Seasonal Adjustment Demand For Cotton Prices

According to the world clothing shoes and hats net, last week, Zheng cotton futures price hit "four successive Yin" and fell short of the recent 15000 yuan / ton important support position.

Analysts believe that, at the end of the current dumping, the market impact of the return to neutral, weak outside the lack of support for Zheng cotton, cotton new works have been listed, cotton prices are expected to have seasonal adjustment needs.

Cotton prices face adjustment

On the outside side, the US Department of agriculture's October supply and demand report lowered the output of new cotton in the United States, but it was significantly lower than expected by the two hurricanes.

At the same time, the US cotton export sales data is weak, which is insufficient for supporting the disk.

Under the expected global high yield, the international cotton price is weak and volatile.

The weekly export sales report released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) showed that as of October 12th, the US 2017/2018 export of cotton sold in the United States was 253200 net packs, an increase of 64% over the previous week.

The weekly shipment volume of cotton was 86100 packs, the lowest in the market year, 27% less than the previous week.

Analysts believe that the weakness of shipping data offset the positive effect of the rebound in sales data, and the ICE cotton overall was empty.

Domestic dumping and storage, at the end of the current year, the new and old cotton seamless handover, cotton prices smooth pition, the impact of the return to neutral.

Moreover, it is currently in the process of being in operation.

New product picking and listing stage.

According to Fangzheng medium futures agricultural products group, the current cotton picking progress is speeding up, the inland progress is faster, Hebei area has more than half.

"Because cotton quality is better this year, labor costs increase and cotton costs increase, cotton farmers have higher target prices."

"In recent years, cotton picking up in all parts of the country has not been optimistic. The sales of new cotton on the market are not optimistic, and the running rate of ginning plants is low.

Follow up new flowers will be on sale.

There will be some pressure or seasonal adjustment needs.

However, under the background of annual gap, the price adjustment space is expected to be limited.

On the other hand, the order of textile enterprises has gradually resumed, the price of cotton textile products has rebounded in an all-round way, the advantage of outer yarn has emerged, the export of internal yarns has been affected, and the price of yarn has also been under pressure.

But compared to cotton, the price of cotton yarn has declined, and the price difference between yarn and flower has increased.

The team analyzed.

Cotton yarn positions are basically arbitrage orders.

Spot market, as of last Friday, the domestic lint spot price remained stable. At present, the price of cotton linen three cotton linen factory price is 15000 yuan / ton -15900 yuan / ton, which is unchanged from the previous week.

As for seed cotton purchase, it is understood that the price of seed cotton in Xinjiang is generally above 7 yuan / kg, and the six Division in Xinjiang is priced at 7 yuan / kg (38.5% of lint, length 28mm), and the increase of 0.05 yuan per kilogram per kilogram adds an increase of 0.1 yuan / kg for clothes, which is higher than that of the same period last year.

"Because the price of seed cotton is still high, the current running rate of the cotton mill is still low, and there is a limited source of lint goods in the hands of the manufacturers, and some manufacturers are still holding a good price temporarily, so that the price of lint is difficult to fall."

The founder's futures group explained.

Guangzhou futures agricultural research group Xie Ziqi analysis, because the original textile enterprises hoarding national storage cotton, inventory is relatively abundant, new flower sales is more difficult.

In addition, the high price difference between the inside and outside cotton prices and the expected new flowers and high output all constitute a great pressure on the uplink of cotton prices.

The overall market is expected to be neutral.

The price difference between cotton and cotton yarn remains high.

It is worth mentioning that the cotton futures contract 1801 and the cotton yarn arbitrage holds the same number of hands on the disk.

"That is to say, the existing cotton yarn positions are basically holders of yarn yarn arbitrage.

If this part of the position does not enter the delivery month, it needs to reverse Arbitrage (sell cotton to buy cotton yarn) to withdraw, and the latter may further push the price difference to about 8000 yuan later.

Xie Ziqi added.

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