"Golden Nine Silver Ten" Becomes "Copper Nine Iron Ten" Yarn Market Cold.

It is now in late October.

Some even joked that it was "copper nine iron ten".

。

After entering October,

The market continued to fade. Cotton yarn prices declined. As of October 18th, the domestic C32S average price was 24050 yuan / ton, down 253 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

The yarn changed from "bright, steady and dark" to "bright fall".

Recently, the market of pure cotton yarn is gradually fading, and the stock level of cotton yarn has been increasing. As shown above, cotton yarn inventory began to increase in mid September this year, 0.5-1 months earlier than before. At present, after more than 1 months of accumulation, the stock has been higher than the same period in previous years.

and

More exaggerated, nearly 30 days of inventory has reached a new high of nearly two years.

It is understood that there are still a lot of stocks in Guangdong, Foshan and other places where the stock is unsalable, so the purchase of cotton yarn is also more cautious.

At present, though

Surface quotations are relatively stable, but in actual pactions, textile enterprises are eager to ship goods, reducing inventory basically have room for negotiation.

Many textile enterprises reflect the continued reduction of orders in the late stage, and the initial orders are basically sold.

9-10 months, pure

Market is weak, pure cotton yarn prices generally fell.

However, although the price of cotton yarn has dropped to varying degrees, the decline is not as good as cotton.

The main reasons are as follows: first, the domestic market is short of cotton in short term.

According to the China Cotton Association statistics, as of the end of September, the national cotton business inventories were 1 million 666 thousand tons, and in late August, the new cotton market began to appear in 2018/19 in late August, so the cotton circulation resources were very abundant. The Sino US trade war was not only the confidence of the spinning and weaving enterprises, but also the impact on the export of high quality grey fabrics, fabrics and clothing.

The United States imposes tariffs on imported textile products, such as "a sword" hanging on the head of spinning and clothing enterprises and trading companies. It is likely to drop and hurt people at any time. Three, the cotton price fluctuates greatly, and the spinning enterprises' mentality of "buying up but not buying down" is prominent.

In addition, although the central bank has repeatedly lowered the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks, and constantly released liquidity, but for textile and clothing sunset industry, credit support continued to tighten, and still implement "first, then loan or even loan first". Therefore, "money shortage" is still an inevitable reality for spinning and weaving enterprises. Four, cotton textile enterprises have relatively limited bearing capacity and digestion capacity for 2018/19 cotton, and are facing the risk of "upside down" in the short run.

Therefore, at present, textile enterprises are reluctant to enter the market to purchase new cotton, resulting in continuous decline of cotton.

According to our calculations, there are still many profit margins for C32S spinning, but if the sales of cotton yarn continue to fade, the stock level of spinning enterprises is rising, and cotton prices continue to fall, the decline of pure cotton yarn may continue to increase.

As for the import yarn, as of 25 days, the spot price of FCY Index C32S was 23978 yuan / ton, which fell 257 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In October, the stock market of imported yarn in China remained high, the peak season was not strong, and the goods were slower, but the cost of printing yarn was relatively high.

From the point of view of India's export shipment, China's share increased from 28.85% last month to 33.74%. Bangladesh accounted for 18.96% of the total from 20.66% last month, ranking second. China and Bangladesh accounted for more than 1/2 of India's total export volume, while other countries accounted for a relatively small proportion. From the national average price, China's average price remained the lowest, and Bangladesh's average price was relatively high.

In addition, the export of Pakistan's yarn and cloth in September showed a downward trend, especially the export of cotton yarn decreased greatly, indicating that Pakistan cotton mill is facing greater pressure.

Import and export growth and export of cotton in Pakistan this year

The pattern of rapid growth has not changed, but it has already been affected. The reason may eventually be traced to the trade war and the Fed's interest rate hike.

In terms of futures, if we mentioned earlier, since the middle of September, the main price of cotton yarn futures has dropped more than 2000 yuan / ton, and the cotton yarn futures volume has also fallen again due to the sentiment of "buying up or not buying down". The National Day has remained basically below 3000 hands every day.

At the same time, "yarn with flower dance" phenomenon still maintained, but the difference is maintained at around 9000 yuan / ton.