Trade War "Cotton Changes": Brazil Cotton Or Become A Big Winner!

Impact of trade war on upstream cotton

Brazil cotton imports increase sharply

Once China has imposed a 25% tariff on US cotton imports, trade flows will turn to Brazil, India and Australia, and US cotton imports will fall sharply in the share of China's imports of cotton. China's cotton imports amounted to 1 million 370 thousand tons in 2017/18, of which 540 thousand tons were imported from the United States and cotton, accounting for 39% of the total imports. Australia imported 340 thousand tons, accounting for 25% of the total imports; India imported 165 thousand tons, accounting for 12% of the total imports; Brazil imported 88 thousand tons, accounting for 6% of the total imports.

Brazil cotton is replacing the US cotton as China's largest cotton importing country. Affected by trade wars, the share of US cotton imports fell rapidly from 39% in 17/18 to 13%, while Brazil's share rose sharply from 6% to 33%.

US cotton exports expand to Southeast Asia

At present, the main export countries of the US cotton are Vietnam, China, Indonesia and Turkey, whose export share is 23.83%, 16.24%, 8.52% and 7.99% respectively, among which Vietnam is the largest export market of the United States cotton. Due to the trade war, China's contracted volume has been greatly reduced in recent years, and the destruction of contracts has continued. It is estimated that the export of US cotton will continue to be transferred to Vietnam, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia.

The impact of trade war on textile and garment industry

China is the largest producer and exporter of textiles and clothing in the world. According to customs statistics, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China amounted to US $276 billion 731 million in 2018, of which the total export volume of textiles was US $119 billion 98 million and the total export volume of garments was US $157 billion 633 million. In 2019 1-4, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 75 billion 764 million US dollars, down 3.86% from the same period last year. Textile exports amounted to US $36 billion 672 million, an increase of 0.91% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $39 billion 92 million, a decrease of 8.63% over the same period last year.

If the trade war continues to escalate, it will have a direct impact on China's textile and clothing exports. China's textile and garment exporting countries mainly include the European Union, the United States, Japan and Vietnam. Among them, the United States is China's largest exporter of textiles and clothing, accounting for 17.2% of China's textile and clothing exports in 2018.

The export tax increase of US $200 billion has little impact.

In the 200 billion US dollars, cotton, knitted hooks, hat and leather products were included in the list. The total amount of products exported to the United States in 2018 was 9 billion US dollars, accounting for 21.2% of China's exports of textiles and clothing to the United States, accounting for 3.3% of China's textile and clothing exports. Therefore, the US tax increase of US $200 billion on export commodities is 25%, which has little impact on the domestic textile industry, and the impact on cotton demand is about 100 thousand tons.

Table 1:2018 China's $200 billion list covers textiles and clothing categories

Source: Zhong Cai Futures Research Institute

300 billion US dollars increase in export tax increases

If we levy a tax on US $300 billion of China's exports, it will cover all textiles and clothing exported to the United States, amounting to US $47 billion 600 million, accounting for 17% of China's textile and clothing exports, and the impact on cotton demand will be about 1 million tons, accounting for 11.7% left and right of cotton consumption in China. Therefore, if we raise taxes on US $300 billion export commodities, textile downstream demand will continue to weaken.

Southeast Asian countries will gradually replace the share of China's textile and clothing supply in the United States once they raise taxes on US $300 billion in Chinese exports. For the United States, China is the largest supplier of textiles and clothing in the United States, accounting for 50% of the share of textiles and clothing imports in the United States, accounting for 30% of the share of cotton textiles and clothing. The main importers of cotton textiles in the United States include India, Pakistan, Vietnam and so on. Sino US trade war has made the export of textile industry in Southeast Asian countries have greater competitive advantage.

Summary and Prospect

The impact of trade war includes the change of the trade flow direction of raw material and downstream textile and garment side. For China, Brazil will occupy the import share of the US cotton and become the main supplier of cotton in China. Due to the reduction of demand in China, the export of US cotton will expand to Southeast Asian countries.

200 billion the increase in tariffs will have little impact on domestic cotton, and the 300 billion tariff on all textiles and clothing will have a greater impact on the downstream of domestic textiles. The impact on domestic cotton demand will be around 1 million tons.

Under the influence of trade war, cotton exports in Brazil are better, and cotton production in the latter stage is expected to maintain substantial growth. And US cotton exports will remain weak. In the year of 19/20 cotton production increased by 20%, the pressure on late sales increased. China's cotton demand side will continue to weaken, and the textile industry in Southeast Asia will have greater competitiveness.