The Long-Awaited Hong Kong Tong Has Finally Been Finalized And Will Be Launched Next Monday.

The so-called long awaited, long awaited Hong Kong Tong finally finalized the next Monday, but the problem followed, "good to see the light" rule A shares almost never broke, on the one hand, Shenzhen and Hong Kong through hype potential may not be high, Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong as a reference, the impact of incremental capital market is not substantial; on the other hand, in the early strong consensus expectations, Shenzhen Hong Kong's related speculation is enough, leaving room is not big.

Therefore, the closer the Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is officially opened, the faster the profits will leave, and the short-term market will become more volatile.

Monday Shanghai

Shanghai's composite index rose by 15.16 points at the end of the 3277.10 quarter, while Shenzhen's index rose 32.34 points at 11068.897 points; the Shenzhen gem index closed at 2166.05 points, down -1.48 points, showing a pattern of main creation and differentiation.

The study found that since October, there are three obvious gaps in the Shanghai composite index, and its market has been difficult to sustain upward. Today, the third gap is missing. From the perspective of technology theory, it is possible to have a downward adjustment of the "downward pressure".

In recent years, the position of Shanghai composite index was 3009-3014 in October 10th 2016, 3262-3267 in November 10, 2016 and 3262-3267 today.

From the perspective of technical factors, these three recent shortfalls will form a market retreat factor, and it is also the most critical technical factor that causes the market to be difficult to achieve overall performance or sustainability.

Judging from today's intraday trajectory, the Shanghai market has lifted Chinese construction and sub new banking stocks, but its effect has limited impact on other stocks.

Our research market has found that the recent rise in the number of new or medium term banks is not large, but has an impact on the index, and in fact has a "leverage effect" effect.

For example, the new bank shares are actually leveraged, and the current new bank shares account for only 10% of the total share capital, and 90% of them are not tradable, which in part constitutes a re accumulation of split share structure. Because of the large non tradable share and the low cost of the holders, the future constitutes.

It can be expected.

For example, the total share capital of Jiangsu bank is 11 billion 500 million shares, while the tradable share is only 11.5 billion billion. Its intraday push has increased the leverage fluctuation index with the total market capitalization index.

According to the study, this situation occurs when Shenzhen and Hong Kong link up. Due to the close docking of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the postal savings and breakup in the Hongkong market may lead to rational investment pmission. Meanwhile, the very low cost of non tradable shares forms a negative expectation in the future. We also observed that the weakening of the GEM market is very obvious. The reasons we have mentioned in the research report have been mentioned many times.

From the change of market capital outflow, the net capital outflow has obviously occupied the mainstream for a month, and the net inflow of small and medium funds is obvious.

It is observed that this obvious increase in the number of days in which the main capital outflows will continue to be maintained or difficult.

Technical indicators show that: at present, the Shanghai composite index and Shenzhen daily index line KDJ, w%r and RSI are in the high position, while the growth enterprise market is in the middle area. If from the weekly situation, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen index above are highly purified and overbought seriously, while the growth enterprise market is located in the central region.

The differentiation of the motherboard from the technical level is very obvious, while the Shanghai composite index can be maintained at 300 billion, no more than the 340 billion level of November 14th and 15, indicating that the market participants are more cautious.

On the whole, we believe that there are third gaps in the Shanghai Composite Index today. The high level of technical indicators will bring down the risk of technology. For the upcoming Shenzhen Hong Kong pass, we believe that it is a double factor of negative and excessive hedging, which has a positive impact on the valuation of better stocks, but for poor or high performance.

Negative influence, the pmission of mature market, or the differentiation of stock prices, should not be over read.

Today, the index still looks bold and vigorous - jumping up and going up to a new high, heading for 3300! Unfortunately, stocks are still rising or falling, and investors are always hard to escape the nightmares of earning no money.

The stock market is in a sluggish state. Is it related to the rule that a A share has never broken?

We believe that from the perspective of capital side, the continuous influx of off site capital is a matter of certainty. Therefore, the stock index continues to have a slow and tentative upward attack probability.

However, as mentioned above, the landing of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is likely to turn out to be a good one. It will suppress the short-term market and add a series of risk events in the early December. For example, the Italy referendum, the Fed's interest rate increase and so on, will have a greater impact on the global capital market. A shares are also hard to be independent.

Therefore, short-term market shocks are inevitable.

In such a big market, I believe most of my friends are very miserable: when the house index is blooming like a sesame seed, it looks like the bull market is almost coming. In the heart, all kinds of games are eager to be tried; while the other side of the stock market is stagnant, often losing the market, and even worse.

How to deal with the current trend? The key is stock selection.

The following types of stocks deserve our attention: 1 the recent IPO will be speeded up. The story has just started. Venture capital and gold control related targets are worth a try in the near future. 2, raising the cards is another big logic, without the slightest evidence of falsification. From the competition for controlling shares, the fight for dividend rights and the revaluation of internal assets, there will be more and more licensing logic and routines. 3, today, sugar futures are soaring, iron ore and other non-ferrous metals can't stop rising, and the price of commodities is still worth paying attention to.