Glycol Trend Slightly Improved, Is It A Rebound Or A Bottoming Up?

In recent days, glycol market trend is slightly abnormal.

The impact of the crude oil slump will avoid the downside of the polyester start-up contraction, and prices will begin to pick up. Can it change the current decline after 9 months of decline?

The supply side is slightly neutral.

From the domestic supply side, at present, the integration device from the economic benefit considerations (according to the current EO-MEG price comparison, 7300 yuan / ton of EO still has a certain profit space), has increased EO output, compressed MEG production, and the later integration production compression space is very limited; and the gas equipment began to open and repair since April, and some device restarts have been delayed, in June, there are still equipment maintenance plans, although the current details are not clear, but it is sure that the overall start load of the synthetic gas unit will have a small elevation with the restarting of the earlier installation repair.

Therefore, the overall supply side is slightly neutral, and the supporting point of good is not obvious.

On the other hand, foreign sources are affected by the news of South Asian plant maintenance and so on. It is expected that the volume of imports will be stable in June.

Dock glycol degrade slightly

Since May, domestic coal glycol glycol has increased, and some integrated units have also been reduced.

Although polyester maintained high load operation, inventory declined slowly under rigid demand support.

As of May 23rd, China Eastern wharf stock dropped to 149 thousand tons, and in May, it dropped 133 thousand tons.

Terminal demand is not optimistic.

The situation of polyester in the near future is also not optimistic, because the terminal order situation is not good, causing the stock to rise continuously, and the terminal takes more on demand procurement strategy.

From the cost point of view, the mainstream suppliers have been repurchasing PTA spot in recent years, and prices continue to be strong, resulting in the overall shrinking of polyester cash flow.

Under the common pressure from both ends of supply and demand, domestic polyester enterprises continue to report maintenance messages. By the end of this week, the polyester comprehensive utilization rate has dropped to 88.53%.

On the whole, however, there is no new positive impetus on the fundamentals of ethylene glycol. However, when the market price falls below the cost line, the willingness to empty will be weakened.

In addition, the current price of ethylene glycol is in the low position after the 08 financial crisis. Under the expectation of supply and demand mitigation in June, there is little expectation of further downward trend in the market.

(source: Zhuo Chuang information, long Zhong information)