Registration System Does Not Fall, But A Bears Are Slow To Change.

In the past, Hong Kong stocks have been following the US stock market.

After the return of Hongkong, Hong Kong stocks are still following the US stock market. For example, the bull market is slow and long, and the bear market is short and fast. However, it is not as standardized as the US stock market in terms of the specific running form of the bull bear, because it began to be obviously affected by the trend of the mainland A share market.

Although the Hongkong stock market is a highly open and mature international stock market, its listing resources are becoming more and more dependent on mainland enterprises. With the opening of QDII, Shanghai and Hong Kong links and Shenzhen Hong Kong Exchanges, more and more mainland funds are entering Hong Kong stocks.

As a result, Hong Kong stocks tend to drift between American stocks and A shares, but more often they will follow the trend of US stocks.

After the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, more mainland investors will be snapped up.

Cheap small market value stocks are determined by the preference of the mainland shareholders for small speculation and bad fry.

But in a fair and fair game with international institutional investors, the Hongkong stock market will hopefully cultivate more mature and rational investor groups for us, including mature institutional investors and individual investors.

Since March 2009, the bull market in the US stock market has been going on for 8 years, which is really too luxurious. This makes the bull market only envy A shares for a year and a half.

However, interest rate hikes may end this 8 year bull market this month. Investors should be alert to possible fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks.

The United States released economic data this week. The US GDP grew by 3.2% over the third quarter. The US housing price index hit a record high in September; the US dollar index broke through 100 in mid November; the US consumer confidence index rose to 107.1 in November, hitting a new high since July in 2007.

Meanwhile, this week's Dow's index hit a record high of 19225.29 points. The S & P 500 index hit a record high of 2214.10 points, and NASDAQ's 5403.86 highest point hit a record high.

However, all this further strengthens the market's expectation of raising interest rates in December.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, spoke in Washington this week, saying that since the last monetary policy conference, the reasonableness of raising interest rates has been significantly strengthened.

Economic data show that the US economy is growing at a healthy pace, with a steady growth in the number of non-agricultural employment, and inflation is gradually rising in the direction of 2%.

With inflation closer to the Fed's target, this data may strengthen the market's anticipation of the Fed's first rate hike in December.

According to past practices and arrangements of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates (interest rate cuts), they usually increase interest rates continuously or continuously reduce interest rates for more than ten times.

For example, from June 2004 to June 2006, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 17 times in a short span of two years. This is a very aggressive way to raise interest rates and styles.

However, after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the global financial crisis was detonated. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates 10 times in a year, bringing the federal rate from 5.25% to zero interest rate.

According to the first two rounds

It is observed that every bull market in the US stock market lasts at least five to seven years or more, and the highest point in every bull market is about 20% to 30% higher than the previous bull market. The bull market has been up to 8 years in the current bull market. At present, the highest point is 19225 points, which has risen 35% points compared with the previous bull market peak value, which has exceeded the general expectation of the bull market in the US stock market.

Raising interest rates may be the trigger for the end of the 8 year bull market.

From QFII to QDII to RQFII, from Shanghai and Hong Kong to Shenzhen Hong Kong and then to Shanghai Stock Exchange in the future, this is the test and achievement of RMB internationalization and capital control relaxation. At the same time, it is also an inevitable choice for mainland China's capital market (including stock market) to open two-way to the outside world.

However, the market is risky and investment must be cautious.

participate in

The mainland investors must pay attention to the huge differences between the two markets in terms of trading time, trading rules and valuation standards. This is also a kind of unknown risk that investors must be aware of.

The Fed's interest rate hike in December is a foregone conclusion. Will the current round of raising interest rates end the 8 year long bull market? The answer is: the probability of ending the bull market is up to 80% to 90%.

By contrast, the mainland A share market has moved into another long period slow bear after experiencing the shock of the mad cow and stock crash last year.

As a rule, A bears usually need at least three to five years.

According to this estimate, in the absence of unexpected factors, the most optimistic estimate is that A shares are expected to usher in a new bull market in 2018.

However, if the IPO registration system can take root in the first half of 2017, A shares are expected to open a new bull market in the second half of next year, and it will be the first round of A shares in the real sense of "slow cow", which is expected to last five to seven years, just like the "slow bull" in the mature market.

This is a very happy and worth looking forward to the real "slow cow". Its arrival will be the happiness of all investors. It is also the "decent" and pformation of the A share market. Therefore, registration system reform is a good system for A shares, and it is worth the expectation and concern of investors.

However, it is worth noting that the IPO registration system is carried out. The biggest risk will be that the junk stock falls to the floor; the biggest beneficiaries will be blue chip and value investors; the largest legal and regulatory pressure will be securities intermediaries such as securities dealers, sponsors, accountants and lawyers who serve IPO directly.

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