Can Mixed Reform Really Lead The A Share Market Out Of The Doldrums And Slow Down?

Since a week ago, the central economic work conference put forward that "mixed ownership reform is an important breakthrough in the reform of state-owned enterprises", the concept of mixed change has become the hot spot of the A share market this week.

China Unicom's weekly growth rate reached 15%, Eastern Air week increased by 21.2%, Guodian rose 17.7%, and Chinese ships also increased by 11.04%.

If calculated from the end of September, China Unicom's share price rose nearly 90%, and even China Petroleum's long-term super market carrier, which was not optimistic about the market, rose by 6.7%.

These are all achieved in the context of the decline of the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen stock index.

In recent years, the reform of the central enterprises has done two words: "merger", and from the enterprise level, the competition has been reduced at most.

At present, the mixed reform of "substantive steps" can not only make the private enterprises look like a bit of stock, but not give private enterprises greater discourse power, so it is impossible to cause qualitative change.

Let us first look at the statement of the central economic work conference: "mixed ownership reform is an important breakthrough in the reform of state-owned enterprises. In accordance with the requirements of improving governance, strengthening incentives, highlighting the main industry and improving efficiency, we have made substantive strides in the fields of electricity, oil, natural gas, railways, civil aviation, telecommunications and military industry."

That is to say, although the eighteen party has already pointed out clearly, "actively develop the mixed ownership economy.

The mixed ownership economy, such as state capital, collective capital and non-public capital, is an important form of realization of the basic economic system. "Allowing more state-owned economy and other ownership economy to develop into a mixed ownership economy."

But over the past five years, the mixed reform did not "take substantive steps".

At the same time, the efficiency and efficiency of state-owned enterprises are declining step by step.

In the 1-10 months of the year, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 8.6%, while the profits of state-owned enterprises increased by only 0.4% during the same period, and their central enterprises also dropped by 3.9%.

By the end of October, the asset liability ratio of Industrial Enterprises above designated size was 56.1%, down 0.7 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, while the debt ratio of state-owned enterprises was 66.22%, up 0.4 percentage points over the same period last year.

Why does the central government demand to take the first step in the seven fields of electricity and oil? First, because the monopoly in these seven fields is very high, such as the holding of PetroChina group is as high as 88%, and the five power groups are also mostly in 60-70%.

Two, these seven areas are not operating well, or are declining.

To sum up, these seven areas have come to the point where they can not be changed but not put to death. Let's take an example: the Eastern Airlines as the first batch of pilot projects has a gross margin of 20.6% in the first three quarters of this year, and the gross profit margin of the aviation industry in the same period is 20.79%, and the two is basically not much.

The net interest rate was 17.84% in the spring and Autumn period and only 9.63% in Eastern Airlines.

The net interest rate of the former is almost 1 times that of the latter.

Obviously, the central enterprises have huge personnel and overlapping agencies, borrowing money is easy to get huge debts, and the expenses and expenses are far higher than those of private enterprises.

Similar examples can be found in almost all industries.

In fact, in recent years

What is done is "merge" two words, from North South car to Bao Wu merger, the result of the merger is only that the Central Committee of the SASAC controls the central enterprises from more than 180 to 100 now, and from the enterprise level, the competition will be reduced at the same time.

The mixed reform of "substantive steps" required today is not just to let private companies participate in the appearance of a single stock, but a single shareholding structure will not change.

It is impossible to cause qualitative change.

As in December of last year, PetroChina decided to make mixed changes in its oil pipeline. The shareholding ratio of PetroChina was 72.26%. Besides big enterprises such as Baosteel and Xinhua life, it also absorbed a YOUNGOR, but its shareholding ratio was only 1.32%. What is the significance of such a mix up?

In terms of capital market, what kind of mix up can be regarded as a "substantive step"? In my view, there are two things: first, life is not going to go on.

In the field of telecommunications, China Mobile has nearly 20 billion profit a year, China Telecom has a profit of 70-80 billion, and Unicom's profit in the first three quarters of this year is less than 500 million.

The two is from the shareholding structure, it can give the "non-state-owned" mixed economy into a larger language right, such as Unicom's large shareholder holding 62%, if can give up 30% to BAT, oneself still has more than 30%, and can hold relative shares; and BAT can also send a director to participate in the operation.

Similarly, the majority shareholder of China Eastern Airlines held 59.8%, and China's largest shareholder held 51%, and so on.

As for PetroChina's large shareholders holding 88% of the shares, at best, the next subsidiary will have a little action, and don't have too much hope on the level of listed companies.

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