Storage Cotton Round The End Of The Closing Time, The Yarn Continues To Fall.

The global economy continues to grow moderately, the Fed's rate hike is expected to weaken, domestic economic data are stable, and financial regulation is tightened.

Domestic and foreign cotton prices are stable, yarn prices continue to fall, the price difference between inside and outside yarn cotton is further narrowed.

1. Price trend

(1) cotton prices

This week, domestic cotton spot prices continued to remain weak and stable, zhengcotton futures rebounded, international cotton spot prices remained stable, India and Pakistan cotton prices rose, ICE cotton continued to weaken (Table 1).

(two) cotton yarn, polyester and short price

This week, the price of domestic cotton yarn did not change. The price of polyester and cotton rose sharply, and the price of foreign yarn continued to fall (Table 2).

(three) price difference

1, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened slightly, and the price difference between China and India Pakistan has further narrowed.

In July 13th, the import cost of the international cotton index (M) was 14065 yuan / ton (1% customs duties, customs rates, the same below), which was lower than the domestic standard of 1771 yuan / ton, the price difference increased by 40 yuan / ton compared with last week; the cost of import of S-6 cotton in India was 14733 yuan / ton, 1103 yuan / ton lower than domestic cotton price, and the price difference narrowed 292 yuan / ton last week; the domestic standard level in Pakistan

The cost of import of RMB is 12481 yuan / ton, 3355 yuan lower than domestic cotton price, and the price difference is 167 yuan / ton less than last week.

2, the price difference between inside and outside cotton yarn is reduced again.

32 branches of Vietnam

23299 yuan / ton (the cost of imported RMB), which is 84 yuan / ton higher than that of China's domestic 32 pure cotton yarn, narrowed the price difference by 199 yuan / ton compared with last week. India's 32 pure cotton yarn is 23605 yuan / ton, which is 390 yuan / ton higher than that of China's 32 pure cotton yarn, and the price difference is reduced by 125 yuan / ton compared with that of last week. Indonesia's 32 pure cotton yarn is 23777 yuan / ton, which is higher than that of China's domestic pure cotton yarn.

3, domestic yarn cotton, polyester cotton price difference narrowed.

This week, the difference between domestic yarn and cotton price was 7379 yuan / ton (32 cotton and pure cotton yarn price -3128B cotton price), which was reduced by 14 yuan / ton compared with last week. The difference between polyester and cotton price was 7596 yuan / ton (3128B cotton price polyester staple fiber price), narrowing 416 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Two. Fundamentals

The auction rate of reserve cotton increased and spot sales increased.

On the 7-13 th of July, the amount of cotton reserves was 149 thousand and 700 tons, and the actual turnover was 102 thousand and 500 tons. The turnover rate was 68.49%, up 14.91 percentage points from last week, and the average price was 14692 yuan / ton, down 143 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Among them, the Xinjiang reserve cotton heat is not reduced, the highest increase of 2860 yuan / ton; real estate reserve cotton turnover 50 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 24 thousand and 400 tons compared with last week.

Recently, cotton has gradually entered the flowering and boll stage in China, and overall growth is slightly better than last year.

With the approaching of new cotton listing, business enterprises have stepped up the sale of lint.

Downstream pure cotton yarn prices continue to weaken, high yarn is relatively large.

Affected by the short price increase, the price of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn has gone up slightly.

India cotton production increased.

The new flowers are on the market.

In July, the US Department of agriculture continued to increase global cotton production in 2017/18. Cotton production in India increased by 218 thousand tons from last month. In addition to China, the output of cotton in the world increased by more than 2 million 687 thousand tons, 27 thousand tons higher than the previous month, and the ending inventory increased by 222 thousand tons from the previous month.

As of July 6th, the signing volume of US cotton net exports totaled 1 million 30 thousand tons in 2017/18, an increase of 584 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 30%, completing the USDA export forecast of 35%, up from 14% in the same period last year.

At present, cotton resources in the international market are decreasing gradually in 2016/17, the export rate of Australia cotton has exceeded 80%, and African cotton and Uzbekistan cotton are also going to be sold out, and India cotton is relatively more available.

In recent years, cotton demand in Brazil has obviously increased, and Pakistan cotton is also on the market.

Three, macroeconomic situation

US interest rate hike is expected to weaken again in the year.

Recently, the chairman of the Federal Reserve emphasized the incremental interest rate stance. The US economic Brown book shows that the short-term US economic growth is from weak to moderate.

Industrial output in the euro area rose 1.3% in May, up 4% from the same period last year, and the economic outlook is promising.

In June, the national consumer price index (CPI) in China decreased by 0.2%, an increase of 1.5% compared with the same period last year, and the producer price index (PPI) of industrial producer fell by 0.2%, up 5.5% compared with the same period last year. In June, the broad money growth rate (M2) increased by 9.4% compared with the same period last year, a new low in history. The growth rate decreased by 0.2 compared with the same period last year, and the rate of decline was 2.4 percentage points lower.

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