Foreign Trade Out Of The "L" Foreign Trade Is Showing A Bottoming Trend.

In October of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 19 trillion and 560 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% over the same period last year. This figure is flat from January to September.

Customs General Administration released data 8 days, October, China

The total value is 2 trillion and 50 billion yuan, down 0.6% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports were 1 trillion and 190 billion yuan, down 3.2%; imports 860 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 3.2%; trade surplus of 325 billion 250 million yuan, narrowed 16.8%.

Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, foreign trade has been on the rebound track, showing a gradual and gradual narrowing trend. The total import and export volume declined year-on-year -12.6% from January to February, and gradually narrowed to -5.9%, -4.4%, -3.2%, -3.3%, -3% and -1.8%. The first 9 months and the first 10 months were all stable in -1.9%.

From a single month export data, it is also the bottom trend.

From January to October this year, the growth rate of exports increased by -6.6%, -20.6%, 18.7%, 4.1%, 1.2%, 1.3%, 2.9%, 5.9%, -5.6% and -3.2% respectively.

"We should see that steady foreign trade has achieved results.

In China's foreign trade, we have seen the L trend, no further decline, and the possibility of a rebound in the next two months.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that since July, China's foreign trade export index has been rebounded for three consecutive months.

In the three quarter of September, it rose to 35.8 in the last month, which also indicates that the export pressure in the four quarter is expected to ease.

In January, China's foreign trade export index was only 31.7.

As for the reasons for the rise of imports, Bai Ming believes that the first is the depreciation of the renminbi.

According to the dollar, imports are still falling; two is a large commodity price rebound, a rebound in prices; three is a series of domestic steady growth of the policy on the international market has spillover effect.

"However, the goal of stabilizing foreign trade is still a long way to go, and we must not take it lightly."

Bai Ming said.

An obvious phenomenon is that the import and export of customs special supervision zone, once an important pulling force, has declined.

According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months, the import and export volume that accounted for 10% of China's foreign trade value and customs supervision was 2.9% lower than that of the previous year.

Among them, exports fell by 5.8% and imports fell by 1.4%.

"As a result of some bonded type

More concentrated in the customs special supervision area, therefore, the decline in processing trade is part of the reason. "

In the view of Bai Ming, the output of processing trade in China is mainly labor-intensive products. Under the background of the changing international industrial pattern, many processing trade is turning to the Southeast Asian region with lower cost.

In the special area of customs supervision, there are more investment in processing trade, which reflects the difficulty of processing trade.

Data show that in the first 10 months, China's processing trade imports and exports of 5 trillion and 840 billion yuan, down 6.7%, accounting for 29.9% of total foreign trade, down 1.5% compared with the same period last year.

Among them, exports fell by 6.3%, imports fell by 7.3%, and processing trade surplus narrowed by 5%.

People's macro research report commented that from the perspective of trade, the growth rate of import processing and export processing decreased significantly, -6.8% and -54.6% respectively, and import processing trade continued to weaken.

"However, we should see that in processing trade, imports have fallen even more, and are not in sync with the decline in exports.

This is because more raw materials have been purchased locally. "

Bai Ming explained.

Another phenomenon is that while the export of private enterprises continues to grow, the export of state-owned enterprises is declining.

In the first 10 months, the import and export of private enterprises increased by 3.8%, accounting for 38.5% of the total value of foreign trade, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and 9.1% of state-owned enterprises' imports and exports, accounting for 15.4% of the total value of foreign trade.

Bai Ming said that this aspect shows that private enterprises are dynamic, flexible and easy to adapt to changes in the international market.

For example, in clothes,

On the export side, state-owned enterprises are hard to catch up with private enterprises.

But in the export of high-end equipment such as high-speed rail and nuclear power, state-owned enterprises occupy a dominant position.

Therefore, the state-owned enterprises in the future should give full play to their strengths and unique advantages and pioneer in the export of high-end equipment manufacturing industry, and private enterprises should play a greater advantage in labor-intensive products.