Short Term Cotton Market Is Still Slightly Higher In The Cotton Spot Stability.

At the beginning of the month, Xinjiang's 58-60 ton box car freight was restored to its original price from the previous reduction of 7%.

On the one hand, the freight rate is rising, on the other hand, the capacity is tight.

At that time, when the Xinjiang jujube, walnut and other agricultural products and energy concentrated out of Xinjiang, freight wagons were extremely tense; while highway pportation, the limit increased to increase the highway freight rate after the implementation, and most drivers were unwilling to go out for pportation because of profit reasons.

In the immediate need of replenishment of the downstream businesses, the Xinjiang cotton pportation seems to have entered the "bottleneck", and the market has become more enthusiastic, triggering the "double 11" market.

Road pport force, "bottleneck loosening".

The driver's resistance caused by the strict "overloading" in the highway department is weakening, and with the end of the short period of warehousing and warehousing, the pportation capacity of the motor vehicles has picked up.

According to statistics from relevant departments, the volume of road traffic decreased by 44% in the week of 5-11 November, and 12-18 days in November, when Xinjiang cotton highway exported 58 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of 34%, a decrease of 3% compared with the same period last year. Highway pportation has begun to pick up gradually in the coordinated and active efforts of all parties.

Meanwhile, the pport of fruits and chemical products will be reduced at the end of November. With the coordination of relevant departments, the recent railway pportation is expected to increase speed and ease the pressure on cotton production.

On the international side, the India government has banned the use of large denomination currencies, which will delay the export of cotton. This is also one of the reasons for the recent rise in the US cotton market.

India cotton farmers, accustomed to cash, were forced to delay the sale of seed cotton, causing nearly 1 million bales of cotton to delay exports.

India cotton can not be shipped immediately, which may force buyers to turn to other varieties, such as Brazil cotton and Mei cotton, which will have an impact on international cotton prices.

However, the market is expected to be short-lived, and cotton prices in India will eventually fall because of the high yield of cotton in India.

For China, India Cotton Delayed port and higher international cotton prices will support domestic cotton prices.

According to relevant statistics, in October, our domestic Treasury turnover inventory was 328 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 191 thousand and 700 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of about 140%, and the inventory level was only second to that of the same period in 2013.

So the mainland does not really lack cotton.

In this regard, cotton prices have not continued to rise.

On the disk, 16600 yuan / ton has pressure. In the case of Xinjiang pport bottlenecks loose, downstream replenishment needs mitigation, Zheng cotton or will fall slightly.

Strength is limited, wait-and-see is the main.

In terms of futures, Zheng cotton 1701 contracts showed a downward trend after rising on Monday, especially in November 25th, because of the announcement of the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance in 2017, the sale of cotton reserves will start in March 6th and the deadline will be temporarily set at the end of August.

Zheng cotton was frustrated and closed at 15670 yuan / ton, down 3.18% from the previous day's settlement price.

ICE cotton was affected by the December cotton delivery this week, and the market was stronger and weaker.

Overall, Zheng cotton and ICE cotton showed signs of decline this week.

New cotton picking is coming to an end, slow progress compared with the same period.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the survey data of 1837 households in 87 counties and 14 provinces in Xinjiang showed that as of November 25th, the national cotton picking rate was 96.1%, down 2.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than that in the past four years, of which, the picking rate was 96.4%; the selling rate in the whole country was 86.5%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared with the same period in the past year, which was more than the average in the past four years, and the progress of Xinjiang's sale was 86.5%.

This week, Xinjiang cotton was partly pported to the mainland, and the supply of the market improved. Meanwhile, it was determined by the time of the 2017 cotton reserve rotation and the market sentiment was warming.

However, there is still a short-term demand for replenishment in the lower reaches. The price of downstream cotton yarn has also been slightly warmer. According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of November 25th, the average price of 21S cotton knitted yarn with high quality knitted yarn was 22862.50 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from the beginning of the week.

The cost of raw materials continues to rise in the near future.

It has been warmer, but some textile companies are not optimistic about the market.

Affected by the demand for downstream replenishment and the limited influence of short-term cotton pportation capacity, the effective supply of domestic cotton market is tight, and cotton spot stability is slightly higher.

Generally speaking, the cotton market is still good in the short term, but it is still weak and there are signs of weakness on the fundamentals.

Cotton prices are expected to be stable next week. Zheng cotton slipped this week and is expected to fluctuate around 15500-16000 yuan / ton next week, supported by cost.