Analysis Of The Reasons For The Recent PX Price Drop

Figure PX price chart in the near future

In the recent decline of PX prices, there are four stages.

March 7th -3 27, PX prices showed a gradual downward trend (Hengli device news continued to suppress the market).

March 28th -4 5 months, a narrow increase, the overall range of shock (constant force device news digest basically completed, PTA expect more maintenance device, price increases, demand side boost).

April 8th -4 12, price high operation (MAI Liao Taiwan explosion, May PX supply tight).

April 15th -4 18, PX price cliff fall (Hengli 2 line at the end of the month to get through the whole process; valuation for months, the future supply side has a substantial increase in expectations, dragging down the trend of PX; rumors that many ports PX storage tanks have been filled, such as Ningbo, Dalian and Jiangyin; valuation window, a pair of major buyers and sellers for disputes, temporarily withdraw from the valuation, resulting in no delivery, and does not exclude individual sellers from the PX disk.

The specific circumstances are as follows:

In March 7th, the market crazy rumors that Hengli PX device trial run, Hengli PX device news continued to suppress the prelude to PX price trend started this way, and ended the long term naphtha with the rise of crude oil, PX cost side drive PX price rise situation.

The following markets continue to have information on the whole process of refining and refining, and PX prices continue to fall.

From March 7th to March 27th, the price of PX fell by 97.08 US dollars / ton to US $1034.92 / ton CFR, or 8.58%.

The cost end naphtha prices continued to rise with crude oil, PX and naphtha oil price difference fell 126 U.S. dollars / ton, to 468.67 U.S. dollars / ton.

Beginning at the end of March, due to the expected PTA repair device more, PTA futures prices rose, the PX market was boosted, and then began to enter the downstream market to determine the situation of PX price trend. During this period, PX prices rose narrowly and were in a range of shocks.

From March 28th to April 5th, the price of PX was 1038.33-1041.67 dollars / ton /CFR, and the overall price rose by a narrow margin.

In April 7th, the explosion of the Mai Liao platform plant was forced to shut down line 3, with a capacity of 870 thousand tons / year.

PX market in May, the supply of goods was unusually tense, and the platform began to purchase the spot. Hengli began to purchase contracts for the second half of the year, considering the tension of goods in May. This is the fundamental reason for the high price of PX on April 8th 12 -4.

From April 8th to April 12th, the price of PX rose by 30.67 US dollars / ton to US $1069 / ton CFR, or 2.95%.

PXN prices back to $481.72 / ton.

On the 18 day of -4 April 15th, in just four days, the price of PX fell by 103.33 US dollars to 965.67 US dollars per ton, or 9.76%.

In four days, PXN fell 95.03 US dollars / ton. In April 18th, PX fell to 381.67 US dollars per ton.

The reasons for the fall of the PX cliff on the four day are mainly in the following aspects:

1, Hengli 2 line at the end of the month to get through the whole process, and again suppress the PX price trend.

2, the valuation of the month, using the valuation method in June and July, and the supply side of June and July has increased expectations (because the constant force device has the possibility of mass production, the Sinochem Hong Kong 600 thousand ton unit has been put into operation in June, the Hainan refining and chemical plant 1 million tons of equipment in July production of qualified products, Heng Yi Brunei 1 million 500 thousand tons of equipment, the whole flow of Cheng Datong), restricting the trend of PX.

3, many ports PX storage tanks have been filled, such as Ningbo, Dalian and Jiangyin.

At present, local ship branches are waiting in line for the capacity of the tank. Some manufacturers have heard that PX will be pferred to other ports.

4, valuation window, a pair of main buyers and sellers temporarily withdraw from the valuation due to disputes, resulting in the emergence of a non delivery disk, the seller panic selling, the offer fell sharply, and did not exclude individual sellers from lowering the PX disk.

At present, the price of PXN is falling too fast, and superimposed by the us today that it has announced the termination of the sanctions sanction for Iran's oil imports. Influenced by geopolitical factors, oil prices have risen sharply, and PTA futures prices have shown signs of rising. It is expected that the sharp decline in short-term PX will be curbed. However, due to the increased supply pressure in the future, the long-term price of PX will continue downward trend.

Appendix: Interpretation of przewalskii's Methodology

The most popular PX price in the market (CFR China) is the shipping price of the far month, which is estimated by przewalskii and the average price of the benchmark price is fourth, fifth, sixth and a half months, and PX is changed every month for 15 days.

For example, before April 15th, the price of PX will be determined by the average price in the next 5 months, in June and in June. The price of PX will be determined by the average price in June, 6 and July in June.

That is to say, after April 15th, the price in July will be included in the PX price taking month, and the current PX benchmark price is closer to the price of PX cargo under the 6 month of the month.

In the second half of 4 months, the price of PX was incorporated into the pricing system in June and July. Due to the large number of PX installations planned to go into operation during the period, the market's expectations for the far months were always poor, and the price of PX began to weaken. The quotation in just four days fell 103.33 dollars.