The New Year'S Rally Is Close To 20% PTA.

In 2019, PTA rebounded strongly. The price of the main 1095 contract was rushed to 6572 yuan / ton from the low point 5560 yuan / ton, and the rebound rate reached 18.2%.

Overexpectation overhaul triggered rapid rise

From the valuation point of view, this rise is closely related to the extension of several sets of maintenance time and the delaying of polyester.

The three sets of PTA maintenance plan changed: the PTA plant with annual output of 900 thousand tons was postponed until January 25th, and the maintenance of the PTA plant with 1 million 400 thousand tons of annual output of Hua Bin Petrochemical Company lasted for a month. The planned maintenance period was 7 to 10 days. The PTA plant with an annual output of 4 million 500 thousand tons was delayed to 8 after the Spring Festival.

Taking into account the changes in the three sets of equipment, it is estimated that the PTA supply loss will increase by 120 thousand tons in January, that is, the inventory of PTA in January is still more difficult to accumulate.

Last week, the total inventory of five PTA was estimated at 970 thousand tons, including 480 thousand tons of polyester plant and 330 thousand tons of PTA plant, leaving only 160 thousand tons of actual circulating stock.

This inventory is relatively low in the same period in previous years.

Polyester fundamentals are better than expected.

We see that the May contract usually rises before the Spring Festival, and then turns down again after the Spring Festival.

In February, the end of the holiday, some polyester repair, and the PTA industry in the Spring Festival did not focus on overhaul, so PTA probability will appear a storehouse process, different is more tired and less.

This year's market is still uncertain.

Whether there is a lot of PTA storage during the Spring Festival, there are still big differences in the market.

We believe that there is a strong seasonal character in the downstream weaving process of polyester industry chain, so the current price or more or less will take into account this factor. Maybe only the super expected storehouse will impact the current price.

In addition, from the perspective of polyester factories, the current comprehensive profit of polyester processing can reach 380 - 400 yuan / ton, and polyester stocks keep below 15 days, and the polyester end surface is obviously better than expected.

If this situation can be sustained, the start-up rate of the polyester plant in February is expected to reach the level of the same period last year, or even better than last year.

Follow up operation is the main way.

The crude oil market is concerned about the high rate of OPEC implementation, and the risk sentiment is getting warmer.

However, from the data point of view, although the number of drilling platforms has declined in the United States, shale oil output has risen a little, and the major authorities have made pessimistic expectations for the economic growth in 2019.

Judging from the price results of market pactions, although the price of PX products in recent months showed a certain degree of callback with the fall of crude oil, the price of PX products from 2 to April is still relatively high.

Judging from the actual situation, despite the expectation of the PX plant (Hengli petrochemical) put into operation, the real stable production time may be in the three quarter of 2019.

On the basis of the monthly difference structure of PTA, the forward contracts will inevitably be suppressed by the expected production. In recent months, the contracts will have more imagination. Therefore, we recommend that in the medium term, we should focus on the operation of PTA.