India Yarn Exports Cause "Big Trouble" Central Asian Cotton Yarn Or "Opportunity To Take Advantage Of".

2-4 cotton prices in India rose again and again in three months (S-6 1-5/32 domestic sales price rose from 78-89 cents / pound to 86-87 cents / pound, or more than 10%), and the profit of cotton mill was severely shrinking. In order to make profits or reduce losses, the export price of cotton yarn in India was also "soaring" (but still could not keep up with cotton's "footsteps"). The direct result was that the consumption demand of cotton yarn in India continued to decline, which in turn restricts cotton prices to rise further; two, India cotton exports encountered "Waterloo", especially the "futures yarn" signing decline was very prominent, not only buyers in China, Pakistan and other countries, but also Bangladesh weaving enterprises and traders also complained. According to India's domestic cotton mills and exporters,

Cotton yarn trading enterprises in Qingdao, Guangzhou, Ningbo and other places indicated that on the one hand, because of the larger cotton cotton yarn price increase, the India mills and export enterprises had broken down and broke the phenomenon. The Chinese enterprises were not too cold on the spot and shipping goods of the India yarn. The price and price of bonded OE, C16-C32 high package bleached yarn were also not satisfactory. On the other hand, the prices of Central Asian cotton yarn (mainly Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, etc.), Vietnamese yarn, Pakistan, Thailand yarn, yarn and other CNF and FOB were more competitive than those of the yarn.

Some traders and weaving mills indicated that India yarn is becoming more and more difficult to enter and occupy the Chinese market in the short term. Besides price and breach of contract, there are two factors:

First, under the Sino Pakistani free trade agreement, Pakistan can not only export cotton yarn to China without zero tariff, but also continue to export textiles and garments to China (import India cotton yarn still need to pay 5% tariffs). The competitiveness of Pakistan's cotton yarn, grey fabric and textiles is all strengthened. India's export of Chinese cotton yarn is likely to be left behind by Pakistan after being thrown away by Vietnam.

Second, the India rupee has entered the medium and long term appreciation channel, from Asia's worst currency to the best, which is not conducive to India's cotton and cotton yarn exports.

In the past five weeks, the India rupee rose from 1 US dollars to 71 yuan to 1 US dollars to 69.17 level (late March), the highest level in Asia. This is the strongest trend that rupee has experienced since August 2018.

India's export price of cotton yarn has no reason to rise sharply.

Moreover, foreign investment betting on the India general election and the India rupee in 2018 has led to a longer cycle of appreciation.