Xinjiang: How Long Will The Long Staple Cotton Continue To Fall?

There are two main reasons for the slight drop in prices of long staple cotton recently:

First, manufacturers are eager to inventory.

A manufacturer in Akesu introduced a total of more than 3700 tons of long staple cotton in 2016, and now sold more than 1900 tons, with a surplus of more than 1800 tons.

Currently in Library 137 level.

The cost reached 21500 yuan / ton, 237 level 20700 yuan / ton, compared with the selling price cost upside down 300-400 yuan / ton.

As time goes on, banks will increase loans to repay loans, and enterprises must sell some of their cotton to repay loans before the end of this month.

In addition, many cotton enterprises and cotton traders believe that the price of long staple cotton will fall easily this year, so as to reduce losses and rush to ship.

Even some manufacturers say that the price can be preferential as long as the cash is paid.

Two, the city gate was on fire, and the fish fell into the pond.

Recently, the price of fine cotton has been fluctuating, which affects the long staple cotton.

As of March 27th, Xinjiang, Akesu, Kashi, Korla and other places "double 29" hand picked cotton platform pick-up price of 15900 yuan / ton, compared with last Friday fell 100 yuan / ton.

The quality of Xinjiang cotton is down and down, making the whole market pessimistic. Recently, traders and cotton mills that are buying cotton in Xinjiang are getting fewer and fewer.

The 3128 and 4128 spot prices of the the Yellow River River Basin in the mainland are 15500 yuan / ton, 15100 yuan / ton line (pick up and gross weight) respectively, down 100-200 yuan / ton compared with yesterday.

It is understood that at present, the price of long staple cotton and fine cotton is about 5000 yuan / ton, which is in the range of super low price difference. The trend of long staple cotton market with fine staple cotton is very obvious.

As a result, the price of fine staple cotton decreases, which directly affects the price of long staple cotton.

However, because there are still many advantages in long staple cotton, it is unlikely that long staple cotton will fall sharply.

The main reasons are:

1. In 2017, the area of long staple cotton decreased sharply.

The near future

Spring sowing in cotton fields has been launched. This year spring sowing is 3-5 days later than last year.

Judging from the feedback of cotton farmers, this year, we have abandoned many kinds of long staple cotton and made fine varieties of cotton.

It is understood that Xinjiang's long staple cotton is mainly distributed in Akesu and Kashi, with an area of 2 million mu in 2016.

This year, the expected area will be reduced to 100-110 mu.

The decline is due to the comparison of long staple cotton yields in 2016.

Substantially reduced.

This is a certain support for the current long staple cotton market.

Two, China's textile enterprises are gradually improving.

It is understood that after the Spring Festival this year, the domestic cotton yarn sales "sesame blossom high", especially in the combing high spinning field, spinning enterprises are mostly running at full capacity, and the company has a considerable profit.

As of March 28th, the price of JC80S100% long staple cotton in a factory in Jiangsu increased by 200 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the goods in the downstream area were more active, with abundant orders and higher demand for raw materials.

In the year of 2016/17, the sales of lint sales in the corps or local ginning factories were significantly ahead of the previous two years, and the operations such as futures hedging and arbitrage were gradually becoming more familiar. The profit situation of cotton enterprises continued to improve, and the main body of Xinjiang's acquisition did not drop. The farmers did not have to worry about the difficulty of selling cotton. In 2017, the stock of China's reserve cotton dropped sharply to the end of the 2016/17 year or below the level line, which paved the way for the late lint price rise. Finally, the trend of commodities could still be achieved under the herd effect caused by loose monetary liquidity, short term cycle replenishment of the world and the optimism of the global investment capital, and finally, the 2016/17 was still in the market.

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