Market Analysis: Keep Rational And Seize Opportunities. Truth Is A Win In Stability.

"Based on the effectiveness of supply side structural reforms over the past few years, coupled with the overall upward trend of crude oil prices, the price of the whole petroleum based industrial chain has been rising. In the past two years, the overall quality of the chemical fiber industry has been better."

At the beginning of the new year, Duan Xiaoping, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation and President of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, told reporters about the overall operation of the industry in the past year.

Duan Xiaoping, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation and President of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association

When it comes to the competition situation that the industry may face in the new year and the attitude that enterprises should hold, Xiaoping further states: "in 2019, the international political and economic situation is still complex and changeable. There are still many uncertainties in Sino US trade friction. The global consensus on strict and sustainable development of environmental protection demands many new requirements for the development of manufacturing industry, including the textile and chemical fiber industry.

Influenced by multiple factors, no one can predict what kind of challenges and problems will happen in 2019. However, in any case, the trend of steady development of the chemical fiber industry will not change fundamentally. It is very important for enterprises to maintain a rational attitude at all times.

If enterprises regard it as a "magic spell" on the top, it will be very difficult for them to face difficulties and challenges. But if we regard it as an opportunity for promotion and make good use of it, we will be better able to win in competition and gain greater market share.

Deeply understand the connotation of high quality development

Relevant data show that in 2018 1~10 months, China's chemical fiber industry completed 41 million 310 thousand tons of production, an increase of 8.32% over the same period last year. The main business income was 661 billion yuan, an increase of 14.18% over the same period last year. The total profit realized was 31 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 18.9% over the same period last year. The main business profit margin was 4.78%, up 0.19 percentage points over the same period last year.

"In the past year, the chemical fiber industry has been running smoothly."

Xiaoping said.

On this basis, referring to the situation that the industry may face in the new year, he pointed out that in 2019, the world economy will still be on the recovery track, but the risk factors facing the industry can not be ignored.

For example, the negative impact of risk factors on global economic growth, such as the increase in interest rate of the US dollar, liquidity contraction and aggravation of US trade protectionism, will gradually appear. Global economic growth and China's economic growth are expected to decline.

Under the influence of external environment changes, the pressure of China's macro-economic operation will increase.

Under this background, the industry needs to push forward the high quality development with more urgent needs. The industry must focus on improving production efficiency, innovation ability and risk resisting ability, so as to maintain a steady development trend.

In promoting the development of high quality, Xiaoping stressed that enterprises must combine economic growth and market capacity for comprehensive consideration.

"In the 90s of last century, it would take more than ten thousand yuan to buy a brick like cell phone. Now the phone styles are various, and the price is much cheaper than" big brother ".

Did the technology of "big cell phone" at that time be higher than the technology content of mobile phone?

Obviously not.

Therefore, the price level is not the only criterion to measure the level of product technology.

Good things will still sell cabbage prices if they do more.

Xiaoping said, "the industry still has concerns in this respect. What is" new normal "?

What is high quality development?

If some enterprises do not understand this deeply and deeply, they will easily fall into a cyclical change again.

Because in this context, enterprises tend to focus more on the market price, raw material procurement and inventory control. From the perspective of long-term development of enterprises, it is far from enough to concentrate on these levels.

Therefore, relatively stable market is very important. Producers' self-discipline is also very important. Under the new macro and industrial environment, enterprises should focus their efforts on R & D, put them on the value-added of products, put them in green development and intelligent manufacturing, and avoid the result of structural reforms on the supply side.

Green development is both a challenge and an opportunity.

Green hills and green hills are Jinshan Yinshan, and green development has become the theme of the times.

In recent years, China Chemical Fiber Association has been advocating green development concept in the industry.

On the one hand, we should take the relevant work of green fiber label as the starting point, and guide more enterprises to participate in the green development action.

On the other hand, we should vigorously promote the related technologies of energy saving and emission reduction in the industry.

Turning to the relevant work of green fiber logo, Xiaoping explained: "green fibers include bio based chemical fibers, recycled chemical fibers and raw liquor coloring chemical fibers. The ultimate emphasis is to actively guide enterprises to minimize harm to the environment in the production process, and some products can even be degraded in natural environment."

