[Operation Analysis] Smooth Operation Of Textile Industry In The First Half Of 2018

[operation analysis]

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Stable growth of internal and external sales

In the first half of the year, the boom of the textile industry was generally stable, and the two quarter was better than the first quarter.

China Textile union operator tracking survey results show that the first half of the industry boom index continued to expand in the interval, the two quarter of the prosperity index was 60.9, compared with the first quarter increased 3.6 points.

Figure 1: textile industry prosperity index

Source: China Textile Industry Federation

The domestic demand market grew steadily, and the growth rate of the network channel increased significantly.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, the above limit is above the national level.

The retail sales of needle textiles increased by 9.2% over the same period last year, the growth rate increased by 1.9 percentage points over the same period last year, and the retail sales of apparel products nationwide increased by 24.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 3.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

Domestic sales of textile and clothing grew better than last year. On the one hand, it is related to China's overall macroeconomic stability and rapid growth of residents' income. On the other hand, it also shows that the textile industry has achieved remarkable results in optimizing the supply structure and effectively meeting domestic demand.

Figure 2: growth of domestic consumer goods retail sales

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

The total export volume of the industry keeps growing, and the competitiveness of textiles is stable.

Customs express data show that in the first half of the year, the whole country

Total exports of clothing (excluding 94 chapters) amounted to US $127 billion 520 million, an increase of 3.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

Among them, textiles showed stable international competitiveness and export growth was good. The export volume in the first half of the year increased by 10.3%, the growth rate was 7.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The proportion of total exports increased from 42.8% in the same period last year to 45.7%. The pressure on garment exports increased and the export volume decreased by 2%, down from 3.4 percentage points in the same period last year, and the proportion decreased from 57.2% in the same period last year to 54.3%.

Fig. 3: growth of total export volume of textiles and garments

Source: China Customs

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Stable operation and steady progress

Benefiting from the good supporting role of domestic and foreign markets, the textile industry's growth rate has been gradually accelerating.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half year, above scale

The total realized main business revenue was 2 trillion and 906 billion 60 million yuan, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year. The growth rate increased by 1 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year. The total profit was 136 billion 60 million yuan, up 2.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 6.2 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.

The profit growth rate of chemical fiber and textile machinery industry is significantly higher than that of the whole industry. In the first half, the main business income and profit of chemical fiber industry increased by 16.3% and 19.3% compared with the same period last year, and the textile machinery industry increased by 16% and 19.6% respectively.

Figure 4:2018 growth of textile and sub sectors profit index in the first half of last year (regulation)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

The overall quality of the industry has been improved.

In the first half of this year, the sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.7%, slightly lower than that of the same period last year, 0.1 percentage points, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of this year, and the turnover rate of finished products was 18.4 times / year, which was 2.6% faster than that of the same period last year. The turnover rate of total assets was 1.4 times / year, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. The three fee rate was 6.9%, slightly higher than that of the same period last year, 1 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter of this year.

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Investment growth picked up slightly

The commencement of the textile industry is basically normal, and the growth rate of production is slowing down gradually.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the utilization rate of textile industry in the first half of this year was 81.1%, 0.4 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year, and the utilization rate of chemical fiber industry was 81.7%, a slight slowdown of 1.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

The industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, the growth rate slowed by 2.5 percentage points over the same period last year, 0.8 percentage points slower than the first quarter, the fastest growth in the textile industry, the 13.9% increase in the first half of the year, the more stable production in the terminal stage of the industrial chain, and 6.2%, 7.8% and 4.5% increase in the textile, industrial textiles and clothing industries, respectively.

Industry investment growth rate rebounded slightly.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the fixed assets investment in the textile industry increased by 1.3% in the first half of the year, while the growth rate slowed down by 7.8 percentage points over the same period last year. However, it ended the negative growth since the beginning of this year, and the growth rate was 4.6 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.

Among them, the efficiency of the chemical fiber industry was boosted and investment confidence was boosted. The investment in the first half of the year increased by 28.2%, up 7.9 percentage points from the same period last year, which is 26.9 percentage points higher than that of the whole industry.

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Uncertainties remain to be observed.

Looking forward to the second half of 2018, the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad has generally continued to recover steadily, and the fundamentals of steady growth both inside and outside the market have not changed. The textile industry is also expected to maintain a basically stable operation in the second half of this year.

Internationally, employment in developed economies has improved, approaching the level of full employment, boosting consumer confidence and maintaining an international market demand.

The International Monetary Fund and the world bank have recently predicted that the global economic growth rate in 2018 is 3.9% and 3.1% respectively, which are not lower than the growth level in 2017, and the external demand situation in the textile industry is generally stable.

At home, in the second half of the year, China's macroeconomic situation will remain stable. The steady employment will provide basic support for income growth and consumption expansion. Consumer confidence is at a relatively high level, which can provide a basis for judging the steady growth of domestic demand in the second half of the year; macro regulation and control policies pay more attention to expanding domestic demand, and domestic consumption of textile and clothing is expected to maintain steady growth.

In the second half of this year, the complexity of the macro environment at home and abroad has increased, and the risk factors have increased, but on the whole, it will not cause a significant impact on the textile industry.

Since the beginning of this year, Sino US trade frictions have continued to escalate, trade environment uncertainty has increased, and textile industry export pressure has also increased.

However, the current US tax increase list has not yet covered a large proportion of export products such as clothing and home textiles, and the tax increase has not yet entered the implementation stage. Therefore, it is expected that the export will not cause significant impact on the export of textile industry in the year.

The external risks such as global liquidity contraction caused by US interest rate hike still need some process to show its influence. The international market demand is slowing down in the short term, but the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the external demand environment of the textile industry remains stable.

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High quality development remains to be advanced.

On the whole, the textile industry will continue to run smoothly in the second half of the year in the environment of stable domestic demand and stable external demand.

Domestic sales will continue to grow well, and export pressure has increased. However, the growth rate is expected to be smaller than that in the first half of the year. The quality and efficiency indicators of the industry still have some room for improvement because of the base number.

In the increasingly complex external situation, it is still the core development task of the textile industry to further promote pformation and upgrading and speed up the development of high quality.

The textile industry will fully implement the spirit of the nineteen party and the central economic work conference, deepen the structural reform of supply side, speed up the process of industrial pformation and upgrading, and strive to achieve steady progress and stable quality in industrial development.

(China Textile Industry Federation's Institute of Industrial Economics)