A Shares Three Birds: The Taiping Bird, The Bird, The Joy Bird, How To Fly Out Of Different Destinies

The naming of Chinese clothing enterprises has a natural obsession with the word "bird".

Forest birds, free birds, West Lake birds, newspaper birds, birds and new wine... There are birds in the name, which seems to be the base of the clothing enterprises to fly. One of the most famous is the three birds who flew into the A-share market: A, the bird of peace, the bird of peace.

2001 is the starting point for the rapid development of China's brand apparel, and the first round of brand clothing opens. Among them, there are birds of peace, birds and birds.

Two years later, China's brand apparel changed from accelerated development to rapid development. After entering WTO, the competition of garment industry is intensified, and the per capita disposable income of the people is raised.

Heaven, earth, and harmony. Listing is a similar starting point for three birds to enter the capital market.

But from 2014 onwards, the development of the brand clothing industry began to slow down. In this period, industry profits were redistributed at the end of brand and channel. How to adapt to the new environment and become a problem of three birds. This also makes three birds of A shares fly out of different destinies.

Sadness and anxiety are evident in the recent announcement of three birds.

One grief

The news birds have yet to get out of the "good news".

On the night of April 9th, Wu Zhensheng, one of the founders of the birds, died of the accident after being hit by a traffic accident. He died at the age of 54.

Looking at the announcement of the announcement of bird lovers, it was discovered that as at the end of the third quarter of last year, Wu Zhensheng held 43 million 600 thousand and 900 shares of news bird and was the second largest shareholder of the company.

Previous Joy came from a notice. In March 30th, the news birds announced the first quarter earnings announcement. In the first quarter of this year, it is expected that the net profit will reach 70 million 372 thousand and 400 yuan -8796.55 million yuan, an increase of 100%-150% over the same period last year.

In response, the news bird said that in addition to the HAZZYS brand still growing, as well as no equity incentive shares to pay this period, the government subsidies received by the wedding birds were larger than the same period last year.

According to the 2018 annual performance bulletin published by mid autumn festival in mid February, the newsbirds achieved 3 billion 115 million yuan in revenue last year, an increase of 19.76% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 52 million 454 thousand and 300 yuan to the parent company, an increase of 102.3% over the same period last year.

The contribution to the performance of the birds is still the sales growth of the brands such as the birds, HAZZYS and so on. And the second main industry internet finance, which was once vigorously developed by the birds, was not mentioned.

Li Jie, an analyst at Everbright Securities, said that since 2013, the news birds have been affected by the adjustment of men's clothing industry, the poor retail performance of terminal, and the change of channels. Things didn't get better until 2017.

The development of the second main business has become the strategy of the wedding birds. In 2015, with the Internet Financial draught, the news birds began to act. In that year, the news bird venture invested 55 million yuan to buy 10% stake in small fish and gold clothing. The small fish gold clothing has operated two Internet financial projects through two wholly owned subsidiaries, namely pocket management and Zhang Cunbao (formerly Wenzhou loan).

But Internet finance has changed dramatically. In 2018, the P2P thunderstorm affected the performance of small fish gold clothing. According to the financial report data, the 2018 revenue and net profit data of small fish gold clothing decreased by 49.62% and 65.24% compared with the previous year, with a net loss of 35 million yuan.

In January 19th of this year, the good news birds offered small fish and gold clothes for sale. The total amount of financial assets was 46 million 368 thousand and 200 yuan. This is 1.79 times the net profit of the wedding bird in 2017.

Misfortunes never come alone. In the morning of March 25th, pocket finance was investigated by a public security department in a certain province of Jiangsu Province, and all office facilities were closed on that day.

Perhaps the news birds didn't expect that they planned to take off again with one main business strategy and open up the imagination space, and ultimately the force would be the clothing business. But it seems that the birds haven't strengthened their movements and intentions.

I have contacted a number of brokerage analysts to make a deeper understanding of the business layout of the company. But in view of the death of the founder of the wedding bird, many analysts said they were time sensitive and unwilling to comment.

One worry

If the news birds are still half joys and woe, then the "bird of honor" can be regarded as a worrying prospect.

In January 31st, GUI bird released a performance notice. The company expects net profit of 1-12 months in 2018 to be 640 million to 820 million loss, down 506.85% to 621.27% over the same period last year.

