Market Short Term Differences Now Follow The Main Line Of Policy Is King.

For a long time, China's stock market is inseparable from the background of "heavy financing and light return". In recent years, with the continuous surge of refinancing scale and the high pace of IPO issuance, it has further aggravated the pressure of stock market financing, and the excessive financing has become the most worrying problem in the market.

In fact, in the past 2016, the A share market has achieved the title of the first financing year in history. IPO financing plus refinancing and other factors, the demand for stock market financing has exceeded the expectations of the market.

Under the current market shock pattern, we should keep up with the main line of policy. State owned enterprises reform, "one belt and one road" and PPP theme stocks deserve investors' attention.

Reporter: the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities are getting weaker this week. Is the red envelopes market coming to an end after the Spring Festival?

Yu Aibin: since the beginning of the year

May have come to an end.

First of all, the current market is in a concussion pattern. The recent rise is a typical stage rally, and the current index is approaching the high point.

At the same time, the upward momentum began to decline significantly, so the possibility of adjustment is greater.

Secondly, the fundamentals that support the current round of market rise are mainly from the recovery of the economic cycle, and the improvement of profit expectations of relevant sectors. Considering the economic cycle pattern and the current interest rate has bottomed out, the inflation pressure appears. The short term cycle economic boom brings about relatively limited space and time to improve corporate profits.

Guo Xianmeng: the spring market is still on the way.

The two main lines of 2017 "

"And" mistaken killing white horse "have started, the second stock market has returned to the stock market, the stock market has been making up, and the market sentiment has picked up in the short term.

Logically, this market is built in the framework of "profit slow cow", and the market has gradually changed from hype "uncertainty" to speculation "certainty".

Data released in January showed that PPI continued to go up, foreign trade data exceeded expectations, developed in a favorable direction, and micro profitability of enterprises was also improving.

From the policy point of view, the policy of local state-owned enterprises reform has been promulgated in recent years. Pension funds have been commissioned to invest in operation, and stock index futures have been relaxed. These can enhance market sentiment and support the development of the spring market.

However, the market has not yet found a new investment thread. The hot spots are turning quickly, and the chips are loosening.

Yu Aibin: the central economic work conference has clearly put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position, focusing on the prevention and control of asset bubbles, improving and improving the regulatory capacity to ensure that there is no systemic financial risk.

Therefore, it is an inevitable trend for regulators to continue to strengthen and improve financial regulation.

The financial supervision measures that may be launched are focused on the following aspects: first, we need to strengthen unified supervision; one line and three will have to harmonization of information and regulatory standards; the two is to further prohibit the operation of capital pool and the mismatch of time; three, we should restrict the leverage ratio of structured products and restrain highly leveraged operation; four, regulate the scope of investment and the management of investors' Appropriateness.

On the whole, regulatory thinking will continue to consistently reduce leverage, control risks, and guide the capital to get rid of the false ideas. It is expected that the market will be relatively mild. Some of the highly leveraged financial products will be subject to a certain impact, and the stock market should be little affected.

Guo Xianmeng: Although the relevant documents are still under discussion, some of them are correct.

There are certain influences, such as the "double ten" restrictions on controlling the concentration of risks. The investment fund of a single bank financial product can not exceed 10% of the fund's size. It basically terminates the current channel of the bank's outsourcing through the customized fund and has been truncated into the stock market.

In fact, whether the financial leverage or the new rules introduced last week are encouraging the high-quality companies with endogenous growth to further suppress the expansion of the system arbitrage companies, improve the relationship between supply and demand of A shares, and guide the capital to get rid of the reality.

It will make the stock market managed driven stocks sell-off, which will make the performance improvement stocks popular.

If such a regulatory policy is introduced, the A share market structure and profit model will change dramatically. More and more investors will be concerned about ROE's healthier companies. Industrial research will show its value.

Reporter: which sectors are worth investing?

Yu Aibin: in the first half of the year, relatively optimistic about underestimating the value of blue chip sector, such as consumption, medical treatment and other stable growth plate may have some white horse growth stocks out of the rising market; in addition, superimposed capacity and the impact of supply side reform, chemical, building materials, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and other cyclical plates in the first half of the year will be staged; and emerging industries, growth stocks plate after continuous valuation adjustments, part of the second half of high-quality stocks are expected to have some investment opportunities.

Guo Xianmeng: now the market hot wheels are moving very fast, and the operation is not difficult. Therefore, reducing the time of holding positions and constantly weakening to stay strong may be a reasonable train of thought.

Because the market is still in the environment of stock gambling, monetary tightening and tighter regulation, funds will operate around the "determined" target.

From the point of view of investment, the first policy line is "one belt and one road". In the future, the market should also provide premium. In May, there is a "one belt and one way" International Cooperation Summit Forum.

"Along the way" involves many aspects. At present, only cement, steel and construction machinery have been shown. The cement sector has benefited from rising prices and infrastructure investment, and construction machinery has benefited from a large increase in overseas engineering orders.

The second investment focus is state enterprise reform and PPP related stocks. The supply side reform promotes the concentration of industries. Large volume, low price earnings ratio and blue chips with stable cash flow will become the basic assets of capital allocation.

The third important direction is that although the story of small cap stocks has been suppressed, the value of growth stocks has not disappeared, and investors can pay close attention to the "real growth" investment opportunities that have been adjusted adequately.

Yu Aibin: this year the market as a whole is a shock pattern, and potential market opportunities and risk pressures coexist.

From the risk point of view, there are mainly the following aspects: first, the issue of new shares will maintain a relatively fast pace; some of the high and small capitalization stock market faces bubble risk; secondly, although the current economy is in an upward cycle, the prices of producer goods and commodities have begun to rise sharply, and the risk of unexpected tightening of money caused by inflation exceeds expectations. Finally, in the peripheral market, the United States clearly enters the interest rate cycle, and the EU is trapped in a serious economic and political structural imbalance. The fluctuation of the external market will have a certain disturbance on the A share market.

Guo Xian Meng: the first potential risk point is the tightening of macro-control over expectations.

At the beginning of February, the central bank raised the reverse repo rate for all periods. Although the main purpose of monetary policy was tight leveraged, the main purpose was to leverage and prevent risks rather than to control inflation. But with the confirmation of the economic recovery trend, the rapid rise of service goods and industrial prices, especially the rise in oil prices, brought about inflation. The focus of macroeconomic regulation and control may shift, and interest rates tighten again to suppress the risk assets.

The second potential risk point is the slide in investment.

Since the introduction of the regulation and control policy, the financing policy for real estate enterprises has tightened gradually. Although various analysts have decided that the investment in real estate may not be tight at the present stage, the impact of tightened financing policy on investment will appear in the coming period.

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