2016/17 Cotton Annual Cotton Production And Sales Data Gradually Become The Past.

USDA released the May cotton report, significantly raised the 2017/18 cotton production and ending inventory (inventories consumption ratio reached 29%) at the same time, significantly increased the total cotton production in India in the year of 2017/18 (an increase of 1 million 500 thousand packages over the previous year). Affected by this, ICE futures fell down, breaking the 77 cent integer pass (76.32 cents) under the main contract, while the US cotton export volume in 2016/17 increased to 14 million 500 thousand packages in the expectation of all parties, facing China, Vietnam, Turkey, India,

The purchase enthusiasm of Indonesia and other countries is soaring. It is no doubt that the US cotton continues to oversell. The United States Chen cotton or the use of 2016/17 Australian cotton instead of delivery has become the most important choice for sellers.

The author believes that the planting area, production and price expectations of 2017/18 are becoming the focus of attention of global traders, spinning mills and speculative organizations. The 2016/17 cotton year has become the past.

One, the United States cotton output up to 2 million packages is only started, and there is still room for adjustment in the later period.

In March 31st, USDA released a report on the planting area of crops. It estimated that the planting area of cotton reached 12 million 233 thousand mu, an increase of 21.42%. It was close to the high level of the previous market forecast interval, the largest planting area since 2012.

The focus of the market shifted to the abandoned rate and rebroadcast of Texas and southwestern cotton because the average rate of abandoned cultivation in the southwestern United States was 13%, which fluctuated significantly between 6-20%, but in 2017, although the cotton planting period was postponed due to rainfall (as of May 7, 2017, the US cotton planting progress was 21%, a decrease of 4 percentage points over the same period last year, a decrease of 4 percentage points over that of the past five years).

So with the weather, the progress of US cotton planting is expected to catch up. The total rate of abandoned cotton cultivation in the United States and cotton continues to be lowered (the USDA monthly abandoned rate is 6.95%), and the cotton output in 2017/18 increased by 15% or even 18% over the same period.

Second, 2017/18 year

Export pressure rise, whether the 14 million bags can be defended.

According to USDA, the export volume of US cotton in was 14 million 500 thousand bales (the actual export of cotton was 9 million 150 thousand packages in 2015/16), an increase of 58.47% over the same period last year, while in 2017/18, it was only expected to decrease by 3.45% over the same period last year, much lower than the growth rate of planting area and output.

Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, China, India and other markets have another key factor for high quality and high grade, no three silk machine picking cotton. Another key factor is that India cotton S-6 and J34 prices continue to hang upside down with the US cotton, and India cotton, Brazil cotton, African cotton and Central Asian cotton "cheap and not good quality" lead to the US cotton few competitors, and seize the international market share.

In 2017/18, cotton planting areas in China, India, Africa, Pakistan and South America, Australia and other major cotton growing areas have increased significantly, and can China export to the US cotton exporter when it comes to the high initial stocks? If the US cotton, Australia cotton and India cotton have advantages in price, pportation facilities will be very attractive to Southeast Asian, East Asian, Bangladesh and other countries.

Third, global consumption is expected to grow by 2.3% or some optimism, further adjusting to 1.5% or even lower probability.

USDA predicts that in, the world's cotton consumption exceeded third consecutive years, and the gap between the two countries was about 551 thousand tons (24 million 651 thousand tons of output and 25 million 202 thousand tons of consumption), of which Vietnam and Bangladesh became the driving force.

The engine of consumption growth.

However, according to the survey, due to the high cotton prices of India, Pakistan and other traditional textile giants in the 2016/17 year (the quality of imported cotton is slightly better, but the price is not cheap), resulting in low profit margins, no profits or even losses, the actual spinning capacity, output and cotton consumption demand have declined. It is questionable whether India and Pakistan can reach 5 million 225 thousand tons or 2 million 264 thousand tons in the 2017/18 year.

The production capacity of polyester, cotton, polyester and viscose blended yarn has been expanding, and the cotton consumption capacity has been diverted. According to statistics, India's relevant department statistics showed that the output of cotton yarn in India from April 2016 to January 2017 decreased by 2.2% compared with the same period last year, but the blended yarn output increased by more than 6%.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.