The market can't help asking, what's wrong with the birds?

According to Guotai Junan Research Report, from the perspective of clothing market structure, sports brand concentration is the highest, and the market concentration of the top ten enterprises in 2017 is 73%.

The sports brands that used to be on the same track with the birds are Anta, Lining and other sports brands. Compared with the latter, the situation of the birds in recent years is self-evident. Some media even call it a "bird with wings".

After consulting the relevant announcement, we found that the main business of the company is expected to lose about 470 million yuan, which is the biggest loss.

The announcement pointed out that in the second half of 2018, the expensive bird spent about 150 million yuan, and purchased the resources of marketing channels for 14 key provincial regional distributors. At the same price, it repurchased about 340 million yuan of goods that had not yet been sold. This further leads to a decrease in sales revenue and an increase in end inventory, and the provision for falling stock prices at the end of the period will increase.

To add insult to injury, the loss of investment is 116 million yuan due to the disposal of shares in the controlling shareholder.

In 2015, you are still a local tyrant. In that year, the first annual report of the landlord after the landing of A shares was made. It's just that this annual report is not satisfactory.

It is understood that the cumulative investment of the birds has exceeded 2 billion, including the second largest shareholder of tiger pads; investment in Spain football economic company; bought the US equipment brand; bought the 37% stake of the Kang Pai Si sports for the layout of campus sports business; bought the famous shoe store, Jie Xing and so on.

Even the birds are two times in the field of insurance.

Expensive birds spend money lavishly, trying to lay out all fields related to sports, so as to be a good student of "all-round development". At the same time, you once renamed the omnipotent sport, but it ended up in the end.

But behind the diversification, it is the complaint and vague position of "doing nothing". That's why the market defines weird birds very weird: an insurance clothing retailing technology company.

Ambition is great, but reality throws cold water on the birds. The "good student" began to decline after the peak of net profit of 528 million yuan in 2012. The net profit in 2016 was 293 million, the net profit in 2017 was 157 million, and the net profit in 2018 was negative.

Even in the acquisition of Jay, the shoe store, and its revenue surged to its peak of 3 billion 252 million in 2017, the net profit of the precious bird declined sharply, down 46.25% compared to the same period last year. This is also the worst year for year-on-year growth in net profit.

To this end, the company has received two letters of inquiry from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Behind the letter is the disappointment of the regulatory authorities on the achievements of the birds.

It is noteworthy that, at the same time of deteriorating performance, the joint rating decided in January 31st this year to include the long-term credit rating of the main body and the credit rating of "14 noble birds" in the rating list that may reduce the credit rating.

When will the frustrated birds return?

One joy

There are different reasons for sadness. The reason for joy is simple.

Among the three birds, the Pacific bird is the most "peaceful" one and still sticks to its main business.

In 2018, the best performance of Pacific bird. 7 billion 712 million yuan business income and 572 million yuan to the mother net profit, all hit the Taiping bird historical record.

This year, Taiping bird opened 343 stores, and the total number of shops reached 4594 by the end of 2018.

The icing on the cake is that after today's closing, Taiping bird announced that the company will hold a shareholders' meeting on April 22nd, including consideration of the bonus scheme. Taiping bird plans to pay 10 yuan for every 10 shares of cash.

It is worth mentioning that the Wind data show that Taiping bird received government subsidies to reach 183 million yuan, an increase of 43.48% over the same period last year. According to the annual report of Taiping bird, the proportion of government subsidies in net profit of the company has increased from 7.83% in 2014 to more than 30% in 2018.

From 1989, men's shirts began to take place. Until 1996, the Pacific bird brand was founded. Over the past 20 years, Taiping bird joined the battle of the old clothing enterprises and was once blocked. The bird's past days were not peaceful.

Wind data show that in 2013, Taiping net profit increased by 112% over the same period last year. Behind this, there were nearly 30% losses in 31 stores. By the middle of 2014, Taiping's assets and liabilities reached 60.8%, much higher than 45.6% of the industry average.

Based on such a "failure", IPO began to declare the Taiping bird in 2014, and it took 3 years to complete the bell successfully. So Zhang Jiangping, founder, said, "IPO has been out of temper for many years."

