The Medium And Long Term Downward Trend Of GEM Has Not Changed.

As of Thursday, the four main indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities (stock index, Shenzhen Shenzhen index, small and medium-sized board index, GEM) all appeared four consecutive Yin, and all showed an accelerated decline.

On Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities opened up and mixed each other. The two cities in the early morning went up sharply, maintaining a concussion pattern in the afternoon, and the two cities in the late market rose rapidly.

At the close, the Shanghai composite index was 3222.51 points, or 0.38%, with a turnover of 214 billion yuan. The Shenzhen stock index reported 10428.72 points, or 0.78%, with a turnover of 249 billion 600 million yuan.

Gem index reported 1907.34 points, or 0.72%.

The reason for the adjustment of the market is that the regulators should strengthen the daily paction management of the institutions that hold or rent the trading units such as securities companies, fund companies, insurance companies, although it does not directly affect the speculation of the new shares after the opening of the "one" word, but also indicates the management's attitude towards the recent hype of the new shares.

With the fall of the new shares, it directly led to a sharp decline in the large and poor performance companies in the gem and small board, and then gradually spread to the whole market, resulting in the accelerated decline from the small Yin line to the big Yin line.

In part, the main index trends of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities are basically the same. But in the medium and long term trend, the differentiation between the stock index and the gem has not been changed, or even further intensified.

The stock index is in a long way in the medium to long term.

To effectively judge the long-term trend change, we need to wait until the end of this round, and then judge the rebound situation based on the market.

If the market is not able to return to the high volatility or increase in volume, the long-term trend may change.

The downward trend in the medium and long term has not changed.

The rebound, which started in January this year, was close to 1980 points before three weeks ago. It failed to fill the gap in January 6th, and did not exceed the 2000 point line in the last year's December lateral box pressure area.

Gem refers to a long-term downward trend. If we want to change, we need to find an effective bottom first.

For example, if the next 1~2 months can effectively stabilize near 1800 points, then shake up again, and break through 2000 points, it will be possible to launch a new long-term trend. This process will be very long. The possibility of a new trend in the next 3~6 months may be very small.

In terms of risk, investors need to prevent consistent expectations.

For a certain event or market trend, the expectation of most investors in the market is basically the same. At this time, there may be a trend contrary to expectation.

This year, for example, many organizations are optimistic about the market. The main reason is that there is a demand for stability in the market and at least not to fall sharply. For example, IPO needs a stable market, there are important meetings held this year, there is a steady demand, and there is a need for the securities market to cooperate in the reform and landing of state-owned enterprises.

In fact, these bases do not constitute the objective basis for the market, and the capital and the real economy are the main reasons that affect the market in the middle and long term.

At the same time, when investors unanimously understand the needs of management, it is easy to form a completely consistent view, or at least not empty expectations, and the market is likely to have a lower trend than expected.

Plate hot spots, the recent month in the market is obvious.

The three main lines (liquor, household appliances as the representative of the consumer sector, along the road plate, sub stock plate) have the momentum of flameout, if the end of the market adjustment, still failed to appear hot plate, the index is more difficult to appear relatively strong rise.

According to the incident, there are two main lines to note: one is that there is still time for the "one belt and one road" summit from mid May, and that there is a possibility of further mining and speculation. The other is the military sector, and the catalyst we expect for the plate is being gradually released.

Recently, a spokesman for the Ministry of Defense said that the first domestic aircraft carrier in China is carrying out outfitting work. The progress is very smooth. Further good news will not keep you waiting.

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