The Key To Deciding The Rhythm Of A Share Market Is The Effect Of Big Bubble Migration.

In 2017, the A share will go through the process from the structural market to the trend upward. The two quarter is in a good market, and the risk factor will be the dominant factor in the fourth quarter.

In the 2017 annual investment strategy meeting held yesterday, CITIC Securities said that China's economic distance was only one step away from the bottom.

A shares will benefit from the new deal in 2017, and will experience the upward trend from the structural market to the trend. In the two quarter, the market will be better, and the risk factors will start in the fourth quarter.

CITIC Securities said that from the inventory cycle, equipment investment cycle, real estate cycle, monetary policy cycle, financial leverage cycle and population cycle observation, a number of indicators consistency indicates that China's economic "clearing" has reached a certain level, "three go" to speed up the process of economic clearing, China's economic distance from the bottom is only one step away.

When the economy approaches the bottom, the macro policy environment will change, monetary policy will no longer be relaxed, interest rates have reached the bottom, liquidity may "return to" the real economy, prices and profits are at the bottom of the market, and the market will gradually become optimistic about the real economy in the future. The logic of allocation of the entire stock market may return to the real economy "growth" from "liquidity".

CITIC Securities estimates that GDP will grow by 6.5% in 2017, while retail sales of consumer goods and fixed assets investment will increase by 9.8% and 7.4% respectively.

Economic structure continues to upgrade, service consumption, "two child" related consumption and new energy vehicles and other bright spots.

The consumer price index (CPI) will be slightly downward, with an estimated CPI of 1.7% in 2017.

In commodities, coal prices are expected to fall slightly, iron and steel prices are maintained, and color and oil prices may rise slightly.

And producer price index (PPI) trend is conducive to a small increase in industrial enterprise profitability.

Benefit from real estate squeezing

CITIC Securities believes that at the end of 2016, the property market was at a high level and was controlled by the new deal, which affected residents' willingness and ability to deploy new real estate.

It is estimated that the incremental allocation of real estate in residential sector will be significantly reduced in 2017. The scale will fall from 23.7% in 2016 (GDP) to 9.7%, while the allocation of other assets will increase actively or passively.

The liquidity squeeze effect caused by the real estate new deal cooling the property market will lead to big bubble migration, which will affect all kinds of assets including A shares.

CITIC Securities also said that the key to deciding the rhythm of A share market is the impact of bubble migration on various prices, as well as policy responses, especially monetary policy.

Considering that the "three going" needs to be relatively relaxed in 2017.

Cooperation, inflation pressure is difficult to pmit from the production side to the consumer side, the pressure of capital outflow has been reduced: monetary policy in 2017 probably does not appear to be a signal of tightening and increasing interest rates. The "broad money" bubble will move under the influence of the new real estate policy, and it is unlikely to be punctured.

In order to maintain market fairness, and to protect the interests of other shareholders of listed companies, I think it is very necessary to lock out shares of shareholders of listed companies, and it is absolutely not just a small year, but not three years.

The author's suggestion is that 30% of the shares held by all the sponsors shall not be less than 10 years. This part of the shares will not be allowed to circulate in the two tier market, nor will it be allowed to pfer through bulk paction or agreement pfer.