Second Half Of The Clothing Sector Is Expected To "Light Up" To Gradually Accelerate The Recovery.

Affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, domestic clothing consumption has been showing a downward trend since the second half of 2018.

The latest statistics show that in April, retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needles and textiles showed a year-on-year growth rate of -1.1%, the first decline in recent years.

Analysts believe that in the weak demand for terminal demand, the slowdown in the growth of the garment industry can not be avoided, but changes in the industry itself need to be concerned.

The pressure on the growth of the garment industry in the second half of this year will be eased due to a substantial reduction in base pressure.

In addition, the overall consumption expectation is also improving at the marginal level, and the overall warming of the consumer is expected to gradually pmit, eventually driving the industry recovery.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles increased negatively in April, after a 1.80% year-on-year growth rate in 2019, 1-2 in April.

For the above data, many analysts believe that this is mainly caused by the "May Day holiday" factor.

CITIC investment analyst Hua Xiaowei, Shi Kun said that the overall consumption of the optional products was significantly affected by the "wrong month of holiday", and the clothing with higher correlation was the most dragged down, with negative growth year-on-year.

It is expected that the growth of clothing consumption will rebound significantly in May, and at the same time, it is expected to remain low and high growth expectations for the whole year.

CITIC Securities research report pointed out that the actual situation of the apparel industry is more optimistic than expected.

Compared with several rounds of adjustment in recent years, the overall environment of the industry is improving, the inventory situation is more healthy, the store structure is more reasonable, and the industry competition pattern is clearer.

Although the overall clothing consumption and the operation of listed companies weakened in the second half of 2018, the growth pressure in the second half of 2019 eased considerably compared with the larger growth base in the first half of 2018 compared with the first half of 2019.

More importantly, the overall consumption expectation is improving at the marginal level. As a cyclical industry after the consumption boom, the revival of clothing consumption may "be late but not absent".

Guoxin Securities analyst Zhang Junhao also believes that from the recent industry and key companies' data performance, the clothing industry has a more obvious marginal improvement trend.

With the promotion of consumer policy, tax reduction and other policies and the impact of this year's May Day holiday on consumption stimulus, the industry fundamentals are expected to be accelerated in the two quarter after the elimination of the underlying causes.

Although the annual performance of the clothing industry in 2018 and the quarterly report in 2019 were weaker, the research institutions agreed that the clothing industry itself has a large number of products, and the prosperity and life cycle of different categories are different.

Everbright Securities analyst Li Jie and sun did not hint that children's clothing and sportswear showed a higher growth rate in recent years, while other categories were relatively mature and low growth, but they could still produce large volume, sustained growth and strong risk resisting ability, such as the field of public clothing.

CITIC Securities emphasizes that from the industry dimension, it is optimistic about the leading sports and children's clothing industry.

Although the clothing industry has not yet completed the process of leading screening, it has reached the key turning point of the rise of the head and the construction of the core barrier.

In the three sub sectors that can generate large cap companies, according to the characteristics of the industry, the order of the leading companies may be: sports and children's wear, public leisure, high-end / personalized brand groups.

CITIC is also optimistic about the two subdivision areas of children's wear and sports. Children's clothing emphasizes quality and sports functions, and can form a strong brand premium and get more channel support. It recommends focusing on Semir clothing and Anta sports (HK Stock Company).

In addition, in the short and medium term, the first choice is the high cost performance of the public clothing leading, recommended the home of Hai Lan and the absolute leader of boatman (HK Stock Company).

In the middle and high-end brands, we hope that the companies with clear epitaxy, multi brand landing and stronger risk resistance will recommend the blue lead, such as the song Li Si, an Zheng fashion, and golf costumes and professional travel costumes, and the branding force is gradually forming the biyin Lefin.