Supply And Demand Return To Warmer March PMI Returns To The Ups And Downs Line

In March 31st, the National Bureau of statistics issued the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in March (50.5%), rising by 1.3 percentage points, returning to the critical point.

"In March, the PMI index returned to the ups and downs line, mainly due to the seasonal factors superimposed on the policy effect."

Qi Zongchao, a macro researcher at Xiangcai Securities Research Institute, said yesterday in an interview with reporters that since the PMI index reflects the trend of the ring ratio, there will be some disturbance to the index at the beginning of the Spring Festival.

Overall, with the gradual landing of tax reduction and reduction policy, the PMI production index is expected to continue to improve. The gradual pmission of broad credit policy will also support the subsequent PMI trend.

"This is PMI's rebound after three months in a row, but it's 1.3 percentage points higher than last month."

Ge Shoujing, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Institute, said in an interview yesterday that after the Spring Festival, the manufacturing industry gradually returned to normal production, and the production index and the new order index rose to a high level of 6 months. This shows that with the support of the state's policy of reducing taxes and lowering taxes for the development of the real economy, the supply and demand sides are getting warmer.

Wen Tao, an analyst with China Logistics Information Center, said that the recovery of manufacturing PMI in March was mainly due to the market returning to normal after the Spring Festival, the expansion of market demand and supply, the rise of market prices, the strong willingness of enterprises to purchase, and the increase of production and business activities of small and medium-sized enterprises.

It is expected that the possibility of a larger economic downturn will be smaller in the first quarter, and the growth rate will be maintained at the fourth quarter of last year.

In the past ten years, basically, the PMI index in March has risen to varying degrees compared with February.

Qi Zongchao believes that, however, this year's PMI rebound in March can not be fully explained by seasonal factors, reflecting the effect of the central government's support for SMEs in the past few months.

Data show that, from the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises in March was 51.1%, lower than last month's 0.4 percentage points, higher than the critical point; the PMI of small and medium enterprises was 49.9% and 49.3%, respectively, up 3 percentage points and 4 percentage points respectively.

In this regard, Wen Tao said that by the early stage of the importance of the private economy and the support for small and micro enterprises, the production and operation activities of SMEs increased significantly.

With the further implementation of the policy of precise and effective support for the real economy and loans for small and micro businesses, SMEs are expected to usher in better opportunities for development.

Qi Zongchao analysis said that in the subdivision index, the new order index continued to pick up, and the production index rebounded sharply, which reflected not only the recovery after the festival, but also the manufacturers' willingness to raise their demand due to warmer demand.

Ge Shoujing said that with the supply and demand at both ends warming, enterprises increased procurement efforts, the purchase volume index in March rose to an expansion interval of 51.2%.

Ge Shoujing also said that the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing industry were 52%, 51.2% and 51.4%, respectively, which were significantly higher than that of the manufacturing industry. This indicates that the new kinetic energy is growing rapidly and the consumer goods industry is running steadily.