Slicing Of Caprolactam And PA6 In The First Quarter Of 2019: Market Review And Forecast

Price chart of caprolactam and PA6 chips in the first quarter of 2019

Source: lung Chung

Two thousand and nineteen

Unit: Yuan

Source: lung Chung

Caprolactam:

In the first quarter of 2019, the market trend of caprolactam was good, and the price center of gravity rose gradually.

At the beginning of the year, the market price was delivered at 12400-12500 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 13900-14100 yuan / ton in March 30th, up 1550 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year.

In January, the upstream crude oil and benzene market trend was strong, caprolactam supported by cost, the price rose.

However, the supply and demand of caprolactam in the market is basically normal. Although the slicing sales are better, the supply of caprolactam has increased in the same period due to the commissioning of Jinjiang's scientific and technological installations, and the restart of the orchid and Shen Yuan maintenance devices.

Sinopec's caprolactam settlement price in January was 12800 yuan / ton (liquid, superior products, three month acceptance). At the end of the month, caprolactam liquid spot price was accepted at 12800 yuan / ton acceptance.

After the Spring Festival, the caprolactam market rose sharply.

After the festival, the supply of caprolactam was reduced in Baling Petrochemical Company and baling Hengyi part of the plant, while the downstream polymerization plant had more orders before the Spring Festival, the production enthusiasm was higher before and after the Spring Festival, the demand for caprolactam was optimistic, and the market of the upstream cyclohexanone increased rapidly, which drove the market price of caprolactam to rise significantly.

Sinopec's caprolactam settlement price was 13700 yuan / ton in February, and the spot price at the end of the month was accepted at 13900-14000 yuan / ton.

In March, the caprolactam market was basically in a stalemate. Although the caprolactam factory partially stopped and overhauled, the PA6 slicing market in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River weakened in March, accumulating stocks in the polymerization plant, and declining production enthusiasm. The caprolactam market continued to rise and was blocked.

At the end of the month, Jiangsu Haili 200 thousand tons of caprolactam plant shutdown, Nanjing east 200 thousand ton plant shutdown inspection, spot supply again tight, caprolactam factory in tight support, prices continue to push up.

Sinopec March caprolactam settlement price in 14300 yuan / ton, to April 4th spot closing at 14300 yuan / ton acceptance.

Sinopec April caprolactam listing price is 14700 yuan / ton.

Forecast for future market:

In terms of cost, the market of pure benzene and cyclohexanone dropped sharply in the early stage. Although the price has risen slightly in recent years, the price of pure benzene and cyclohexanone is relatively low, and caprolactam has a considerable profit.

In terms of supply and demand, there is still a maintenance plan in the late April, and the restart time of Nanjing Dongfang maintenance device is delayed. The overall supply side of caprolactam market will remain in a tight situation.

However, at present, the price of caprolactam is high, the cost pressure of downstream polymerization plant is increasing, shipping difficulties are difficult, and the load of polymerization plant is dropping, which will restrict the market of caprolactam.

Long Zhong information predicts that the caprolactam market supply preference in April, but the downstream slicing market will slow down or slow the increase of caprolactam. Later, if the manufacturer fails to stop on schedule, the caprolactam market is still slightly better.

PA6 slice:

In the first quarter of 2019, the conventional spinning and slicing of PA6 was in a stalemate.

The market price at the beginning of the year was 14400 yuan / ton, and the closing price in March 30th was 14700-15000 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year.

Before the Spring Festival, the conventional spinning and slicing market of PA6 went through a sharp decline in the fourth quarter of 2018. By the end of the year, the downstream manufacturers were basically short positions.

With the slicing price falling to a low level, the profit margins of the downstream industries increased, and there was much demand for stocking downstream before the Spring Festival. In January, the volume of PA6 regular spinning slicing was obvious.

Low end prices are more attractive to downstream manufacturers. The profits of the polymerization factories are better during the same period, and the trading atmosphere is positive.

By the end of January, the price of conventional slicing of PA6 was raised at 14500-15000 yuan / ton.

After the return of the festival, due to the large number of orders and less factory inventory, the market in the polymerization plant increased slightly after the holidays, and the price of conventional spinning chips rose to 14900-15000 yuan / ton.

However, as the downstream has been stocked up many years ago, the purchase of new units is relatively small, and the slicing market is difficult to push up.

By March, with the gradual increase of new production capacity in the polymerization plant, and the slow recovery of downstream terminal demand, the digestion of the social stock in the field was not optimistic. The contradiction between supply and demand in the PA6 chip market was gradually emerging. The polymerization plant was in a dual pressure situation of cost and inventory, and the slicing market was stalemate.

By April 4th, the PA6 conventional spun sliced factory was concentrated at 14800-15200 yuan / ton, and the market price was raised at 14900-15300 yuan / ton.

Forecast for future market:

The market for raw caprolactam is strong in recent years, and there is still a device maintenance plan in the late stage. The slice cost surface is still relatively strong in the late stage, and the cost side will be the main boost for the slicing market.

The supply and demand side is relatively weak. At present, the aggregate capacity is more, the slice market supply exceeds demand, and the competition in the homogenization market is intense. Under the condition of no obvious improvement in demand, the slicing market is difficult to store.

On the whole, the PA6 chip market is cautiously optimistic in the latter stage, and it is expected that prices will still fluctuate around the cost.