The Pressure On The Cotton Market Is More From The Peripheral Market.

3 since the middle of last month, the main contract of ICE has been continuously consolidated in the 76-79 kg / lb narrow body. Due to the lack of guidelines for supply and demand, policy and peripheral commodity movements, the lack of confidence in the long position of multi fund and multi fund raising in the 80 cents / pound resistance position has reduced the proportion of China's cotton reserves to the Japanese market and the daily average price in 2017.

China's cotton planting area is expected to increase substantially under the negative pressure of the next entry into the "top, bottom" horizontal rhythm.

On the one hand, in March 31st, the United States Department of agriculture will issue the intention of planting cotton in the US in 2017, from the feedback of various survey organizations and agricultural departments.

Because of the price effect of cotton and soybean / wheat / corn in 2016/17 and the shortage of cotton exports in 2017, there is no suspense about the growth of cotton planting area in 2017. But considering that the rate of abandoned cotton in the southwestern cotton area is often fluctuating between the 6-20%, the increase is not necessarily an increase in revenue. Although the overall idea is empty, the bull market still adjusts the positions before the end of the month. On the other hand, the US dollar decline has not yet reversed the downward trend of commodities, which indicates that the global economic recovery is being dusty again, and the futures traders are very confused.

The Fed's rate hike further confirmed the tightening of the global money market and promoted the domestic market interest rate. The consumption link grew less than expected, and the stock of goods remained high. The economic data released in February, such as China and the United States, cooled to the hot commodity market, which led the fund to be more cautious.

From the survey point of view, since March, global cotton supply has been in urgent demand in 2016/17.

First, as of March 16th, the total net sales volume of cotton in the US 2016/17 reached 2 million 824 thousand tons, an increase of 66% over the same period last year, accounting for 97% of the total volume of exports forecast by USDA this year. Some exporters and international cotton traders have indicated that they have started to oversell. Secondly, Central Asian cotton (mainly Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and so on) will soon be sold out, and some of them will be sold out.

The quantity available for export has been less than 10 thousand tons. Once again, the signing and shipment of West Africa cotton is coming to an end. Besides the Chinese buyers, the cotton mills in India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia and other countries signed very rapidly. The quotation and shipping time of several large international cotton manufacturers in Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad and Sultan were decreasing. Finally, the probability of successful cotton counterattack in India increased.

According to the India Cotton Association, cotton production in India was 5 million 797 thousand tons in 2016/17. As of March 16th, the total amount of new cotton in India reached 4 million 46 thousand tons, accounting for 69.8% of the total output. However, the domestic cotton price in India was stronger because of the rupee's stronger against the US dollar and the export price of cotton yarn, which hit a new high this year.

The listing of new cotton has ended, and the domestic cotton price and market demand gap still seems to be high.

Some cotton traders said that in addition to China (about 8000000 tonnes of reserves at the beginning of the year), cotton supply in other countries in the world was basically tight in 2016/17, so ICE,

The spot market is only experiencing "trouble" for a short time. The pressure comes from the periphery and the economic level rather than the supply and demand itself.

Recently, some foreign and import enterprises have reflected some problems in the listing, shipment and contract performance of Australia cotton in the year of 2016/17. Traders' quotations on May have all been "off shelves", and some cotton traders are also cautious about signing contracts for shipping contracts in June.

The main reason is that due to the continuous rain in some major cotton producing areas in Australia recently, seed cotton harvesting has been affected to varying degrees. Moreover, the super storm Debbie is about to land, and the pressure of Australian cotton picking up continues to rise. Some ginning plants are worried about not only the acquisition, processing and delivery delays, but also the confidence in quality and rank of cotton flowers; the shipping date of 5/6 months is mainly concerned by many buyers from China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and so on.

Some Australian ginning plants and exporters are worried that the 5/6 month's overdue sale will be postponed, and some cotton companies hope to increase the price of Australian cotton in the 2016/17 year by actively reducing the listing resources, widening the price difference with C/A and EMOT, so as to achieve high quality and high price.

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