Can The Silence Of Cotton Market Break? Zheng Cotton Shock Intensified, The Performance Of The Spot Is Quite Different!

Since late February, Zheng cotton futures main force CF1905 contract has continued to oscillate in the range of 15200-15400 yuan / ton. On the one hand, there is a lack of strong support from the fundamentals. On the other hand, as the delivery period approaches, investors turn their attention to CF1909 contracts. In March 4th, the 1905 futures contract of ICE futures fell by nearly 1%, while the second day jumped nearly 2%, and the internal and external market fluctuated sharply, making the domestic market sentiment agitated. In March 11th, the main contract CF905 of Zheng cotton futures closed at 15145 yuan / ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. However, recent cotton spot market performance is different.

First of all, the number of recent enquiries in Xinjiang has been increasing steadily, and the price of pre harvest cotton has increased. According to the survey, with the increase in the cost of cotton warehousing costs and the increase in interest rates over time, and the increase of hidden costs in cotton ginning mills, cotton merchants are very firm and have a strong sense of resistance to low prices. In addition, with the arrival of spring, some cotton mill's new rotation library is opened, and merchants' expectations for the market are enhanced. At present, the mainstream price of Xinjiang's "double 28" cotton picking gross weight is 15600-15700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of "double 28" picking cotton and wool weight is 15800-15900 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers refuse to make an inquiry of 50 yuan / ton above the counter-offer price. Of course, this is also partly related to the acquisition of high quality registered cotton warehouse receipts by some domestic traders. In order to alleviate the pressure of capital, the cotton ginning factory will pledge or resell the high-quality lint, resulting in the remaining surplus of "double 29" or more. Therefore, the ginning plants are selling at a reasonable price.

Secondly, the purchase of seed cotton is difficult for the ginning enterprises in the mainland market, and the number of lint processing is difficult to maintain. In the dilemma of acquisition and processing, cotton traders expect to raise cotton prices and obtain limited resources for high profits. According to statistics, at present, Wangjiang County in Anhui province Dachang seed cotton daily purchase amount is 6-8 Jin Jin, small factory seed cotton daily purchase amount in 3-5 Jin, reaching 2-3 times the amount of pre acquisition. The mainstream purchase price of seed cotton is 3.40-3.46 yuan / Jin, the highest price is 3.48 yuan / Jin, up 0.05 yuan / Jin compared with last week. The main reason for the rise in seed cotton prices in recent days is: first, the sales price of lint cotton increased by 150-250 yuan / ton compared with a year ago, and it showed a slow rising trend. At present, the 3128 grade small package cotton net reclaimed the goods price to reach 15300 yuan / ton; two, the local "one tree" seed cotton was gradually bottoming out, and the ginning plants used to raise the seed cotton purchase price to receive more high-quality seed cotton resources.

On the other hand, the cost performance of imported cotton increased, prompting some cotton mills to shift the purchase of raw cotton to imported cotton, especially in Shandong and Hebei. It is estimated that the purchase of imported cotton with quotas can save nearly 1000 yuan more than the direct purchase of RMB per spot. Therefore, the recent cotton market trading outside the port presents a hot situation. Port cotton traders are optimistic. According to feedback, there are more customers coming to Hong Kong Daily enquiries in the near future. If there is a certain rebound in the external market, the spot market will rapidly increase.

"Golden three silver four" traditional peak season is coming, whether cotton city is getting warmer on schedule, we need to continue to pay attention to the overall supply and demand changes of the market. At present, the upstream mentality is strong, and the downstream will continue to be cautious. The two sessions of the two countries, Sino US trade negotiations or the signing of the "agreement", or will break the long silence of the cotton market.