Weekly Report Of Textile And Garment Industry: The Development Of Channel Stock Needs Deep Tillage Of Brand Nuggets.

In the 2011-2015 year, the shopping center was rising, and the sales of clothing entities were diverted.

We believe that clothing, as a traditional consumer product, was first sold in department stores, and is the main source of sales in department stores, attracting consumers to enter the shops through brand stores.

According to the China Business Information Center, sales of clothing in department stores gradually increased in 2011-2015 years, and negative growth for the first time in 10 years in 2015. Retail sales of 100 key shopping malls declined by 0.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 20.7pct compared with 2011.

We believe that in addition to the impact of e-commerce channels, the rise of offline shopping centers is the main reason for the diversion of traditional department stores.

Euro data show that in 2015, clothing industry electricity supplier sales accounted for 18.5%, an increase of 16.7pct compared to 2011.

In the shopping center, taking the high-end women's clothing industry as an example, in the past 2011-2015 years, brand clothing stores (including shopping center stores) have achieved a compound growth rate of 10.21% of retail sales, which is 2.25pct higher than that of traditional department stores. From a single brand perspective, the retail sales of Taiping bird shopping center increased from 890 million yuan to 1 billion 930 million yuan, the annual compound growth rate was 47.5%, while the composite growth rate of department stores was 21.7% at the same time. We think this reflects the emerging channels at the beginning of the emergence, which not only brings challenges to the traditional clothing retail channels, but also creates incremental space for the development of clothing retailing.

Shopping Center Entertainment attracts a large number of customers. After entering the stock development, retail formats are still more than half.

According to the growth rate of shopping centers in recent years, the number of new shopping centers in 2018 exceeded 530, an increase of 5.8% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 19pct compared with 2016. The new business volume was 46 million square meters, up by -0.5% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 26pct compared with 2016. At the same time, the data of win win network showed that the volume of business opening in 2019 was basically the same as that in 2018, and we judged that the industry gradually entered a stable development stage from rapid development.

From the perspective of the format structure, the retail business format of the 2014-2017 Year Shopping Center accounted for more than 50%, ranking first in the rankings, and basically ranked second higher than the catering 20PCT.

In 2018, the new retail center accounted for 9% of the retail business, while catering, entertainment and entertainment accounted for 38% and 30% respectively.

We judged that the retail proportion of shopping centers was slightly lower than that of department stores.

In the long run, however, retail formats still occupy half of the total.

There is room for pformation of department stores, and channels can be improved and brand or differentiated.

On the other hand, department stores, through a series of pformation measures, including the integration of online and offline, the expansion of multi category stores, the establishment of membership system and digital management, some enterprises are showing signs of bottom up.

Taking Yintai as an example, the same store sales in 2018 increased by 37% over the same period last year. The growth of the same store is the result of multiple reforms and upgrading services.

Department stores as the mainstream channel of clothing sales, we believe that there are still plenty of room for growth. The reasons include: 1. In recent years, department stores have increased their catering, service and paternity status, showing the trend of shopping centralization; second, the concentration of brands in department stores is more concentrated and optional, which can meet the diverse needs of different consumers.

However, the growth of the channel does not guarantee the inevitable improvement of the brand. We think the brand may be differentiated because the improvement of department stores is based on the adjustment of its own business.

Similarly, brands also need to improve their products and services in an all-round way to meet changing market demands.

It is recommended to focus on multi brand layout enterprises with channel advantages.

We believe that sales channel resources are one of the core competitiveness of brand clothing. Although commercial real estate development is showing a sustained growth trend, commercial channel resources with high commercial value and stable contribution to higher passenger volume are still relatively limited. Therefore, the brand clothing that has been placed in the early stage is easy to form a first mover advantage, and at the initial stage of development, it enjoys an incremental dividend, further consolidating the brand market position and deepening the brand image.

We judge that enterprises with channel advantages, multi brand development and mature member management are expected to take the lead in boosting growth under the trend of gradual improvement in mainstream channels. We should pay more attention to Brune, Ann fashion, Hai Lan home, Semir dress and Pacific bird.

Next week's combination (20190610-20190616): Jiansheng group (weight 25%), Hai Lan's home (weight 25%), an Zheng fashion (weight 25%), Be Meleven (weight 25%).

Risk warning.

Terminal demand declined, retail environment deteriorated, residents' income level declined, and industry competition intensified.