The Pacific bird is one of the three birds listed at the latest.

What really enables the bird to fly is to spanform the electricity supplier. Taiping bird, which started online business in 2008, is the earliest group of similar enterprises.

In the past 10 years, the GMV of Taiping bird has increased from the initial 7 million yuan to 3 billion 600 million yuan in 2018. According to the Pacific bird annual report, online sales accounted for 21.07% of the total retail sales in 2018, compared with 12.61% in 2015.

Next, for Taiping bird, is it a smooth road or a storm?

Galaxy Securities believes that clothing consumption has a concave structure in recent years, that is, fast consumption and high-end consumer goods account for a relatively high proportion. At the same time, the proportion of consumers in the low line cities has a significant trend of improvement, and the desire for consumption is strong.

This means the upgrading of consumption structure on the basis of China's consumption stratification. In the era of consumption stratification, the leading role of clothing represents the growth of value.

Industrial spanformation

Starting from the beginning of the steady development of the apparel industry in 2014, the major clothing brands have gone through 5 years of exploration: to focus on developing the main business, or to diversify and diversify?

The "listing bird" has started a new round of decision-making and hesitation in the capital market.

More than 10 years of listed birds have become more confused. The layout area is covered by cross-border e-commerce, online education, e-commerce, Internet finance, big data, Internet + and other fields, and the main business is slowly fading out in the mainstream market.

In 2014, when the main business was losing year by year, it also gradually expanded its scale of industry, from the concept of football to the sports industry, equity insurance, to the ice and snow industry.

More than a year ago, Taiping bird chose to deepen the main industry, continue to increase R & D investment in the main industry, and expand the field of e-commerce and new retail. At the same time, Taiping bird subdivides girl brand Lok Ting, children's clothing brand MINI PEACE, American fashion brand Material Girl and so on.

This is the epitome of brand clothing enterprises responding to industry spanformation.

Dongxing Securities Research Report believes that the three major factors driving clothing consumption include the growth of per capita disposable income, the promotion of urbanization and the rise of the middle and high income class. Along with the slow progress of these three key factors, the growth rate of garment industry is affected.

In the MatchU code co founder and CPO Wei Xin, it seems that with the deepening of the consumption stratification, different groups are becoming more and more intense for personalized demand. The upsurge of consumer market demand makes clothing enterprises pay more attention to the research and satisfaction of end user needs.

Among them, the impact of the expanding middle class and the Z generation can not be ignored.

According to European Union information consulting, in 2020, the middle class in China was 246 million, and by 2020, the middle class and the wealthy will reach more than 400 million. The middle class will contribute more to the overall consumption of the clothing industry.

The Z generation (born after 95 and the new generation after 00) is stepping into society. They will become an increasingly important consumer force in the clothing industry. Their demand for differentiation and high-end products is also higher.

When garment industrialization collide with the demand of individuation, the contradiction is increasing day by day. Overcapacity, serious inventory, rising labor costs and inadequate innovation mechanism have restricted the development of the industry.

Transformation and upgrading urgently need. Cheng Weixiong, general manager of textile and clothing brand management and Shanghai Liang Qi Brand Management Co., Ltd., told zinc finance and economics that the brand decline of traditional online and offline businesses will be eliminated, and the whole channel brand that caters to the new consumer experience will be bigger and stronger.

"With the diversification of user experience, the opportunity for garment industry is a new business opportunity for the imbalance between consumption upgrading and consumer demotion brought about by the continuous advance and standardization of the local market."

Opportunity is also a new industry change in the eyes of Chen Xiaokui, general manager and design director of Guangzhou Heng Xu fashion planning Co., Ltd. Whoever can spanform in a short period of time will have market advantage. But the biggest dilemma is how to allocate and utilize existing resources reasonably.

Cheng Weixiong believes that a reasonable allocation of existing resources also means that the garment industry is in the stage of restructuring: brand, product, channel, user and user experience are dominant, and new combinations will bring about changes in the distribution of traffic and profit.

And Wei Xin describes a more technological sense of the garment industry spanformation. She said that flexible manufacturing, online and offline integration development, artificial intelligence, big data and other advanced technology, will also become a new trend in the spanformation and upgrading of the industry.

These may be the new wings for the three birds to fly higher.