Zheng Cotton Market Easy To Fall, Difficult To Rise, The Near Future Rate Keeps The Interval Fluctuation Trend.

Recently, the cotton market is quite dramatic. First, with the help of the "east wind" of Sino US trade negotiations, the slow ox pattern was launched. The cotton price gradually lifted from the bottom 14650 yuan / ton, fully deducting the "two wave" pattern, and continued to sharply increase the price of the storehouse. The outside world indicated that when the hope was suddenly stopped, with the help of other "Dongfeng" rapid adjustment, the plot told us that the fall was easy to rise.

I always believe in the saying: "the market will not rise for no reason, nor will it fall for no reason."

When the market comes up, there will always be a logic of analysis and vice versa.

Every outbreak of Zheng's cotton market is in the process of borrowing strength. The long trend of decline in 2018 is the matter of Sino US trade relations.

Originally wanted to draw on the logic of cotton production reduction, did not want to increase in the premise of production, not to decline, but the result eventually led to a larger decline than the increase. Looking back at the 2018 annual trend of K-line, it is found that short selling is more lucrative than doing more.

If nothing happens, everything is in the process of planning and outside the plan.

Entering the 2019, Zheng cotton also nearly achieved breakthroughs two times. Unfortunately, under the pressure of warehouse receipts, it eventually failed.

As an industry expert has said, cotton prices in the future should be concerned with four aspects: Cotton trend, policy and weather.

At present, the trend of outer cotton is also full of uncertainties. According to the preliminary forecast of the US Department of agriculture's Outlook Forum, the global cotton production in 2019/20 is larger than that in demand. The output of US cotton is close to 4 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of nearly 900 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 22.3%.

Such a large increase in cotton prices will create great pressure.

Looking at the domestic market, as of the end of January, cotton business inventories reached 4 million 800 thousand tons. Yesterday, the total volume of warehouse receipts has reached 19551, which is equivalent to 780 thousand tons of cotton. Such a large inventory and warehouse receipt pressure can only be exchanged for space in time, waiting for resources to digest, so as to leave room for the rise of the market, otherwise, how can funds do something thankless?

Of course, there is a reserve cotton policy. After all, the change of policy will have a great impact on cotton prices.

It is not necessary to say that the weather directly determines the output and quality of cotton, and plays a decisive role in the supply side. This is also the reason why the hype is effective every year.

The above four easterly winds are all likely to be supported by future funds. Anyhow, the recent cotton rate around Zheng cotton is still keeping the trend of interval fluctuation, but the interval is somewhat larger than that of the previous period.