Polyester Market Is Now "Chicken Blood" Market Short-Term Boost Polyester Filament.

After more than half a month of continuous decline, PTA futures finally gained a rebound in May 27th.

As of May 27th closing, PTA main futures 1909 closed quotation 5436 points, compared with the previous trading day rose 120 points, or 2.26%.

In addition to PTA, the futures contracts for ethylene glycol also rose to varying degrees in May 27th.

Especially polyester filament, a few days ago is still in the doldrums, and once again said that the rise has risen; in particular, some manufacturers have changed the previous preferential measures, 27 days have raised the price of 50-100 yuan / ton.

On the weekend, the production and sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets were warmer. The average production and sales of mainstream polyester factories were around 240%, and some of them were up to 300%500%.

The polyester environment in May was completely spent in a falling voice. Why did the polyester raw materials rebound at the end of the month?

1, polyester raw materials can not fall, the whole industry chain profit is missing.

According to the above table, polyester products prices are on the decline since the same period last year.

The biggest decline was ethylene glycol, the decline was as high as 41.94%, PX fell 16.45%, POY150D fell 16.18%, and the rest of the raw material prices also showed a significant downward trend.

Compared to last April, raw material prices continued to rise, or up to 70%, the polyester raw materials this year has come out of the altar of rising prices, and the current prices are in the low position over the years.

Take PTA as an example, at present, PTA price has dropped to the beginning of the year.

According to the PTA production cost, after the last round of PX price rapid decline, the PTA processing price difference showed a rocket rapid rush and then fell rapidly.

The production cost of domestic PTA plant is 5119.86 yuan / ton, and PTA processing cost is 1155 yuan / ton, down 456 yuan from last month, or 28.3%.

As the saying goes, a long fall will rise, and the price is always low and innovative, so that the market will have to wait for the rising of the bottom.

2, under the background of low raw material inventory of weaving factories, we will welcome the replenishment of the end of the month.

Although the downstream weaving Market is not optimistic, the rate of start-up has not been substantially reduced.

From the data point of view, at present, the average opening rate of the weaving Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces can still be maintained at around 6-7, and the rate of opening up in Shengze is relatively strong, which is at 8-9 level.

Based on the needs of the downstream weaving Market and the prudent operation of raw materials procurement, the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is relatively common.

Second, it is now in the late May. For the downstream weaving Market, it has both the demand for invoices at the end of the month, as well as the low demand for raw materials and the need for stocking, plus the low level of polyester prices.

No matter what aspects, it has stimulated the enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers, and promoted a certain market production and marketing.

It can be seen that the rebound of polyester raw materials is mainly due to the fact that profits have fallen, and the low raw materials inventory has been catalyzed.

1, polyester material "collapse" space is still in

Although there is no need to overamplify the impact of clothing and textile on the polyester raw materials in the United States, there is still a bad time.

It is not just polyester demand growth that may not be as expected as the price war of polyester products. In fact, the cost support collapse of the 2019-2020 year PX capacity increase has been staged in April.

In fact, after a substantial decline, the processing price difference of PX has been very low or even at a loss, so there is limited space below.

However, the weak pattern of PX is basically determined, and the support of PTA is no longer available at cost.

The new capacity of Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons has just been put into operation. In the 9-0 month of this year, the new capacity of new Feng Ming is about to be released. In 2020, the new round of PTA expansion cycle will be opened.

The expansion period of downstream polyester will basically come to a close this year. The growth of terminal demand is closely related to the macro economy, and whether its growth trend is expected to be strong is still unknown.

Therefore, for the PTA far month price, the opening of the downlink cycle will probably happen sooner or later.

Thanks to the high opening rate of polyester, the current PTA social inventory level is not high. In fact, it is still in a state of supply and demand balance. Its direct supply and demand relationship has not changed drastically, so even if the whole industry chain is in a weak pattern, PTA price still fluctuates.

If polyester drops sharply, the supply of PTA will increase sharply, and once again fall into an oversupply period. At the same time, according to the processing fee of 600 yuan, PTA will still have larger profit margins. If the market still has no good news guidelines, it will not rule out that the processing profit will continue to be compressed.

The processing price difference of PTA will be redistributed and the price will be difficult to improve.

2, weaving Market is hard to pick up.

Polyester raw materials ushered in a long rebound, can drive the downstream weaving market warmer?

The conclusion seems to be a bit pessimistic.

At present, the accumulation of grey cloth inventory is indeed very serious in the market.

Because the off-season in the first half of this year is nearly half a month earlier than in previous years, most of the weaving enterprises have more than half a month's inventory.

Using a water jet loom to weave 300 meter cloth every day, a large and medium size weaving mill of 500 loom looms can weave cloth of 300*500*30 equal to 4 million 500 thousand meters in a month, even if it is half a month's inventory, it also has more than 200 million meters.

An industry and trade integration, the main polyester taffe, Oxford cloth, also owns its own weaving factory responsible person Shen manager told the author: for weaving factory, inventory is obviously more, pressure is big, put forward a very big test to capital.

Liu, another textile company, also said that the number of orders for big customers this year was small. Last year, there were many varieties of hundreds of thousands of meters, but this year there was nothing more.

From the understanding of the situation, grey cloth inventory is indeed quite a lot, and there are also some cases of dumping in the market.

This shows that this year's textile business has indeed declined over the past two years, and the accumulation of grey cloth inventory is also difficult to digest.

Compared with the same period in the past year, the profit of weaving factories is relatively low. "At this time last year, the polyester taffeta produced by us can earn 100 yuan a day. Now it will be good if it does not lose. Most of the polyester taffeta looms can earn 10 yuan, and 190T polyester taff has already lost money."

Shen Chang, owner of a weaving mill in Wujiang, said.

Due to the impact of peripheral capacity, this year's market for conventional products has been on the high side of the peak season, and these products have become weaker in the market in May.

Some manufacturers said that Tak Tak fell from 1.70 yuan / m at the beginning of the year to the current 1.10 yuan / meter.

(according to common sense, raw materials cost 1000 yuan per person, which is reflected in the cost of grey cloth in 0.10-0.20 yuan / M). At the beginning of this year, the polyester filament FDY has dropped by 1300 yuan / ton. If only the raw material brought down, the grey cloth will only need to drop 0.10-0.20 yuan / meter, but now the price of polyester tower has fallen by 0.50 yuan / meter, of which 0.30 yuan / meter is eroding the original profit margin of the manufacturer.

It is reported that at present, 230T polyester taff has a certain reserve capacity in the market, and 190T polyester taff has entered the margin of profit and loss.

"The market is going on like this, that is to weave a day cloth, and lose one day!

But the machine can't stop. It can only be sold at a low price and changed for cash.

Another textile factory owner Chen said.

How long will the rebound of raw materials last?

There is no definite answer to this question.

At present, the emergence of the rebound has certain advantages for the current market.

Industry analysts say that unlike the next production and marketing, the market needs a "beating chicken blood" market in the long run, and the desire to buy the weaving industry will be more intense.

But at present, the polyester market wants to get out of the bull market of last year, which is more difficult. In the short term, it really provides a booster power for the polyester filament market. With the production and marketing of polyester factories better, the pressure of high storage pressure has also been alleviated to a certain extent. However, after all, the impact on the polyester filament market is short-term and effective.

(source: futures daily, China silk net)