The PTA Market Maintained The Current Price Range Before The Filament Production Rate Improved.

After the spring year, PTA inventory accumulated, polyester factory stocked before the festival, purchasing power decreased, resulting in spot sales weakness.

In the lower polyester production and marketing situation is not optimistic, PTA valuation quickly dropped, and now entered the consolidation stage.

Current price synchronous callback

PTA every year after the Spring Festival, there will be a process of storehouse, and this year is no exception.

Before the Spring Festival, the polyester factories were stocked up enough. According to CCF statistics, the stock of polyester factories reached 7 days, compared with the 3-4 days of last Spring Festival.

According to statistics, after the Spring Festival, the total inventory of PTA is about 1 million 290 thousand tons, of which 510 thousand tons of polyester plant and 600 thousand tons of PTA plant. After the Spring Festival in 2018, the total inventory of PTA was 700 thousand tons, of which 350 thousand tons of polyester plant and 247 thousand tons of PTA plant.

At the same time, PTA spot began to rise slowly, PTA basis from 200 yuan / ton of normal level gradually reduced to flat water nearby.

In particular, the supply side of Xiang Lu Petrochemical 4 million 500 thousand tons of equipment will gradually start the load increased from the original 50% to 8, the supply of PTA in February as part of the incremental.

Looking back at demand side, polyester production and marketing remained light after the holiday, which has been around 2, and the recovery rate is slightly slower than expected.

This also means that the price of PTA futures is somewhat overestimated.

So we can see that although the crude oil in the same period continues to record high, PTA is running counter to its current price.

1905 of the contracts fell from a high point of 6738 yuan / ton to a low level of 6274 yuan / ton, or 464 yuan / ton.

The trend is determined by the terminal.

Whether crude oil or PX, recent prices are showing strong upward trend.

OPEC supports production cuts and boosted confidence in the oil market.

The market expects Hengli Petrochemical 4 million ton PX plant to be released in early May, and the processing profit of PX will remain high.

At the same time, from the global PX maintenance plan we have counted, there will be a lot of device overhaul in the 2 quarter of 2019, the most of which is in April, and more than 8 million 500 thousand tons of PX devices are expected to be overhauled.

In terms of PTA supply, Sichuan Shengda 1 million 200 thousand ton plant plan was put into operation in March, and Xiang Lu Petrochemical increased its load to 80%.

But we should also see that in the near future, when the PTA processing fee was reduced to 500 yuan / ton, some large PTA suppliers began to announce the maintenance plan, for example, the Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA device was delayed to March for overhaul and the repair time was 15 days; the Ningbo Yisheng four phase 2 million 200 thousand ton was running down because of the device; the Zhuhai BP120 million ton plan was scheduled to stop for 15 days in April; the 2 million 200 thousand ton plan of the Jiaxing petrochemical company stopped in March and April; and the HP Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton plant plans to have a 10 day maintenance in March.

If these maintenance plans are implemented on schedule, the PTA3 month inventory will still be in the stage of elimination.

conclusion

At present, the contradiction between supply and demand is not outstanding. The cost side and the supply side provide support for the PTA price. But the specific height of the plant depends on the profit and downstream acceptance of polyester plant.

After the first month of fifteen, the downstream weaving factories resumed work one after another.

Polyester products have the lowest profit margins, and their cash flow is 150 yuan / ton.

If raw materials are further rising, polyester filament products do not have room for good price increase, so the probability of polyester factory operation will decline.

Before the filament production and sales rate is better, it is expected that the market will maintain the current valuation level, and the short-term price space will hardly break through the price range after the Spring Festival, and the 1905 contract will run 6250-6750 yuan / ton.