One Stone Has Stirred Up Thousands Of Waves Of Bond Markets Or "Wind" Has Come.

Last week, a fixed bond fund broke the record of the first raising scale in the history of public offering, raising the scale of 90 billion 900 million yuan to win the championship.

ICBC Credit Suisse Fund announced in March 1st that its ICBC Credit Suisse Feng Chun set up its bonds in half a year to complete the collection, and the fund contract was then set up.

It is worth noting that the fund raised only 3 days, raising the scale of 90 billion 900 million yuan, becoming the largest fund ever raised in history.

One stone stirred up thousands of waves, and the incident also attracted discussion among all parties in the industry.

The most heard is undoubtedly the envy of other fund companies.

The polarization of the current debt collection base has also become very noticeable.

Overall, the recent capital continued admission, the index positions continue to improve.

The bull market did not weaken significantly with the market, indicating that it was relatively cautious about the market outlook.

The short term is expected to slow down and is expected to hit bottom.

According to the statistics of Choice, the establishment of funds in the past 3 months and the scale of more than ten billion funds are regular opening of bond funds.

For example, in December 5, 2016, the Bank of China Securities and Amgen bonds were raised in 30 billion 169 million sizes, and in December 7th, ICBC Fung Yi opened a fund in one year to raise 17 billion 591 million.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, many scheduled debt products have been closed in advance, including the opening of the South and the regular opening of profits, the 18 months of the apocalypse in China and the European Union, and the three years of Societe Generale.

For example, the GF Fung Fu year was originally planned to raise from January 16th to February 16th, but the fund announced in February 7th that the total amount of fund shares and subscriber households raised by the fund had reached the conditions for the entry into force of the fund contract. In order to better protect the interests of investors, the fund decided to end the fund's collection in advance and no longer accept subscription applications since February 8, 2017.

At the same time, as part of the new debt fund has become the new development fund, the more debt fixing base will enter the ice age.

"The fund companies in the banking sector are good.

We are rather miserable now, and it is hard to raise funds.

A fund company member of a non banking department told reporters that their company has recently set up a debt basis, but the situation is not optimistic.

"In fact, it is not just to set up a debt basis, but the overall debt collection situation is not ideal, but setting up a debt basis is relatively heavy disaster area."

Shenzhen a fund company personage QUARTER White tells a reporter.

It usually ranges from 1 to 3 months, and the longest can not exceed 3 months.

Most of the funds have been raised for 1 months at the time of issuing, and usually can be completed within 1 months. Some funds can be closed early even in 2-3 days.

But a total of 35 bond funds have been raised this year, with 23 debt bases extending the recruitment period this year, and most of them are close to the longest 3 month period.

12 of them announced the announcement of the debt basis extension, and two products belonging to different companies extended the deadline two times.

A company's fixed debt has been publicly raised since December 28, 2016. The original subscription deadline is January 20, 2017, and the subscription deadline is extended to March 3, 2017 due to the poor recruitment situation.

However, in March 3rd, the standard was still not up to date, so the announcement was made that the raise time would be extended to March 27, 2017.

Even if the fund is successfully closed, its average size is smaller.

According to Wind statistics, since this year, a total of 35 bond funds have been issued, with a total share of 108 billion 125 million shares, with an average share of 3 billion 89 million issued.

However, if the 90 billion 955 million pieces of ICBC Swiss Xinfeng Chun were removed, only 17 billion 170 million of the remaining 34 debt groups would be issued, and the average share of the shares would be reduced to 505 million rapidly.

However, the largest share of the issue this year has been opened to Xincheng Yongfeng regularly, reaching 600 million shares a year.

Ji Bai described the recent fund raising situation: "recently we are looking for money everywhere.

If we want to extend the collection period, we can quickly find the bank's help fund, and it can just take the 200 million share standard.

However, at present, many banks are also facing the situation of "tight money". A lot of help can only save the urgent need.

For some of the regularly opened bond funds, banks are unable to help because of a longer deadline.

Regular opening of debt basis is an innovative closed debt basis. It combines the advantages of open-end fund and closed end fund, and adopts closed operation and regular opening.

Compared with the common closed debt basis, the regular opening of debt basis has improved the liquidity of products. At present, the closed cycle of regular opening of debt base is generally 1 to 3 years, and there are also short to 6 months or the debt base of quarterly restricted open mode, which meets the needs of different types of investors.

In fact, due to the above advantages, in the past one or two years, the opening of debt basis has been widely promoted, especially in the first half of 2016, the stock market has been shakedown, the bond bull market has continued, the market has a strong demand for low risk financing, and institutional funds also prefer fixed income products.

During this period, the debt maturity of each term was issued. In 2016, a total of 154 fixed debt basis were issued.

According to Wind statistics, there are 365 fixed debt basis (A/C share separately calculated), and the total size of the latest statistics is 568 billion 285 million yuan.

