Investment Guide: Debt Market "Halftime" Should Not Be "Careless".

This week, the global market showed a large stock market pattern.

On the stock market, global stock market has gone up.

Among them, the US Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.51%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.16%, the London financial times 100 index rose 0.96%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.30%.

The global bond market remained stable this week. The yield of Japanese 10 - year bonds remained nonnegative this week. The 10 - year treasury bond yield in the US rose to 2bp, and the yield of China's 10 - year treasury bond declined slightly 2.51bp.

In terms of exchange rate and commodities, the US dollar index continued to rise this week, rising from 0.16% to 101.50 in the year, while the devaluation trend continued, and this week depreciated 0.35% to 6.9151 yuan / US dollar.

Although the U.S. dollar is strong, but the overall commodities upward, WTI crude oil futures, domestic iron ore, coking coal, rebar futures rose 4.97%, 6.14%, 3.42%, 9.38%, COMEX gold futures fell 2.51% under the strong dollar suppression.

In view of this, this week, the major types of assets in the stock market, the bulk of the rise, the bond market leveling are:

(1) from the global fundamental level, this Thursday (November 24th), the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the November monetary policy conference, recognizing that the reasons for increasing interest rates in the future are getting stronger and stronger.

The US economic data, which was released earlier, has been rising steadily, and the market has more recognized the logic of the "return of the global economy", and the price of gold has plummeted all over the world.

(2) from the basic level of our country, there is no significant data release from Monday to Friday.

From the high frequency data level, the real estate sales data continue to languish, the BF operating rate continues to decline, and no further economic upward force has been seen. Therefore, the bond market has a long rally and the yield has dropped slightly.

In terms of commodities, environmental cut-off has led to a sustained rise in black prices.

(3) from the perspective of China's market, the bond market has experienced a steady adjustment for two weeks, and the yield has stabilized slightly.

The demand for configuration is still the "stabilizer" of the bond market, which leads to a strong resistance when the yield rebounds to around 2.9%.

In terms of bulk commodities, the market began to form a consensus on the easy rise and fall of commodities. Under the guidance of the stock and supply side reform, the black line continued to "go crazy".

Looking ahead, we believe that:

(1) the bond market still needs to "prevent traps".

From the perspective of capital interest rates, the current interest rate of funds remains unchanged.

This week bond market yields are stable and slightly down, but the repo rate remains at a high level. The 7 day mortgage repo rate continues to rise 18bp, approaching 3%.

We believe that

The improvement is the result of the central bank's intention to maintain a tight balance rather than a temporary one. The reason behind it is the real estate bubble and inflationary pressure.

Under the condition that the repo rate continues to rise, the bond market yield will still have a pressure of callback in the future.

Market investors need to pay special attention to China's PMI data released next week and non-agricultural data of the United States, or have a greater impact on the market.

(2) profitability is improving, and healthy cows will continue to be healthy.

Under the influence of higher price increase, corporate profits data continued to improve in October.

We believe that although the total economic volume presents the characteristics of L, the optimization of economic structure and the improvement of corporate profits have proved that the inflection point of L has passed.

We continue to look for healthy cows driven by improved profits.

The central bank launched a net operation of $40 billion through the open market operation, with a net liquidity of 612 billion yuan last week.

This week, the 7 day reverse repurchase 490 billion yuan, the reverse repurchase expires 5800 yuan, net return of 90 billion yuan; 14 days reverse repurchase 335 billion yuan, reverse repurchase expires 100 billion yuan, net 235 billion yuan; 28 days reverse buy back 750 yuan, reverse repurchase expired 180 billion yuan, net return 750 yuan; the month of the national treasury deposit net return net yuan.

Next week there will be 490 billion yuan 7 days reverse repurchase expires, 370 billion yuan 14 days reverse repurchase expires, 80 billion yuan 28 days reverse buyback expires, next week net total 940 billion yuan.

As of November 25th, the interbank overnight repo rate closed at 2.3449%, up from 0.94BP last week; 7 day pledge repurchase closed at 2.879%, up from last week's 17.3BP; 14 day pledge repo closed at 3.2981%, up from last week's 14.53BP; 1 month mortgage repo closed at 3.1194%, up from last week's 3.05BP.

This week, funds have basically maintained a tight balance, showing a tight state in the morning. The price of each period has risen in varying degrees, and the 14 day capital has increased considerably due to cross month demand.

The capital side is under the dual pressure of exchange rate and deleveraging, the central interest rate keeps rising, but liquidity is basically intact, and the central bank's intention to maintain stability is obvious.

Next week, the central bank's open market has 940 billion counter repurchase expires, the maturity is large, and the latter will be close to the next year, the capital side is still facing some pressure.

As of November 25th, 1 years of national debt.

Compared with last week's 0.36BP, it received 2.2294% and 10 year treasury bonds down 2.51BP to 2.8650%.

The key period of policy financial bonds, the largest upward bound is 3 years of state debt, up 7.7BP, the largest downlink is 7 years of non state debt, downlink 4.63BP.

At present, the credit spreads of the 1 and 3 year AA+ rated corporate bonds are 126.47BP, 102.79BP, 1 year and 3 year AA respectively. The credit spreads of corporate bonds are 143.47 BP and 120.79BP respectively, of which AA+ is higher than the 1/4 quantile and lower than the median, and the rest are all below the historical 1/4 quantile.