Cotton Spot Is About To Start March Cotton Price Or Usher In A Change

Winter is over, spring is coming, everything is reviving.

The central text No. 1 has also been issued. It is emphasized that the construction of Xinjiang's high quality cotton production base will be resumed and the crop production capacity of cotton and other crops will be consolidated. The idea of improving quality and efficiency will continue to lay the foundation for the good development of the cotton industry in the later stage.

However, the cotton market has not been as warm as it has been in the ideal. The Sino US trade consultation has not yet had substantial results. The social inventory is high, and the downstream textile enterprises are cautious. The demand has not improved significantly. They are all bad for the current market. What changes have taken place in the recent cotton market?

Last Friday, Zheng cotton futures main force CF1905 broke through the key point of 15500 yuan / ton, hitting 15660 yuan / tonne high point, which brought a hint of warmth to the depressed cotton market.

It is estimated that the average processing cost of Xinjiang machine picked cotton in the new year is 15400-15500 yuan / ton. During the rising process of Zhengzhou cotton, the manufacturers in Northern Xinjiang were able to guarantee the overall inventory pressure, and the overall inventory pressure was released.

Compared with before the Spring Festival, the spot price of machine picked cotton rose 100-200 yuan / ton, while the South Xinjiang water resource ginning factory had a firm demand, while the sales volume within the territory did not increase significantly, but the bullish mentality of enterprises increased.

It is understood that some manufacturers believe that the current demand for textile enterprises in the downstream is small, mainly because there is still surplus in the pre holiday subsidy. Moreover, Sino US trade negotiations are slow progress and slow digestion speed is normal, but the demand for rigid replenishment will increase in the next month.

In addition, according to the latest news, the agreement between China and the United States reached a high probability in March. The cotton price in the early stage has been in the processing cost line, and it has certain support for the current market, so it has enough confidence in the latter market.

On the other hand, state reserve stocks are low.

At present, the announcement of the national container shipping has not yet been released, and it has become a speculation topic for many investors.

According to the feedback from major ports in China, the number of imported cotton and the quantity of outbound goods have increased significantly in recent years.

Due to the sharp drop in the external market during the Spring Festival, the Caunt Luke index dropped, compared with domestic cotton, the price of imported cotton increased.

In addition, the 1% tariff import cotton quotas issued, the slide tax quota extended to the end of February, all played a catalytic role in the purchase and sale of imported cotton.

The sales volume of imported cotton of some small varieties has also increased significantly, whether in cotton, Brazil cotton or West African cotton and Ukrainian cotton.

At the beginning of this week, some importing cotton traders increased their quotations by 100-200 yuan / ton.

At present, Australia cotton spot offer 16600 yuan / ton, Brazil cotton spot price 15600 yuan / ton.

Looking at the current market, from the perspective of overall supply and demand, the current social inventory is still at a high level, demand remains relatively stable, and the overall contradiction between supply and demand depends on the issuance of import quotas.

From the perspective of the operator's mentality, the industry is looking forward to a stronger mentality. But whether it can be realized, we should continue to focus on the future trend and the macroeconomic trend.

If Zheng cotton breaks through again, the probability of spot rise will increase significantly.

As a result, cotton prices are changing in March.