Shenzhen Hong Kong Pass May Not Bring A Share Bull Market.

Come out in a thousand calls.

The joint announcement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission formally announced the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong in December 5, 2016.

Of course, although Shenzhen and Hong Kong can not trigger the bull market of A shares, but also to A share market investors to invest in A shares pointed out the direction.

Because this time, the Shenzhen stock market has 881 stocks, including 267 deep market motherboards, 411 small and medium board, and 203 gem.

These companies have at least been recognized by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Therefore, investors can choose the 881 stocks if they invest in Shenzhen stock market.

So, Shenzhen Hong Kong will not bring A shares

。

After all, the current market is totally different from that of Shanghai and Hong Kong in 2014.

For the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong, many people in the industry call it a major positive, and the market is full of expectations for it.

After all, the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong in 2014 has left a good memory for the market.

It is the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the opening of the bull market in 2014~2015.

And since the stock market crash in June 2015, the A share market has fallen sharply and investors have suffered heavy losses.

This year's market has been in a steady upward trend since February, but the trend of the market is generally depressed, and the market lacks the necessary money making effect.

Therefore, investors expect that the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong can bring about a sharp rise in the market as well as the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, which can eliminate the sense of depression in the market and bring the money making effect to investors.

First, the valuation of stocks is different.

The underlying stocks of Shanghai Stock Exchange are mainly blue chips.

In this regard, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the opening of the Shanghai stock market blue chips exist valuation advantage.

Blue chips not only have the lowest valuation in the A share market, but also compare with the Hong Kong stock market, and the A share price of A+ H-share companies is much cheaper than that of H-shares.

However, the situation faced by Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is obviously different.

Because the stock in the Shenzhen stock exchange is all stock in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the valuation of Shenzhen stock market has no advantage over the Hong Kong stock market.

As of November 25th, the average price earnings ratio of Shenzhen market was 44.34 times, of which the average price earnings ratio of the motherboard was 27.65 times, the small and medium board was 53.46 times, and the gem was 80.99 times.

The Hongkong board price earnings ratio is only 12.29 times (as of November 17th), the Hang Seng large cap index is 10.71 times, the Hang Seng medium cap index is 14.15 times, the Hang Seng medium and large stock index is 11.29 times, and the Hang Seng small and medium share index is 15.53 times.

Therefore, there is no advantage in Shenzhen market valuation compared with Hong Kong stocks.

Investors are hard to attract.

Two, investors' mentality is totally different.

Shanghai and Hong Kong through the time, the A share market has undergone a lot of adjustment, since the big bear market in 2008, the A share market has adjusted for five or six years, and the strength of the market has gone through five or six years of accumulation, and in these five or six years, "new leeks" also grow in large quantities.

It can be said that the whole market at that time was in a state of thinking.

However, the current stock market is less than a year away from the stock market crash, and adjustment and preparation in all aspects are inadequate.

Although investors want the market to go up, many investors are trying to help them up.

At present, the market is heavy, which means heavy selling.

Therefore, in terms of investor mentality, it is not specific to the bull market.

Three, the attitude of regulators to the stock market is also different.

Before the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, management hopes to create a wave of artificial bull market, so from public opinion to management, they are actively singing more for the stock market, and their policy faces are good.

After the stock market crash, the attitude of management and even high level to the stock market has obviously changed.

Guarding against financial risks is the top priority of regulators. Premier Li Keqiang has made it clear that capital markets should prevent "blowout" or "cliff style" changes.

For this reason, the sword of stock market supervision has been suspended for a long time, and the issuance of new shares is also increasing rapidly.

It can be said that regulators themselves do not intend to create a bull market.

Especially when new shares are accelerated.

The steady development is far more important than the rise and fall of the stock index.

Based on the above factors, it is difficult for Shenzhen Hong Kong to launch a bull market like Shanghai and Hong Kong even though the Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges have arrived.

Despite the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong, investors have high hopes for it.

Moreover, the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong has far-reaching implications for the A share market.

But in the short term, the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is good for Hong Kong stocks.

After all, the undervaluation of Hong Kong stocks is a natural attraction for investors, and the depreciation of the renminbi also allows investors to choose to configure the assets of Hong Kong stocks to achieve the purpose of maintaining value.

Therefore, the pattern of mainland China's capital going southward triggered by the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong will be further consolidated under the circumstances of the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

In particular, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the background of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong has introduced the Hang Seng comprehensive small cap index constituent stocks, which is unique to Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong.

This is an attraction for mainland investors who are keen on speculation in small cap stocks.

After all, the average earnings per share of the Hang Seng small and medium stock index is only 15.53 times, which is much cheaper than the A share market.

Therefore, in the context of Shenzhen Hong Kong, there will be more capital flowing to the Hongkong stock market, which is more conducive to the active stock market in Hongkong.