The Textile Industry Has Gone Through A "Extraordinary" Year.

From September to the present, polyester raw materials, led by polyester filament, have been rising violently under the strong cost support. Some raw materials such as polyester and nylon raw materials have increased by more than 30%.

In any case, this year's market trend is a foregone conclusion. Now, we are more concerned about the market trend next year.

However, various signs (see below) indicate that the price of chemical fiber products will increase to a higher level next year as the industry boom.

Polyester sector began to improve gradually in the second half of 2016. This phenomenon can continue at least for the first half of next year. Whether the boom in the second half of the year will continue can be seen in the recovery of downstream demand.

The worst is over. What needs to be done is waiting patiently for the dawn.

But what needs to be seen is that the textile industry has already made up for the stock shortage, and needs the continuous strengthening confirmation of the later demand.

Industry investors predict that the supply and demand pattern of polyester filament industry is undergoing profound changes.

The supply and demand inflection point of polyester industry appeared in 2015, because the inflection point of price cycle often lagged behind the turning point of supply and demand balance. 2016, especially in the second half of the year, the trend of polyester filament upgrading and price inversion is very sure.

Since the 2011 industry, the "PX big profits, PTA and polyester bleak" pattern will probably change in the industry chain. The profit of the industrial chain will most likely be pferred to polyester / polyester filament ends.

Today, the growth of polyester filament production capacity has been declining for 3 consecutive years. The continuous expansion of the production capacity of the Dachun, Xin Fengming, Sheng Hong and other large factories is expanding, and the capacity expansion tends to be orderly.

2017

With the downstream improvement and upstream raw material prices rising, the next industry boom index will further rise.

Tong Kun shares, as the leader of polyester filament industry, has a larger market voice.

In the company's recent announcement, it can also see that its confidence in its main business is full. "At the end of November, OPEC reached the first production reduction agreement since 2008, the oil price center moved upward, and the profits of the polyester industry chain will expand, and all links will benefit.

Since October, the price of polyester filament has steadily risen, and has reached a new high throughout the year, and factory profits have improved. "

The company said that it would continue to increase the main business of the filament industry, and it would raise no more than 1 billion yuan for the "annual output of 300 thousand tons of functional fiber projects", "the annual output of 200 thousand tons of porous flat feel fiber technology pformation project" and "the introduction of fully automatic intelligent packaging line construction project".

In classical cycle theory, there are generally 40-60 years of Kondratieff cycle, 15-25 years of Kuznets cycle, 8-10 years of the Zhu La cycle, and 3-5 years of the Chi chin cycle (i.e. stock cycle).

Since 2000, the inventory cycle has gone through five rounds, starting from 2016 August and entering the sixth phase of increasing inventory.

Generally speaking, the increase in inventory is accompanied by the rise in prices, and the de stocking phase is accompanied by a fall in prices.

At the same time, the rise or fall of prices generally leads to a turning point in the stock cycle.

From the beginning of 2016, commodities began to rebound, and the marginal profits of enterprises improved. However, with the lagging effect of bear market thinking and production inventory, the inventory is still in a downward stage, which is what we call passive passive inventory.

After more than half a year's reflection period, from August 16, enterprises entered the active replenishment stage, and later need to wait for demand to strengthen recognition.

According to statistical inference, this supplement

The stage is expected to last until around 2018 (the minimum duration of replenishment is 12 months, that is, at least until the three quarter of 2017).

Specifically, the strong periodic replenishment behavior or the weak periodic replenishment behavior need the need to verify.

And according to the law that the price touches the time ahead of the end of the replenishment period, it is estimated that the peak time of the bulk rise will be in the three quarter of 2017.

Since October, polyester sales have been accelerated, especially in December.

As of December 15th, POY and FDY stocks were mainly for 0-5 days, some factories were in negative stock, PET staple stocks were 7-2 days, part of them were in short stock for half a month, PET chips were stored for -5-2 days.

Low polyester stocks in the downstream polyester plant are generally low, which means that the polyester production rate will remain high until the downstream demand weakens. After the polyester plant accumulates part of its inventory, the company will consider reducing production and shutting down production.

There are two main seasons of polyester in one year, 3-5 months in the first half and 9-11 months in the second half of the year.

It is foreseeable that the current low polyester stock will inevitably lead to centralized replenishment before and after the Spring Festival, while high profits will also enhance the willingness of the polyester plant to start.

The factory will still maintain a high load.

In the second half of the year, if the terminal demand is obviously improved, or the overall replenishment stock will continue, the overall polyester will remain relatively high.

In the near future, crude oil prices are oscillating over 50 dollars / barrels, and naphtha and PX prices are also high, especially CFR China PX has stood at $860 / ton for the new high in the year.

Although the profit of the crude oil reduction agreement has been digested, the attention of the future market will continue to follow the relevant news fluctuations in the implementation of the production reduction agreement, but the tight supply of PX will remain in the first half of 2017. The depreciation of the RMB will also make the price of naphtha oil and PX and other raw material prices rising in US dollars.

From this point of view, the cost of the future market may raise the positive impact on PTA.

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