China'S Economy Is Improving: Zombie Enterprises Are In An Orderly Way

The data released by the National Bureau of statistics on 17 may show that the economic growth rate exceeded expectations in the two quarter. Experts believe that the trend of economic stability and stability has been consolidated, and macroeconomic policies will remain flexible and forward-looking. Although the adjustment of the real estate market will bring downward pressure on the economy, investment in manufacturing industry is expected to hedge the impact of real estate. At the same time, the probability of infrastructure investment in the second half of this year is greater than that in the first half. In the context of financial support for the strengthening of the real economy, the future economy is expected to operate within a reasonable range.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, China's GDP grew by 6.9% over the first half of last year. Specifically, the added value of industrial products above designated size increased by 6.9% over the same period last year, 0.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 10.4% over the same period last year, a 0.4 percentage point increase over the first quarter, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and a 8.6% increase in fixed asset investment nationwide, with a growth rate of 0.6 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Xing Zhihong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said that the first half of the economy has continued to develop steadily and steadily since last year, and there have been more positive changes. The favorable factors for supporting the economy to maintain high and medium speed growth and moving towards the middle and high end level are further increasing, and the steady and better development trend is more obvious.

Zhu Baoliang, director and chief economist of the state information center's Economic Forecasting Department, said that the good results of steady economic progress benefited from five aspects: first, the steady monetary policy and the positive fiscal policy had formed support for investment; two, the structural reform of the supply side had achieved the effect; the capacity and cost reduction had reduced the production and operation costs of enterprises, increased the capacity utilization rate of some industries, and improved the efficiency of enterprises; three, the stock cycle has promoted economic growth; four, the "discharge service" and "double creation" have continued to generate new kinetic energy; five, the world economy has shifted from slow recovery to moderate growth, stimulating the export demand to pick up.

For the two quarter of the economic growth rate exceeded expectations, the bank's chief economist Lian Ping believes that the main reason is the obvious acceleration of industrial production. China's quarterly GDP data are calculated by production law, and the correlation between industrial added value data and quarterly GDP data is the highest. In the first half of this year, the industrial added value of the above scale industries increased by 0.9 percentage points over the same period last year, and contributed significantly to the growth of GDP. In addition, stable domestic and external demand is also an important reason for supporting the steady economic growth in the first half of the year.

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that in the two quarter, GDP and the growth figures of industry, investment, consumption and import and export in June were all over expected. Of particular concern is equipment. Investment expansion The rebound trend of the "Zhu la la cycle" marked by the growth of manufacturing investment is further established, reflecting the inherent kinetic energy of the economy being being repaired. For the second half of the economic trend, Xing Zhihong said that in the context of the in-depth implementation of the supply side structural reform and the accelerated development of the innovation driven development strategy, the positive changes in the economic operation in the second half of this year will continue to increase, and the steady and favorable development trend will be further strengthened and expanded.

"From the second half of the year, although the adjustment of the real estate market will bring downward pressure on the economy, the investment in manufacturing industry is expected to hedge the impact of real estate." Zhu Jian Fang On the one hand, on the one hand, the improvement of the external demand environment brought by the global economic recovery will support the continuous improvement of China's exports, and then lead to the rise of domestic manufacturing production and investment; on the other hand, the structural reform of domestic capacity and supply side will be further pushed forward, and inefficient or inefficient supply will be further cleared, and the situation of oversupply of market will continue to improve, which will help maintain the relatively high level of prices of major industrial products, so that corporate profits will continue to be maintained at an improvement interval, thereby promoting the growth of investment in manufacturing industry.

From the perspective of infrastructure investment, Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities, believes that investment in infrastructure in the first half of this year is slightly lower than expected, mainly due to strong economic resilience in the first quarter and the two quarter, and there is no need to substantially boost the bottom economy with infrastructure. In the second half of this year, there is a greater probability of infrastructure investment than in the first half of the year. Especially in the four quarter, when the downward pressure on manufacturing and real estate investment is gradually reflected, infrastructure investment is likely to intensify in order to hedge down the downward pressure on the economy.

Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that overall, this year's economy will continue to be stable and stable, and it will continue to grow steadily in the past year. It is estimated that the annual economic growth rate is no less than 6.7%. From the domestic perspective, there are many favorable factors. The challenges faced by the current economy include cyclical problems and aggregate problems, but mainly structural problems. At present, we mainly focus on supply side structural reform to solve the constraints that affect the long-term sustainable development of the economy. At the same time, we need to seize the good opportunity for the cyclical recovery of the global economy and achieve a small increase in the economy in the short term.

"The fifth national financial work conference recently held has set the tone for the macro financial policy and financial supervision in the coming period." Lian Ping said that risk prevention, strong supervision, De-leveraging And the service entity economy will be the main theme of financial work in the future. Against this background, it is expected that macroeconomic policy will be stable in the second half of the year, and monetary policy will return to a solid tone, which may not be tight or loose. The proactive fiscal policy will enrich the details and connotations of policies, keep fiscal expenditure under pressure, increase the intensity of compensation and increase the livelihood of the people, reduce the non key expenditures, and continue to increase the intensity of tax reduction and tax reduction.

Xu Hongcai said that the overall tone of the future policy will remain unchanged. We should maintain a positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, but highlight the flexibility, pertinence and foresight of policies. In the context of economic stability and stability, we need to tackle tough problems and push forward structural reforms on the supply side. In advancing the "three down, one down and one subsidy", we should take more market and rule by law ways, cultivate market mechanism, let zombie enterprises exit orderly and adjust the industrial structure. For the second half of the liquidity situation, Zhu Jian Fang predicts that there is a possibility of improvement on the margin of liquidity, but in the context of "deleveraging and risk prevention", it is unrealistic to relax liquidity substantially. Fiscal policy will continue to grow steadily and prevent risks.

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