The Reason For Trump'S Rise In Gold Prices Is Still Falling.

Whether Trump won the US presidential election is good news or bad news for gold investment? It is an interesting and controversial topic in the investment field. Many investors believe that Trump's accidental win will cause serious market anxiety. Gold and other hedge assets are expected to soar, but the recent gold trend seems to give the opposite answer. Gold recorded a weekly decline this week for three consecutive weeks, and gold plunged to a low of $1171.21 / ounce on Friday in early February 8th. Gold fell by about 7% in November, and is expected to record the biggest monthly decline since June 2013.

For the investment opportunities of gold, Xu Zhiyan believes that the reasons for long-term gold price rise still exist. On the one hand, global monetary policy will continue to be mild and loose. On the other hand, the growth of nominal wealth will drive demand for gold, while gold supply bottlenecks have never been broken. Compared with other asset classes, Gold value Still in the depression. He believes that high liquidity and cost-effective gold ETF is an ideal "buy gold" tool for ordinary investors.

The Fed's interest rate hike in December is already a "nail in the face". The US dollar is expected to continue to maintain its current strength. In this connection, will gold continue to suffer from "Waterloo"? Xu Zhiyan, general manager of the Huaan fund index and quantitative division, does not agree with this. He analyzed from a more macro angle that in the long run, the reason for the rise in gold prices still exists, and the next two years will still be a sweet period to invest in gold.

Xu Zhiyan told reporters that the core attribute of gold is monetary attributes. When the economy is growing at a high speed, gold is hard to win all kinds of financial assets, but in the case of economic downturn and excessive currency, the value preservation function of gold is highlighted. At present, the uncertainty of the global economy has pushed up the demand for gold, and the asset allocation function of gold has been highlighted.

For the investment opportunities of gold, Xu Zhiyan believes that the reasons for long-term gold price rise still exist. On the one hand, global monetary policy will continue to be mild and loose. On the other hand, the growth of nominal wealth will drive demand for gold, while gold supply bottlenecks have never been broken. Compared with other assets, gold value is still in depression. He believes that the golden ETF with high liquidity and high cost performance is the ideal "gold buying" tool for ordinary investors.

Haitong Securities color Metal industry Zhong Qi, chief analyst, discussed the long-term positive gold prices from the perspective of supply relations. He pointed out that with the disorder of the global financial system and the frequent occurrence of geopolitical risks, gold is increasingly favored by central banks.

Over the past ten years, the structure of gold supply has changed a lot. The official sales which once accounted for 17% of the total supply had changed from negative to negative in 2009, while net buying increased by 471% in 2011 and 45.30% in 2014. As the "banker" of gold investment, the change of attitude of the central bank is one of the driving forces of favorable gold prices.

He believes that in the short term, the price trend of gold is driven by event driven. The December market is about to usher in the "black swan" event of the referendum in Italy. The market now expects this event to be similar to that of Britain not long ago, which will have a large impact on the overall gold market.

In the medium term, gold will remain volatile because there are still many elections next year, and geopolitical influence will be very great. Secondly, inflation expectations will rise after the United States starts the rate hike cycle. gold Demand is still strong.

Zhong Qi also gave a formula between the Federal Reserve raising interest rate and the gold price trend. He believed that the price of gold was negatively related to the real interest rate of the United States, and the link between the increase in interest rates and gold should also be taken into account in terms of inflation.

"Assuming that the US real interest rate is positive, people will choose to buy US dollars, because the US dollar can raise interest rates for banks, and if it is negative, it will buy gold. The future trend of gold can be judged from this angle. If we want to see that the real interest rate and inflation expectations need to be analyzed in the United States, there are fiscal and monetary policy data, including consumer confidence index, which is the key to inflation expectations. Zhong Qi said.