Cost Support Weakened When Demand Weakened, PTA Market Dropped Risk.

Since the beginning of January, driven by crude oil, the cost of PTA has been rising and rising.

At present, crude oil starts to shake up and collate. If crude oil is not favorable, the contradiction between PTA price will turn to supply and demand. Just recently, the PTA device of Peng Wei Petrochemical will be restarted, and the polyester enterprises in the lower reaches still need to stock up years ago.

Short term profits of crude oil

By the end of last Thursday, international oil prices had risen for nine consecutive trading days. Oil prices fell by nearly 2% on Friday and Monday, but this decline ended on Tuesday. WTI and Brent crude oil rose by 2% and broke through key figures. Taking into account the slowdown in the OPEC+ production process, Saudi Arabia said the possibility of cutting crude oil output to below 10 million 200 thousand barrels per day is unlikely. The pressure on crude demand slowed down. The supply and demand situation of crude oil is not optimistic, and crude oil rebound is difficult to sustain.

Device load lifting

In terms of installations, Yisheng Dalian 2 million 250 thousand ton plant is expected to restart in January 20th, and 1 million 200 thousand tons of facilities in three lane have been restarted. The 1 million 400 thousand tons of Hua Bin's equipment is expected to be under 10 days for 1 months.

PTA processing fees rose to nearly 700 yuan / ton due to the sharp rise in the price of PX in the past two days. Tenglong aromatics succeeded in reproducing PX qualified products. The initial 800 thousand tons of equipment were first opened, and the remaining 800 thousand tons were determined according to the circumstances. It is estimated that the load of the 4 million 500 thousand tons of PTA plant will be raised to 8 in January under the premise of the smooth restart of PX.

Downstream load reduction

In February, the polyester factories announced plans for reducing production. On the one hand, polyester profits were gradually pressurized with the production capacity being put into operation. Polyester appeared the overhaul of the Spring Festival and the peak period of periodical maintenance on other time nodes.

On the other hand, the terminal orders began to go downhill, and the finished product inventory of the lower reaches again after the beginning of the month, and once again entered the storage cycle, which made the polyester factory have to implement its production plan ahead of schedule. From the point of view of overhaul and reduction plan, the polyester plant starts to decline to 75%-76% in January, and the consumption of PTA will drop sharply.

In January, the opening rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was down, weaving plan was suspended for 25 months on January 15th -1. At present, the inventory of grey fabric is high, raw material inventory is low, and the attitude towards raw material preparation is cautious. Polyester operating rate has declined, and polyester production and marketing performance has been flat this week, resulting in accumulation of polyester factory stock.

Outlook and operational suggestions

On the whole, the supply and demand situation of crude oil is not optimistic, and crude oil rebound is difficult to sustain.

In January, the PTA device was not overhauled, and the supply increased risk. Demand, polyester load has dropped to 82.08%, after the middle of this month, polyester continues to perform maintenance, the load will be further reduced. PTA supply and demand pressure is increasing, the rebound space is limited, and the risk of coming down is bigger.