Cotton Production Increased Last Year And How Will China'S Future Cotton Market Affect?

World clothing shoes and hats, reported in January 2nd, 2017-2018 is

The deepening of supply side structural reform.

Looking back on the domestic cotton market in the past year, the planting area, output and price are different from the previous year.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the output of cotton in 2017 was 5 million 486 thousand tons, an increase of 142 thousand tons over 2016, an increase of 2.7%.

Among them, the total output of Xinjiang is 4 million 82 thousand tons, accounting for 74.4% of the whole country, which is 7.1 percentage points higher than that of last year.

In this context, what will the trend of cotton market affect the future cotton market in China?

Cotton production increased last year

Data from the National Bureau of statistics show that in 2017, the cotton planting area in China was 3 million 229 thousand and 600 hectares, a decrease of 146 thousand and 600 hectares over 2016 and a decrease of 4.3%.

According to the regional perspective, the planting area of Xinjiang's largest cotton producing area increased by 157 thousand and 900 hectares compared with that in 2016, an increase of 8.7%.

Other cotton areas were affected by factors such as low planting efficiency and adjustment of planting structure. The trend of reduction was more frequent. Among them, the cotton area in the the Yellow River River Basin decreased by 3 million 227 thousand mu, decreased by 24.3%, and the cotton area in the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 1 million 455 thousand mu, down by 14.9%.

According to Huang Xiaoyi, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang's information market, overall, though the cotton planting area was less than last year in 2017, the output has kept increasing, and the cotton yield per unit area has been raised, and the farmers' enthusiasm for growing cotton has been enhanced.

In 2017, the total output of lint cotton in China is expected to exceed 5 million 500 thousand tons, a slight increase compared with 2016.

In 2016, China's cotton planting area was only 42 million 660 thousand mu, which was at a historical low. The reduction of new cotton supply caused the cotton enterprises to raise prices and rush to harvest seed cotton, and the farmers' sales of cotton increased significantly than before. Therefore, the enthusiasm for planting cotton increased significantly in 2017, and the planting area and output increased to varying degrees.

Huang Xiaoyi said that in 2017, the percentage of cotton sown area in Xinjiang increased from 64.46% in 2016 to 66.32%.

Therefore, although the average cotton yield per cotton area in other cotton areas decreased slightly in 2017, the output of cotton in Xinjiang reached 122.6 kg / mu, which was higher than the average 75.9 kg / mu in other cotton fields in the country. The increase of cotton yield per unit area and the proportion of cotton sown area in the whole country increased the cotton yield per unit area.

Market supply and demand gap gradually emerged

In 2017, the focus of the cotton market was around the national cotton store. In November, two ministries and commissions issued a notice on the arrangements for the rotation of the national cotton reserves in 2017/2018.

Huang Xiaoyi believes that the cotton storage wheel also ensures that cotton prices will no longer fluctuate.

The advantages of the national cotton store are outstanding, and the downstream textile enterprises are more enthusiastic about the purchase of national cotton stores.

The cotton market in China has experienced great ups and downs in the early years. The high cotton price during the period of storage and withdrawal is hard to reproduce, and the low cotton price has led to a significant reduction in cotton production in China, and the gap between supply and demand in the market has gradually emerged in recent years.

In 2016, the national cotton storage began to run normally, and steady entry into the market of national cotton stores could not only supplement the supply gap of the market, but also ensure that the price of cotton would no longer rise and fall. The cost of downstream textile enterprises would be reduced and the market competitiveness would be steadily increased.

The addition of national storage cotton makes

The situation of adequate supply of the market will continue. In 2017, the target price mechanism and the national cotton rotation policy were normalized. The implementation of this policy also made the pricing power of cotton continue to be determined by the market. In 2017, the cotton prices in the main cotton producing areas in China increased as a whole, the cotton purchasing price index was 15003 yuan / ton, and in 2016 it was 14274 yuan / ton.

And the domestic Zheng cotton is affected by a large increase in global cotton production, strong American cotton export, domestic cotton policy and other factors, resulting in the trend of domestic cotton price in 15000~16000 yuan / ton interval shock this year.

Cotton area or small increase this year

Huang Xiaoyi believes that, after experiencing a rebound in cotton prices in 2016 and a large number of state-owned cotton stores, the supply and demand structure of the cotton market has gradually stabilized this year, and the planting area and output of new cotton have increased slightly, and the turnover volume of normalized storage of national cotton stores has reached a new high.

Under the background of supply side reform, huge amounts of inventory have been gradually digested, and farmers' income has been guaranteed.

The effectiveness of regulation has been remarkable.

During the new cotton market in 2017, the seed cotton purchase price fluctuated less and the average price was lower than that of the same period last year. Therefore, the enthusiasm of cotton growers in 2018 has been affected.

Because of the existence of target price subsidies in Xinjiang area, the income of farmers has declined, but compared with other crops, the profit of seed cotton is relatively stable, and everyone is more optimistic about the market. Therefore, Huang Xiaoyi, an analyst with information market, thinks that there is a slight expansion of cotton planting area in the new year, with an estimated increase of around 5%.

Huang Xiaoyi said that the cotton farmers' income in the mainland cotton area declined significantly compared with that in 2016. Although the enthusiasm of cotton growers has declined, the establishment of subsequent major agricultural production protection zones will, to a certain extent, support the cotton planting in the mainland, with a limited reduction in cotton planting area. If the subsidy intensity of the protected areas is increased, the cotton planting area will increase.

Therefore, we expect that the cotton planting area in China will grow from 4800 to 50 million mu in 2018, or a slight increase over 2017.

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