In fact, although regular open debt basis is more conducive to fund manager management than ordinary open debt basis, it does not need to deal with redemption pressure in the closed period, nor does it purchase large amount of diluted income, and idle funds are less.

High, in the interest rate center decline period, we can flexibly use leverage to increase revenue.

But this is the feature that made the performance of debt base dismal in the fourth quarter of last year.

According to Wind statistics, the average return of all bond funds in the fourth quarter of last year was -1.41%, while the average rate of return on debt basis was -1.78%. The average return of all bond funds has been 0.22% so far this year, but the average rate of return on fixed bond funds is 0.12%.

The volatility of the bond market also shows the lack of liquidity and yield of the debt based product.

Insiders told reporters that at the end of last year, whether it was institutional investors or retail investors, as long as they had invested in debt based clients, they could not timely redemption. They could only watch the fund's net value drop and worry.

Fund companies also have to communicate with customers every day, "fortunately, the net value is slowly coming back."

The above said.

From now until April 30th, there will be an open period of 25 yuan, with a total scale of 68 billion 633 million yuan, and the 25 funds have returned -0.23% this year.

Among them, 13 funds were opened before March 31st, and the total scale was 51 billion 350 million yuan.

Although the net value of the debt base has been rising, but because of the fluctuation of the bond market at the end of last year and some industry insiders still looking at the debt market this year, the reporter has learned that some of the debts that are about to expire may be faced with centralized redemption.

A newly opened debt relief company recently opened a second limited open subscription and redemption notice.

The fund's effective redemption was 756 million, and the percentage of redemption (purchase) should not exceed 15% because of the contract stipulations, so the total share of redemption was estimated to be about 676 million.

Shenzhen a fund company head of solid income told reporters that the recent centralized opening of the redemption of the opening of debt basis, do not rule out a large-scale redemption.

But at the same time, reporters noted that although there are redemptions of funds, but some funds think that the current allocation of good opportunities, and are quietly entering.

According to Wind statistics, in the past 1 months, 64 debt bases have been finalized in advance, and there are many kinds of debt securities.

Although the new development fund has been hit by two days of ice and fire, and the stock fund may also be concentrated redemption, it seems to be a sign of "empty" bond market, but some industry insiders told us that although the uncertainty of the bond market is undeniable this year, the value of the bond allocation is gradually highlighting.

Since the fourth quarter of 2016, there has been a significant adjustment in the bond market, and the volatility of the market has increased significantly.

Haitong Securities Jiang Chao said that from the perspective of monetary policy, if there is still more than one deposit in the interbank deposit, the financial leverage will not reach the expected level, and subsequent supervision may be further strengthened, thus affecting the demand of the bond market.

Trend opportunities still need to wait for "wind".

Shao Kai, vice president of Boshi fund, said that there are some differences in market views between fundamentals and liquidity. The short-term trading price is easy to overshoot the changes in liquidity and fundamentals. High volatility may become an important feature of this year's bond market.

After a substantial adjustment in the previous period, the absolute return level of the bonds has risen significantly. For the low risk preference funds, the current bond market has begun to have certain allocation value gradually.

Malone, manager of investment industry debt fund, said that after the volatility of the bond market since the end of November last year, the adjustment of the bond market is more adequate, and the market sentiment is more cautious in the short term.

Malone said that with the tightening of monetary policy margin, the current rate of return is still at the stage of adjustment and seeking top priority, and it needs to be cautious in the short term.

But with the return of liquidity year after year, the bond market may be slightly warmer, and the value of bond yield distribution is gradually highlighting, although large space needs to wait for a while.

Because the logic of "asset shortage" is not in place, the past pressure spreads and leveraged investment models are no longer applicable. The long-term opportunities in the bond market need to see that monetary policy has shifted from neutral to loose again, and the real economic growth has weakened again to support the bonds.

From the point of view of configuration, some of the securities are currently in value.

Jiang Chao said that according to the general lending and housing loan interest rates in the fourth quarter of 2016, the balance of assets in the bank was the best asset, followed by interbank deposits and State bonds, and the general loans and housing loans had the lowest cost performance.

At present, 3.3% and 4.1% of national debt and national debt have allocation value.

Malone said that in the near future, he mainly favors short and medium term credit debt.

Shao Kai believes that the current long-term interest rate debt has certain allocation value, but the paction value needs to be observed.

However, for bond funds, insiders suggest that we should carefully allocate the debt base that yields and liquidity can not be concurrently.

For most ordinary investors, it may not be the best choice to set up a debt basis too short or too long.

In order to strike a balance between liquidity and profitability, it may be the best choice to set up a debt basis in one year or 18 months.

According to Wind statistics, in the debt base that was raised earlier this year, most of the debt bases were open for 18 months, such as 18 days in Central Europe, 18 months in Jinan and 18 months in Ankang, Huili and so on.

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