, while exports declined for two consecutive months.

In response, some analysts believe that the continued rebound in imports shows the steady progress of the domestic economic situation and the recovery of domestic demand.

Imports continued to grow positively in March, continuing to verify that the "L" inflection point of China's economy has passed, and the recovery of indicators such as the PMI index has also been consistent.

At the same time, replenishment of inventory and price recovery are the key to sustained growth of domestic demand.

Bai Ming told reporters that the recovery of imports was affected by many factors.

For example, the downturn in commodity prices will lead to an increase in imports.

Although the share of processing trade is shrinking, its impact is mainly in the early stage. In the past two months, the import and export of processing trade has declined slightly, and has also played a positive role in the recovery of imports.

The steady growth of the domestic economy has also played a positive role.

In view of exports, many analysts believe that, on the one hand, the export base was relatively high in the same period last year; on the other hand, although exports were declining, the decline was narrowing.

At present, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to short-term export improvement.

It is noteworthy that in the first half of October, the volume of trade in major markets such as the European Union and Japan rose to varying degrees.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, imports and exports of China's trade partners to the EU, ASEAN, Japan and other trade partners declined in the first half of October.

Among them, the total trade value of China and Europe increased by 2.3%, and imports and exports were both positive.

The total trade volume between China and ASEAN is 2 trillion and 380 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1%.

The total trade volume between China and Japan was 1 trillion and 460 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%.

The total trade volume between China and the United States was 2 trillion and 750 billion yuan, down 3.2%.

"In the past two years, China's trade volume with the EU and Japan has been decreasing for most of the time."

Li Jian, director of the Foreign Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the twenty-first Century economic report.

From the data point of view, the European and American markets have shown a good performance. Li Jian pointed out that in the current international market, the recovery of the US economy slowed down, the European economy was in a weak economy, and the Japanese economy continued to slump, but IMF predicted that this year's economic growth rate of Japan could still be unchanged from last year.

In addition, China has strengthened its cooperation with Russia.

On October 20th, Vice Premier Wang Yang and the Russian side jointly hosted the second meeting of the Council for regional cooperation in Northeast China and the Far East in Beijing to promote more cooperation in the development of Sino Russian Far East cooperation.

Minister Gao Hucheng also attended the Eleventh China Japan ROK economic and trade Ministerial Conference in October 29th, and exchanged in-depth views on the implementation of the G20 summit's economic and trade achievements, the new fields and initiatives of the three countries' practical economic and trade cooperation, and regional and multilateral economic and trade issues.

At present, "stability is good" has become the most frequent adjective in the foreign trade situation.

Despite the pressure from the downlink, the spokesman for the customs and Excise Department and the Ministry of commerce both spoke publicly.

The trend towards stability has not changed.

Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, told a regular press conference in October 18th that the foreign trade structure was further optimized and the new development kinetic energy was gathering as the country promoted foreign trade to stabilize the policy and measures, and the development of China's foreign trade development remained stable.

But he also mentioned that this year will be the most difficult year for Global trade. We must have a clear understanding of the development pattern of foreign trade this year. The difficulties facing foreign trade will not be short term now. We need to make more arduous efforts to achieve the goal of stabilizing foreign trade throughout the year.

China recently released by the Ministry of Commerce

The situation report (autumn 2016) forecasts and analyzes the import and export situation in the four quarter.

The report pointed out that the current situation of China's foreign trade development is still complex and severe. Taking into account the monthly import and export base generally higher after September 2015, the pressure on imports and exports is still greater in the fourth quarter.

The report pointed out that the fourth quarter is the peak season for foreign trade. Christmas and new year's day will all be shipped out. The fourth quarter exports are expected to remain stable for the better.

On the import side, the overall prices of major imports rebounded, forming a certain support for imports.

However, the import growth of the fourth quarter will continue to run at a low level, due to the continued decline in processing trade and other factors.

On the whole, China's imports and exports are expected to stabilize in 2016, the foreign trade structure will be further optimized, and the quality and efficiency of development will continue to improve.

For example, in the first three quarters, steel export trade friction reached 38, and the amount involved was as high as 64.16 US dollars.

Bai Ming pointed out that next month, China's accession to the WTO will last 15 years, which will have a bearing on the status of China's market economy and is also one of the factors that may cause setbacks in the fourth quarter.

Many analysts believe that in the four quarter, there are many positive factors for foreign trade.

For example, since November 1st, the export rebate rate of more than 400 kinds of products has been raised to 17%.

With the support of G20, the entry into force of the trade facilitation agreement is expected to accelerate.

At the same time, although the new 7 free trade zones have not been announced this year, they will also be one of the positive factors of foreign trade.