In promoting energy saving and emission reduction technology, we should focus on two things. First, we must grasp the localization, scale production and application of antimony free catalysts. This is also a key project of the newly established advanced functional fiber innovation center, in order to reduce or eliminate the production and emissions of waste and dirt from the source.

Xiaoping told reporters: "at present, the production of polyester fiber accounts for about 80% of the total fiber output, and the output of chemical fiber accounts for about 84% of the total fiber, which means that more than 60% of the textile raw materials are related to the catalyst.

Compared with China, the volume and scale of manufacturing industry in developed countries are relatively small. They also use antimony based catalysts, which can dilute the wastewater generated in the later production process, and the impact on the environment can be ignored.

It's just like in the same room, the difference between one person smoking and ten people smoking is different.

The fundamental problem is environmental capacity. "

Second, promote the related work of "green development alliance of regenerated cellulose fiber industry" to promote sustainable development of the industry.

Regenerated cellulose fiber is the second largest variety of chemical fiber products. Its usage is close to cotton and its properties are closest to cotton.

But in the past, traditional technology has been used to produce, and the discharge of "three wastes" has had a certain impact on the environment.

To solve these problems, we need to walk on "two legs". First, we should use the best energy saving and emission reduction technologies and the "three wastes" technology to reduce the emission level. Two, we should promote the use of new technologies and processes, such as solvent based cellulose fiber production processes.

Xiaoping believes that although green development has brought challenges to the enterprise, its positive significance is also obvious.

"Such as energy saving and environmental protection has brought about differential competition, including the chemical fiber industry competing for the development of environment-friendly fibers, printing and dyeing industry to promote water, water less printing and dyeing and digital printing.

In this process, the traditional industry has brought opportunities to many new entrants because of the use of high technology and green technology, thus disrupting the original competitive pattern of the industry. The well done enterprises win from it, and to a certain extent, speed up the technological progress of the industry.

He added.

Enhance competitiveness with intelligent manufacturing as the starting point

In 2018, with the gradual escalation of Sino US trade friction, almost all chemical fiber products were involved. Although the direct impact on the chemical fiber industry is limited, it can not be ignored.

In December 1, 2018, China and the United States have reached a consensus that the two sides should stop trade restrictions such as tariff escalation.

The US side agreed to temporarily raise the levy duty of $200 billion from 10% to 25% in January 1, 2019, and set up a 90 day negotiation period.

In this regard, Xiaoping believes that Sino US trade relations may still have many variables, enterprises should seize the opportunity to enhance themselves in many ways.

If we strengthen economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN, EU and central and South American countries, especially the countries along the belt and road, reduce their dependence on the US market, and actively seek new alternative markets and enhance their ability to resist risks.

At the same time, powerful enterprises can consider overseas layout.

Of course, the most important thing is to increase the intensity of independent innovation and enhance the core competitiveness of products, so that products can not be replaced.

With the increasing labor costs and energy costs in China, chemical fiber enterprises should accelerate the development of intelligent manufacturing.

At present, with Hengli, Sheng Hong, Heng Yi, Rong Sheng, Tong Kun, Xin Feng Ming and other large groups as representatives, through the "machine substitution", from mechanization to automation, some links in production are changed from manpower to mechanical or automatic lines, which saves a lot of manpower, effectively reduces costs and improves the overall competitiveness of enterprises.

Of course, at the end of Xiaoping's view, the advantages of intelligent manufacturing are not only reflected in the reduction of costs, but also include the following aspects: first, the emancipation of workers from the high intensity working environment and the emergence of many new jobs, such as express delivery and logistics, etc.; two, the replacement of machines will generate a large amount of data, and then draw a comparison of the parameters of equipment, raw materials and processes. In the future, these data will become available resources to provide services for the collaborative development of the whole value chain of manufacturing enterprises; three, the standardization of intelligent manufacturing will bring the improvement of product quality, and will provide an important support for the high quality development of the industry.

He is convinced that in the future, intelligent manufacturing will bring new changes to the industry, and further consolidate and enhance the international competitiveness of China's traditional manufacturing industry.