Signed Import 4/5/6 Month Shipping Date India Cotton Needs Caution

3 in the early part of the month, some cotton traders and middlemen in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Guangzhou and other places responded. In 3 and April, the number of India cotton arrived and shipped in the 2018/19 year was relatively large. Because the weather and cotton varieties of Gujarat in the main cotton producing area of the S-6 were not very strong this year, not only the quality and grade of S-6 declined significantly, but the total output decreased by at least 30%, so J34, V797, MECH1 and MCU5 accounted for the increase in the previous year.

It is understood that some traders in Qingdao estimate that at the end of March, India cotton or more than 40 thousand tons will arrive in the port. There will still be 3-4 tons of delivery delivered in the middle and April. When the total amount of bonded cotton in Qingdao port is expected to break another 300 thousand tons, the proportion of India cotton will be 30%-40%.

A trader in Huangdao said that in addition to a large number of large import enterprises with quotas, a large part of India cotton was contracted directly to the domestic textile mills, taking into account that the price quoted by India S-6 has been flat with that of SM 1-1/8 Brazil, higher than that of EMOT/MOT SM, 0.7-1.0 cents / pound, and the lack of import quotas can not clear customs. Therefore, small and medium-sized traders are very cautious about "moving bricks" (from the hands of foreign and large import enterprises).

India's unofficial statistics show that as of March 18th, India has signed 238 thousand tons of cotton for China's exports this year, mainly S-6, J34 and MCU5. But with the S-6 1-5/32 India domestic quotation station, 80 cents / pound (CIF offer broke through 84 cents / pound), including China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other buyers, inquiry and signing enthusiasm continued to decline.

People in the industry suggest that the import of India cotton in the 4/5/6 month period should be cautious:

First, the Sino US trade consultation continues to release positive signals. Once the agreement is "landed", China will sign a large number of contracts to import 2018/19 cotton (or take some goods from some international cotton traders) to narrow the trade deficit between China and the United States. The cost performance of EMOT/MOT and C/A is obviously higher than that of India cotton.

Secondly, the quality, spinnability and impurity of flowers in India are worrying.

The India Cotton Association predicts that India's cotton production will be 32 million 800 thousand bales this year, far lower than last year's 37 million pack. But as of the end of 3, CCI has acquired 1 million 160 thousand bales of new cotton, nearly four times the same period last year, indicating that India's cotton processing and sales are not slow.

Judging from the market feedback, this year India cotton strength, horse value, short staple rate, foreign fiber content and other indicators deviation, later flowers are more difficult to put on the desktop.

Third, in 2019, the expected increase in the sliding tariff tariff on cotton import quotas is gradually weakening.

If the state turns into reserves, the supply of domestic cotton resources will increase significantly, and there will be little hope for the additional issuance of other quotas. While spinning enterprises and traders are in line with "good steel on the knife edge", the 1% import quota is mainly signed by high quality resources such as cotton, Brazil cotton and American cotton, and India cotton can only "stand aside".